January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[eduggs]

We need a surface reflection in the southeast for the Thurs. event. Otherwise it's likely light rain/warm or an offshore low. Shortwave energy and low surface pressure in the Lakes region torches our lower levels. It's a symptom of a positively tilted trof collapsing on itself. We need more PVA in the south, not the Lakes. But we are moving away from that idea.

 

[eduggs]

Just now, Jt17 said:

Weathergeek on one end, you on the other and reality hopefully in the middle.


.

Good luck with that.

[WeatherGeek2025]

Just now, Jt17 said:

Weathergeek on one end, you on the other and reality hopefully in the middle.


.

I haven't been this excited for a big snow event in 5 years! I know it's still far but him saying it was a disappointing 12z runs in my opinion is not right, the biggest potential for big storms not 2-4 inches snow is next week

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Disappointing 12z runs. Guidance starting to converge on a miss next week just as we approach a more reliable model time frame. Ensembles have consistently shown very little snow through the end of next week. Next weekend's potential event is still in fantasy land so hard to get excited about anything that far away.

agree - still nothing to get specifically  excited about except for the POTENTIAL

[Jt17]

agree - still nothing to get specifically  excited about except for the POTENTIAL

Then you don't agree. Because he's dismissing the potential


.

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, Jt17 said:

Then you don't agree. Because he's dismissing the potential


.

so give us your take on the models at 12Z...........

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

I haven't been this excited for a big snow event in 5 years! I know it's still far but him saying it was a disappointing 12z runs in my opinion is not right, the biggest potential for big storms not 2-4 inches snow is next week

It wasn't a good 12z cycle because the modeled trof structure got more hostile for a big east coast event on every single model. And this is occurring during a time period where the run-to-run variability begins to significantly decrease. This is a difficult setup to get high QPF along the coast. There's a reason why so few individual ensemble members on the EPS, GEFS, or GEPS over the past few days have shown big hits. It could definitely happen next week - and I'm rooting as hard as anyone. But right now, statistically, we are more likely to be skunked than to get a major snowstorm.

[eduggs]

12z GFS is closest to an east coast snowstorm. It has a thin, high amplitude trof that rapidly takes on a negative tilt. This is at the extreme end of its multi-day ensemble spread. And it still misses well east. Then look at the CMC, ICON, and UK. All not close. GFS-AI and ECM are less dreadful but not great. Any reasonable look at this would have to conclude that an east coast snowstorm next week is a longshot at this juncture. I really really hope it changes for the better. But if we want to be rational, we should acknowledge the situation for what it is.

[jm1220]

35 minutes ago, eduggs said:

We need a surface reflection in the southeast for the Thurs. event. Otherwise it's likely light rain/warm or an offshore low. Shortwave energy and low surface pressure in the Lakes region torches our lower levels. It's a symptom of a positively tilted trof collapsing on itself. We need more PVA in the south, not the Lakes. But we are moving away from that idea.

 

I won’t be in town therefore it’s guaranteed to hit. 

[donsutherland1]

Although the events are still outside ability of the operational guidance to reliably resolve the synoptic details, the 12z guidance continues to be encouraging. It it consistent with the ongoing and incredibly orderly pattern evolution that has been underway since the start of January. In that evolution, cold should begin to return next week. Afterward, as the PNA rises, opportunities for snowfall should begin to increase.

As noted previously, both severe cold and significant snowfall are unlikely through at least mid-January. The transition to a more wintry pattern probably won't be completed by then. But shortly afterward, the probability of snowfall should increase. The probability of moderate or significant snowfalls would be higher if a PNA+ can develop and then be sustained. Arctic air might begin to get involved around or after January 20th.

The overall consensus in the guidance is that a general WPO-/EPO-/AO- pattern will develop just after mid-month. Such patterns in combination with a PNA+ are 1.7 times more likely to see one or more days with a 4" or above snowfall than when combined with a PNA-.  Regardless of the state of the PNA, those patterns have seen measurable snowfall nearly once every five days, which is 1.6X climatology (1980-2025). 

As for the 12z GFS's systems during the roughly 168-hour and 222-hour timeframes, it's far too soon to resolve details. That there's activity is sufficient. In general, if things progress as has often occurred during the kind of pattern evolution described above, a delay in the first event would allow the trough more time to sharpen before the storm's development/arrival. That would increase prospects of its having a more impactful track than shown on the 12z GFS. The second system, as things currently stands, likely has the higher probability of taking an impactful track. Although its solution is different, the latter timeframe has support from the GGEM. Model skill at that timeframe is low. For now, it's more useful to stick with the overall pattern progression described above, avoid speculating over synoptic details that the guidance cannot resolve at these timeframes, and leave the details concerning potential events for later. That there's potential is what's both important and encouraging.

[Jt17]

so give us your take on the models at 12Z...........

A bit more intriguing than previous runs. Which is why disappointing is an odd characterization for something that showed improvement. Expecting most of the models to suddenly show a great solution a week out is silly. A lot of potential there.


.

[WeatherGeek2025]

11 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

I won’t be in town therefore it’s guaranteed to hit. 

John I hope you have safe travels and we get a big hit we really need it!

[eduggs]

The ECM-AI is another model that looks worse than 6z. Even as early as 5 days out, it's clear aloft that Thurs. will be a miss. There is still time, but synoptic details and trends do matter at this time range.

[Stormlover74]

I'm glad tomorrow is only rain because it will be a real nailbiter between some places getting anywhere from a quarter inch to over an inch with areas to the south getting 1 to 2" and a very sharp cutoff

[Wannabehippie]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

the cold spell ended Tuesday-it's like warm into next week so that's 8-10 days at least

That feels like a typical January thaw. 

[Krs4Lfe]

2 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

That feels like a typical January thaw. 

Been very warm this week. Around low 50s past few days, and looks like we continue with the 40s until mid-late next week. The models rushed the pattern change back to cold. Still warm and mild for the foreseeable future. Thursday's storm threat has essentially dissipated (not for the south though) but trough seems to be too positively tilted to get it up to the coast. The follow up next weekend is too warm on the Euro and is in fantasy range anyway. Nothing to get excited about aside from the cold air returning mid week next week 

[Brian5671]

5 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said:

That feels like a typical January thaw. 

Definitely.   But it's definitely sizeable.   A 3-5 day stretch would be a break in the cold.   Some models don't really show any true arctic air til 1/20 so could be a 2 week stretch of average to above average.

[MJO812]

6 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Been very warm this week. Around low 50s past few days, and looks like we continue with the 40s until mid-late next week. The models rushed the pattern change back to cold. Still warm and mild for the foreseeable future. Thursday's storm threat has essentially dissipated (not for the south though) but trough seems to be too positively tilted to get it up to the coast. The follow up next weekend is too warm on the Euro and is in fantasy range anyway. Nothing to get excited about aside from the cold air returning mid week next week 

Another hilarious post from you.

[BoulderWX]

39 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Been very warm this week. Around low 50s past few days, and looks like we continue with the 40s until mid-late next week. The models rushed the pattern change back to cold. Still warm and mild for the foreseeable future. Thursday's storm threat has essentially dissipated (not for the south though) but trough seems to be too positively tilted to get it up to the coast. The follow up next weekend is too warm on the Euro and is in fantasy range anyway. Nothing to get excited about aside from the cold air returning mid week next week 

I mean this as nicely as possible but you may be better served by reading more and posting less. The amount of posts you’ve shared that make little to no sense and provide no value is kind of baffling. A little self awareness goes a long way!

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, North and West said:

I hope the new year can bring you happiness.

Same to you. 

[NorthShoreWx]

5 hours ago, SACRUS said:

...

1996: Sub-freezing temperatures severely damaged vegetable crops with losses estimated over $2 million dollars in Hillsborough and Lee counties; with minor damage to the citrus crop in Pasco County, Florida. Several tropical fish farms lost over 50% of their harvest with the estimated loss at $5.5 million dollars. Locations across Florida and the East that reported record low temperatures for the date included: Elkins, WV: -8°, Islip, NY: 14°-Tied

 

Today's record low for Islip is -4 from 1968.  

[bluewave]

30 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Today's record low for Islip is -4 from 1968.  

The 1960s had the best Long Island and surrounding area radiational cooling following the big snowstorms of that era. 

 for January 21, 1961 through January 31, 1961
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	SHRUB OAK	COOP	-25
NY	CARMEL	COOP	-24
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	-21
CT	WESTBROOK	COOP	-21
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	-20
CT	WATERBURY RADIO WBRY	COOP	-19
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	-18
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	-18
CT	MOUNT CARMEL	COOP	-17
NY	SUFFERN	COOP	-16
CT	DANBURY	COOP	-16
NY	BEDFORD HILLS	COOP	-16
NY	STEWART FIELD	WBAN	-15
NJ	WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM	COOP	-14
CT	GROTON	COOP	-14
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	-13
NY	PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	-12
CT	COLCHESTER 2 W	COOP	-12
NJ	LITTLE FALLS	COOP	-11
NY	MIDDLETOWN 2 NW	COOP	-10
NY	SCARSDALE	COOP	-10
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	-10
NJ	ELIZABETH	COOP	-10
CT	MIDDLETOWN 4 W	COOP	-10
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	-7
CT	NORWALK GAS PLANT	COOP	-7
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	-7
CT	NEW HAVEN TWEED AP	WBAN	-7
NY	HEMPSTEAD GARDEN CITY	COOP	-2
NY	SETAUKET STRONG	COOP	-2
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	-2
NY	BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	-2
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	-1
NJ	PATERSON	COOP	-1
NY	WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP	WBAN	-1

 

Monthly Snowfall Data for January 1961 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	WARWICK	COOP	45.2
NY	GARDNERVILLE	COOP	44.0
NJ	GREENWOOD LAKE	COOP	37.6
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	37.2
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	35.9
CT	WOLCOTT RESERVOIR	COOP	33.5
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	32.7
NJ	PATERSON	COOP	32.5
NJ	MAHWAH	COOP	32.0
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	31.1
NJ	MIDLAND PARK	COOP	31.0
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	31.0
NY	SCARSDALE	COOP	30.9
NY	CARMEL	COOP	30.0
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	29.0
NY	STEWART FIELD	WBAN	28.0
NY	BEDFORD HILLS	COOP	27.7
NJ	RINGWOOD	COOP	27.5
NY	SHRUB OAK	COOP	27.5
NY	BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	27.4
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	27.0
CT	MIDDLETOWN 4 W	COOP	26.2
CT	COCKAPONSET RANGER STA	COOP	25.0
NJ	WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM	COOP	24.0
NJ	LITTLE FALLS	COOP	22.8
CT	WATERBURY RADIO WBRY	COOP	22.5
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	22.2
NY	PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	21.6
NY	NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS	COOP	21.5
NY	WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP	WBAN	21.5
NJ	CEDAR GROVE	COOP	21.0
NY	SUFFERN	COOP	20.6
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	20.5
NJ	IRVINGTON	COOP	20.5
NY	HEMPSTEAD GARDEN CITY	COOP	20.5
CT	COLCHESTER 2 W	COOP	20.2
NY	NEW YORK LAUREL HILL	COOP	20.0
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	20.0
CT	DANBURY	COOP	20.0
CT	NEW HAVEN TWEED AP	WBAN	20.0
CT	GROTON	COOP	20.0

Data for February 7, 1967 through February 14, 1967
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	STEWART FIELD	WBAN	-20
NY	SHRUB OAK	COOP	-16
NY	MIDDLETOWN 2 NW	COOP	-16
CT	COLCHESTER 2 W	COOP	-15
CT	WESTBROOK	COOP	-15
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	-14
NY	CARMEL	COOP	-12
CT	MOUNT CARMEL	COOP	-12
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	-11
CT	DANBURY	COOP	-10
CT	MIDDLETOWN 4 W	COOP	-10
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	-10
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	-10
CT	GROTON	COOP	-9
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	-9
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	-9
NY	SUFFERN	COOP	-8
CT	NORWALK GAS PLANT	COOP	-7
NY	SCARSDALE	COOP	-6
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	-6
NY	YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W	COOP	-5
NY	WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP	WBAN	-5
NY	BEDFORD HILLS	COOP	-4
NJ	WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM	COOP	-4
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	-4
NY	PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	-4
CT	NEW HAVEN TWEED AP	WBAN	-3
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	-2
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	-2
NJ	LITTLE FALLS	COOP	-2
NY	HEMPSTEAD GARDEN CITY	COOP	-1

 

Monthly Snowfall Data for February 1967 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

CT	WOLCOTT RESERVOIR	COOP	34.2
CT	COLCHESTER 2 W	COOP	33.2
CT	EASTON RESERVOIR	COOP	32.5
CT	COCKAPONSET RANGER STA	COOP	32.3
NY	STEWART FIELD	WBAN	32.1
NY	WARWICK	COOP	32.1
CT	DANBURY	COOP	31.6
NY	BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	30.5
NY	SCARSDALE	COOP	30.5
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	29.6
NY	NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS	COOP	29.5
CT	TRAP FALLS RESERVOIR	COOP	29.5
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	29.1
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	28.6
NY	BEDFORD HILLS	COOP	28.5
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	28.1
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	28.0
NY	PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	27.8
NY	NEW YORK LAUREL HILL	COOP	27.7
CT	WESTBROOK	COOP	27.6
NJ	MIDLAND PARK	COOP	27.5
NY	WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP	WBAN	27.3
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	27.0
NY	CARMEL	COOP	27.0
NJ	PATERSON	COOP	26.8
NJ	WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM	COOP	26.6
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	26.3
NY	YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W	COOP	26.0
NY	SHRUB OAK	COOP	25.5
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	25.4
CT	NEW HAVEN TWEED AP	WBAN	25.3
CT	MIDDLETOWN 4 W	COOP	25.3
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	25.3
NY	GARDNERVILLE	COOP	25.0
CT	MOUNT CARMEL	COOP	24.6
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	24.3
CT	NORWALK GAS PLANT	COOP	24.3
NY	NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN	COOP	24.0
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	24.0
NY	HEMPSTEAD GARDEN CITY	COOP	23.8
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	23.7
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	23.6
NJ	GREENWOOD LAKE	COOP	20.5
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	20.0

 

[NEG NAO]

[NorthShoreWx]

8 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The 1960s had the best Long Island and surrounding area radiational cooling following the big snowstorms of that era. 

 for January 21, 1961 through January 31, 1961
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	SHRUB OAK	COOP	-25
NY	CARMEL	COOP	-24
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	-21
CT	WESTBROOK	COOP	-21
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	-20
CT	WATERBURY RADIO WBRY	COOP	-19
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	-18
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	-18
CT	MOUNT CARMEL	COOP	-17
NY	SUFFERN	COOP	-16
CT	DANBURY	COOP	-16
NY	BEDFORD HILLS	COOP	-16
NY	STEWART FIELD	WBAN	-15
NJ	WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM	COOP	-14
CT	GROTON	COOP	-14
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	-13
NY	PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	-12
CT	COLCHESTER 2 W	COOP	-12
NJ	LITTLE FALLS	COOP	-11
NY	MIDDLETOWN 2 NW	COOP	-10
NY	SCARSDALE	COOP	-10
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	-10
NJ	ELIZABETH	COOP	-10
CT	MIDDLETOWN 4 W	COOP	-10
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	-7
CT	NORWALK GAS PLANT	COOP	-7
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	-7
CT	NEW HAVEN TWEED AP	WBAN	-7
NY	HEMPSTEAD GARDEN CITY	COOP	-2
NY	SETAUKET STRONG	COOP	-2
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	-2
NY	BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	-2
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	-1
NJ	PATERSON	COOP	-1
NY	WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP	WBAN	-1

 

Monthly Snowfall Data for January 1961 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	WARWICK	COOP	45.2
NY	GARDNERVILLE	COOP	44.0
NJ	GREENWOOD LAKE	COOP	37.6
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	37.2
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	35.9
CT	WOLCOTT RESERVOIR	COOP	33.5
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	32.7
NJ	PATERSON	COOP	32.5
NJ	MAHWAH	COOP	32.0
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	31.1
NJ	MIDLAND PARK	COOP	31.0
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	31.0
NY	SCARSDALE	COOP	30.9
NY	CARMEL	COOP	30.0
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	29.0
NY	STEWART FIELD	WBAN	28.0
NY	BEDFORD HILLS	COOP	27.7
NJ	RINGWOOD	COOP	27.5
NY	SHRUB OAK	COOP	27.5
NY	BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	27.4
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	27.0
CT	MIDDLETOWN 4 W	COOP	26.2
CT	COCKAPONSET RANGER STA	COOP	25.0
NJ	WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM	COOP	24.0
NJ	LITTLE FALLS	COOP	22.8
CT	WATERBURY RADIO WBRY	COOP	22.5
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	22.2
NY	PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	21.6
NY	NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS	COOP	21.5
NY	WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP	WBAN	21.5
NJ	CEDAR GROVE	COOP	21.0
NY	SUFFERN	COOP	20.6
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	20.5
NJ	IRVINGTON	COOP	20.5
NY	HEMPSTEAD GARDEN CITY	COOP	20.5
CT	COLCHESTER 2 W	COOP	20.2
NY	NEW YORK LAUREL HILL	COOP	20.0
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	20.0
CT	DANBURY	COOP	20.0
CT	NEW HAVEN TWEED AP	WBAN	20.0
CT	GROTON	COOP	20.0

Data for February 7, 1967 through February 14, 1967
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

NY	STEWART FIELD	WBAN	-20
NY	SHRUB OAK	COOP	-16
NY	MIDDLETOWN 2 NW	COOP	-16
CT	COLCHESTER 2 W	COOP	-15
CT	WESTBROOK	COOP	-15
NY	ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	-14
NY	CARMEL	COOP	-12
CT	MOUNT CARMEL	COOP	-12
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	-11
CT	DANBURY	COOP	-10
CT	MIDDLETOWN 4 W	COOP	-10
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	-10
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	-10
CT	GROTON	COOP	-9
CT	NORWICH PUBLIC UTILITY PLANT	COOP	-9
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	-9
NY	SUFFERN	COOP	-8
CT	NORWALK GAS PLANT	COOP	-7
NY	SCARSDALE	COOP	-6
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	-6
NY	YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W	COOP	-5
NY	WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP	WBAN	-5
NY	BEDFORD HILLS	COOP	-4
NJ	WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM	COOP	-4
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	-4
NY	PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	-4
CT	NEW HAVEN TWEED AP	WBAN	-3
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	-2
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	-2
NJ	LITTLE FALLS	COOP	-2
NY	HEMPSTEAD GARDEN CITY	COOP	-1

 

Monthly Snowfall Data for February 1967 for Upton NY NWS CWA
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

CT	WOLCOTT RESERVOIR	COOP	34.2
CT	COLCHESTER 2 W	COOP	33.2
CT	EASTON RESERVOIR	COOP	32.5
CT	COCKAPONSET RANGER STA	COOP	32.3
NY	STEWART FIELD	WBAN	32.1
NY	WARWICK	COOP	32.1
CT	DANBURY	COOP	31.6
NY	BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	30.5
NY	SCARSDALE	COOP	30.5
NY	WESTCHESTER CO AP	WBAN	29.6
NY	NY WESTERLEIGH STAT IS	COOP	29.5
CT	TRAP FALLS RESERVOIR	COOP	29.5
NJ	PLAINFIELD	COOP	29.1
NJ	CHARLOTTEBURG RESERVOIR	COOP	28.6
NY	BEDFORD HILLS	COOP	28.5
NY	DOBBS FERRY-ARDSLEY	COOP	28.1
NY	MINEOLA	COOP	28.0
NY	PATCHOGUE 2 N	COOP	27.8
NY	NEW YORK LAUREL HILL	COOP	27.7
CT	WESTBROOK	COOP	27.6
NJ	MIDLAND PARK	COOP	27.5
NY	WESTHAMPTON GABRESKI AP	WBAN	27.3
NJ	CANOE BROOK	COOP	27.0
NY	CARMEL	COOP	27.0
NJ	PATERSON	COOP	26.8
NJ	WANAQUE RAYMOND DAM	COOP	26.6
NY	WEST POINT	COOP	26.3
NY	YORKTOWN HEIGHTS 1W	COOP	26.0
NY	SHRUB OAK	COOP	25.5
NJ	NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP	WBAN	25.4
CT	NEW HAVEN TWEED AP	WBAN	25.3
CT	MIDDLETOWN 4 W	COOP	25.3
CT	STAMFORD 5 N	COOP	25.3
NY	GARDNERVILLE	COOP	25.0
CT	MOUNT CARMEL	COOP	24.6
NY	RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	24.3
CT	NORWALK GAS PLANT	COOP	24.3
NY	NEW YORK AVE V BROOKLYN	COOP	24.0
CT	IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT	WBAN	24.0
NY	HEMPSTEAD GARDEN CITY	COOP	23.8
NY	PORT JERVIS	COOP	23.7
NY	NY CITY CENTRAL PARK	WBAN	23.6
NJ	GREENWOOD LAKE	COOP	20.5
NY	LAGUARDIA AIRPORT	WBAN	20.0

 

The Jan 1961 period is when BNL recorded its lowest ever at -23⁰ F (-31C).

Surprised that KFOK only got down to -1 during that period.

 

[bluewave]

16 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

Our area generally doesn’t get big East Coast snowstorms when there is a strong kicker coming through the Great Lakes and a weak cold high pressure in between.

 

[Brian5671]

11 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

I'd like to see that west coast ridge a bit further east-our best coastals come with a ridge axis over Boise

[snowman19]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

We generally don’t get big East Coast snowstorms when there is a strong kicker coming through the Great Lakes and a weak cold high pressure in between.

 

That definitely does not look like a Miller A KU setup to me. Maybe @forkyfork can chime in? 

[bluewave]

4 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

The Jan 1961 period is when BNL recorded its lowest ever at -23⁰ F (-31C).

Surprised that KFOK only got down to -1 during that period.

 

That is probably due to the old weather instruments being in a warmer area with less cold air drainage than where the current FOK ASOS is located.

[NorthShoreWx]

12 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

That looks like a MA blockbuster with snow to mix and dry slot NYC to BOS.  I guess I'm still a little disappointed about 1993 

[NorthShoreWx]

1 minute ago, bluewave said:

That is probably due to the old weather instruments being in a warmer area with less cold air drainage than where the current FOK ASOS is located.

Could be.  I'll check that or when I get a moment.  I think there were some negative mid-teens in places here around 1984 and 2009 as well, but usually my memory of radiational cooling fades as fast as the temperature rises when the wind picks up.