January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[WestBabylonWeather]

18 minutes ago, Prue11 said:

Yeah westbabylonweather was also claiming that burning1/4 tank in a month was a lot for him? Seems good to normal to me. My house is 1100 square foot and I’ll burn 1/3-1/2 a tank during the most severe cold weather here on LI during winter 

Yea for me a quarter tank in a month is a lot. 

[MJO812]

Gfs showing a coastal . Big potential for mid month. 

[NorthShoreWx]

This morning's snow clearing shenanigans:

https://www.instagram.com/reel/DTG0DRUCCVW/?igsh=MTRsN3l5MXN1MzJiaA==

 

[Dark Star]

4 hours ago, eduggs said:

This was not a "four to eight inch" snowstorm for the NYC area. The map of NWS snowfall reportsid it was.  visually describes the event quite well. Please stop perpetuating this fantasy. Facts matter.

I never said it was. I was disputing that very fact...

[psv88]

9 minutes ago, Dark Star said:

I never said it was. I was disputing that very fact...

He just wants to argue with someone about anything 

[brooklynwx99]

i’m liking that 14-15th window as the PNA spikes… def some phasing potential with split flow showing

[SACRUS]

5 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Very warm compared to rest of area

38 for the high in line with C/NE NJ where is was clear and fully sunny most of the morning till around 1:30

New Brnswck: 37
EWR: 38

[NEG NAO]

This polar vortex stretching again

[NEG NAO]

Good enough

[BoulderWX]

Light snow again… I’m kind of loving this winter 

[sussexcountyobs]

Currently:

Snow flurries. 24.1°

[Krs4Lfe]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

Good enough

The persistent warmth in the central and west US is almost unprecedented. Most of those places have barely seen any snow, if at all. Winter has largely been confined to the Midwest and northeast. It is becoming more evident that this is not the winter for cross country storms, at least not yet. We have a higher chance of scoring big when we’re not the only ones with the cold air

[psv88]

Went down to Huntington harbor today and it was mainly ice free. A few spots close to the shoreline had ice, but last year had more ice at its coldest. 
 

we’ve had many nights in the 20s but none below 10 and only a few in teens. We’ll need a stronger push of arctic air to really freeze the harbor 

[JustinRP37]

I have a Smart Oil tank monitor on a 275 gallon tank. I’ve been burning about 4.5 gallons a day the past few weeks when we are home all day and heat to 70 during the day. 64 upstairs and 60 downstairs when we are sleeping and 62 when we are gone for more than a few hours. We also heat the partially finished basement when we are home and my son goes down to play. All in all, a little under 1750 sq feet heated. Been told the house is pretty well insulated but I do have to replace the seal on the front door. 

[Wxoutlooksblog]

6 hours ago, eduggs said:

The subtropical jet has engaged periodically since early December, but mostly with a trof in the Southwest and typically leading to some kind of storm through the Lakes region. The Thurs-Fri event forecasted this week is a good example. I do agree about the likelihood of continued dry conditions.

I was more referring to the subtropical jet with reference to our snow events this season. I should have been clearer.

WX/PT

[Wxoutlooksblog]

4 hours ago, bluewave said:

It would be nice if we could set some new type of storm track precedent for the post January 20th  period during La Nina winters. Since nearly all of our February La Nina KU events were preceded by KU events in December to mid January since the 1960s.

We haven’t really had a February or even March KU during a La Niña without at least a significant coastal snowstorm track earlier in the season for some portion of the I-95 corridor.

The late January and early February 2021 KU was preceded by the KU in mid December 2020. The burst of record March 2018 KU activity followed the record early January 950 mb benchmark blizzard. The February and March 2017 KUs came after the early January one.

The March 2009 KU  followed the mid January 2009 one. The record February 2006 KU around NYC Metro event was two months after the early December 2005 coastal snowstorm track that came in just under official KU status. The March 2001 sub KU coastal track snowstorm followed official KUs in late December and January. 
 

 

I was thinking that for later in January, even if the subtropical jet became a little more active, the tendency would be for the dominant northern stream to result in either phase up too soon with a storm hooking too far to the left or the streams remaining separate too long and a storm being overly suppressed initially. 

WX/PT

[psv88]

12 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I was thinking that for later in January, even if the subtropical jet became a little more active, the tendency would be for the dominant northern stream to result in either phase up too soon with a storm hooking too far to the left or the streams remaining separate too long and a storm being overly suppressed initially. 

WX/PT

That’s the risk every year. Its why it’s rare to have a big snowstorm in NYC

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, Krs4Lfe said:

The persistent warmth in the central and west US is almost unprecedented. Most of those places have barely seen any snow, if at all. Winter has largely been confined to the Midwest and northeast. It is becoming more evident that this is not the winter for cross country storms, at least not yet. We have a higher chance of scoring big when we’re not the only ones with the cold air

Weak La Ninas arent good for the west

[nycwinter]

44 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Weak La Ninas arent good for the west

california begs to differ.. california had a lot of rain in weak l anina last 10 years..

[WeatherGeek2025]

7 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

california begs to differ.. california had a lot of rain in weak l anina last 10 years..

he meant warm

[Wxoutlooksblog]

I like the western ridge position and the fact that the se ridge is slightly suppressed. We'll see.

WX/PT

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I like the western ridge position and the fact that the se ridge is slightly suppressed. We'll see.

WX/PT

Huge ridge out west 

[WeatherGeek2025]

16 minutes ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

I like the western ridge position and the fact that the se ridge is slightly suppressed. We'll see.

WX/PT

imagine this thing phases in time? We could be talking feet of snow. 

[TriPol]

1 hour ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

imagine this thing phases in time? We could be talking feet of snow. 

Here we go..

[RU848789]

When almost every Op model and every ensemble mean for the past few days has been showing well below normal snowfall over the next 15 days for the 95 corridor (and even inland), despite what looks to be a more favorable pattern after the coming 4-5 day warm-up this week, it's hard to not be a bit concerned that the first 3 weeks in January will be well below normal in snowfall.  Hopefully that changes soon.  

[TriPol]

16 minutes ago, RU848789 said:

When almost every Op model and every ensemble mean for the past few days has been showing well below normal snowfall over the next 15 days for the 95 corridor (and even inland), despite what looks to be a more favorable pattern after the coming 4-5 day warm-up this week, it's hard to not be a bit concerned that the first 3 weeks in January will be well below normal in snowfall.  Hopefully that changes soon.  

I remember February 2006. Warm winter. Then, the post on Eastern. "For entertainment purposes only..." They showed the JMA. It worked out. All we need is one storm.

[Voyager]

11 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Yea for me a quarter tank in a month is a lot. 

I usually have to do four fillings on a 275 gallon tank per year. It's been generally been three in the colder months and one that carries me through summer. Most often the fill months are February, April, then October, December.

[495weatherguy]

2 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I usually have to do four fillings on a 275 gallon tank per year. It's been generally been three in the colder months and one that carries me through summer. Most often the fill months are October, December, February, and April.

So that breaks down to less than 100 gallons per month annually.

There are many ways to break it down, it seems that during the peak winter months you are burning 150 gallons per month, which is about 5 gallons per day.   Without knowing the particulars of your house, this seems reasonable for heating a house on Li

[Voyager]

1 hour ago, 495weatherguy said:

So that breaks down to less than 100 gallons per month annually.

There are many ways to break it down, it seems that during the peak winter months you are burning 150 gallons per month, which is about 5 gallons per day.   Without knowing the particulars of your house, this seems reasonable for heating a house on Li

Actually, I'm in the coal region of PA in Schuylkill County. I venture over here to read analysis, but rarely post out of my sub forum.

Generally, we're colder than you guys in the metro, but I live in a row where I'm insulated both left and right, so I only have two exposed walls, but the house is 110 years old, so not a lot of extra insulation. Still, I'm fairly happy with our oil consumption all things considered.

It could be worse. The single home across the street from me sees an oil truck every month in the winter.

[Volcanic Winter]

Starting off January with an average temp of 24.6 degrees, low max of 15 and high 36. I know it’s only a few days but interesting nonetheless. Cold start.