January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[TriPol]

Looks like January should start off cool with an otherwise near normal month temp and precip wise

[Krs4Lfe]

A potential fail mode or the next 2 weeks is if the pacific jet extension goes too far. We are having that jet extension soon and it causes the ridge to roll over and finally brings a change to the near coast to coast torch that has been occurring. However, if the jet extension goes too far, then we'll be flooded with pacific air which will still result in warm temperatures. Hopefully, that's not the case but it is good that we're having some pac jet extension otherwise we would be stuck in this current pattern which isn't conducive for cold or snow for most of US.   

[NEG NAO]

chance of  precip around NYC metro  from a possible wave developing near a cold front coming through the first couple days of the New Year

[snowman19]

20 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

chance of  precip around NYC metro  from a possible wave developing near a cold front coming through the first couple days of the New Year

After the absolutely abysmal performance by the GFS/GEFS today (and that’s putting it nicely), I wouldn’t believe anything it shows. It’s still trying to figure out today’s storm…maybe around 5:00 tonight, it should have it all figured out. In fact, if the GFS told me the sky is blue, I’d have to go outside and check it out for myself. It is simply dreadful and the worst model there is 

[NEG NAO]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

After the absolutely abysmal performance by the GFS/GEFS today (and that’s putting it nicely), I wouldn’t believe anything it shows. It’s still trying to figure out today’s storm…maybe around 5:00 tonight, it should have it all figured out. In fact, if the GFS told me the sky is blue, I’d have to go outside and check it out for myself. It is simply dreadful and the worst model there is 

12Z Euro showing  a possible wave - storm or whatever not just the GFS models haven't really been accurate past a few days

[MJO812]

35 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

chance of  precip around NYC metro  from a possible wave developing near a cold front coming through the first couple days of the New Year

Euro also shows this. Maybe we can beef this up to 1-2 inches.

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

After the absolutely abysmal performance by the GFS/GEFS today (and that’s putting it nicely), I wouldn’t believe anything it shows. It’s still trying to figure out today’s storm…maybe around 5:00 tonight, it should have it all figured out. In fact, if the GFS told me the sky is blue, I’d have to go outside and check it out for myself. It is simply dreadful and the worst model there is 

And no word from you about the Nam. 

[SnoSki14]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

After the absolutely abysmal performance by the GFS/GEFS today (and that’s putting it nicely), I wouldn’t believe anything it shows. It’s still trying to figure out today’s storm…maybe around 5:00 tonight, it should have it all figured out. In fact, if the GFS told me the sky is blue, I’d have to go outside and check it out for myself. It is simply dreadful and the worst model there is 

GFS wasn't abysmal. It just didn't handle the warm layers properly which it never does. That's where the Nam comes in. 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Euro also shows this. Maybe we can beef this up to 1-2 inches.

exactly 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

GFS wasn't abysmal. It just didn't handle the warm layers properly which it never does. That's where the Nam comes in. 

exactly - it had the storm many days in advance but to be fair other models did not pick up on that warm layer surging north so early in the storm - so GFS not alone screwing it up

[Jersey_Snowhole]

God lord. 

[donsutherland1]

January records for the New York City area:

[FPizz]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

And no word from you about the Nam. 

He's busted with everything hes said for about 90 days now.  Its been rough for him

[psv88]

The NAM at one point had Long Island changing to mostly sleet and barely any snow. It failed out here with the thermals big time. 

[psv88]

1 minute ago, NEG NAO said:

Weather models just output solutions using the data that are imputed into them and perform according to the way they are programmed containing various parameters - very complex. So every model is programmed differently. Thse reason each model outputs different solutions. Also No model will output a perfect solution that matches what ends up happening in real time because the atmosphere is constantly changing - so of course the NAM will not get everything right......

Euro was probably the best model with this overall from start to finish. 

[NEG NAO]

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Euro was probably the best model with this overall from start to finish. 

Thats why the Euro is rated as one of the superior models we have ...least amount of flaws in development 

[Nibor]

10 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Euro was probably the best model with this overall from start to finish. 

Lots of posters kept harping on the gfs and little was discussed about the euro. 

[NEG NAO]

18Z GFS still shows a wave of LP developing on a stalled out front and Upton believes it -so we might be tracking another one of these northern stream systems soon estimated arrival time Jan 1st or possibly 2nd

AFD from KOKX

[Krs4Lfe]

18 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

18Z GFS still shows a wave of LP developing on a stalled out front and Upton believes it -so we might be tracking another one of these northern stream systems soon estimated arrival time Jan 1st or possibly 2nd

AFD from KOKX

Looks more like snow squalls coming from Great Lakes and up north. Not really a clipper system. Spotty precip at best, just dry and strung out 

[NEG NAO]

18 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Looks more like snow squalls coming from Great Lakes and up north. Not really a clipper system. Spotty precip at best, just dry and strung out 

why don't you read the Upton AFD I attached ??- also snow squalls from the lakes don't usually reach into south jersey and beyond - glad you have this all figured out already...

[cleetussnow]

17 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Looks more like snow squalls coming from Great Lakes and up north. Not really a clipper system. Spotty precip at best, just dry and strung out 

What lake is the source of the squall in West Virginia? They’ve never experienced this phenomena you speak of, so do explain.  

[Jersey_Snowhole]

Yes please !!

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, NEG NAO said:

18Z GFS still shows a wave of LP developing on a stalled out front and Upton believes it -so we might be tracking another one of these northern stream systems soon estimated arrival time Jan 1st or possibly 2nd

AFD from KOKX

18z euro also shows this 

[NEG NAO]

5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

18z euro also shows this 

yes but earlier on the 1st - will be interesting to see how this evolves and if the developing LP taps additional moisture from the ocean

[psv88]

The EPO ridge and improving pacific makes January interesting. Best pattern we have seen in years coming imo

[EasternLI]

This winter is nothing like the other 2020's winters that everyone has PTSD from. Just look at how December has behaved. But don't only look at that. Look at how we're rolling forward into January now on the heels of that. Look at the big picture. It's true there is a stemwinder set to visit the great lakes region in the near term. There are blizzard warnings in the upper midwest stretching into the lakes. At the same time, there's blocking out in the Atlantic. It's been a long time since we've been faced with anything like what's going on. Reach back into your memory banks and recall that a stemwinder into the lakes, while there is blocking in the Atlantic, is the classic way to achieve a good old fashioned west based NAO block. Which is starting to become more clearly visible on the EPS now. While that's happening, the Pacific block which had been very persistent, is broken down due to a fortuitous Pacific jet extension. Which results in Aleutian troughing that forces a period of +PNA. Then even at the very end of this loop, look at what is happening. The Pacific pattern starts to retrograde. That is going to act to pull the +PNA ridging west and up into Alaska and beyond all of this we'll probably transition to a -EPO from there. Which you can start to make out on this loop with the height rises happening over Alaska, but also the falling heights in Canada and Hudson Bay. That would coincidently also be consistent with how weekly guidance is currently rolling all of this forward as well. Which, by the way, with this configuration if we did indeed follow that roadmap. We'd likely reload Canada with the arctic again. Plus we'd end up faced with a 500mb pattern which is the precursor to a PV split. Eyes wide open.

 

[mahk_webstah]

22 minutes ago, EasternLI said:

This winter is nothing like the other 2020's winters that everyone has PTSD from. Just look at how December has behaved. But don't only look at that. Look at how we're rolling forward into January now on the heels of that. Look at the big picture. It's true there is a stemwinder set to visit the great lakes region in the near term. There are blizzard warnings in the upper midwest stretching into the lakes. At the same time, there's blocking out in the Atlantic. It's been a long time since we've been faced with anything like what's going on. Reach back into your memory banks and recall that a stemwinder into the lakes, while there is blocking in the Atlantic, is the classic way to achieve a good old fashioned west based NAO block. Which is starting to become more clearly visible on the EPS now. While that's happening, the Pacific block which had been very persistent, is broken down due to a fortuitous Pacific jet extension. Which results in Aleutian troughing that forces a period of +PNA. Then even at the very end of this loop, look at what is happening. The Pacific pattern starts to retrograde. That is going to act to pull the +PNA ridging west and up into Alaska and beyond all of this we'll probably transition to a -EPO from there. Which you can start to make out on this loop with the height rises happening over Alaska, but also the falling heights in Canada and Hudson Bay. That would coincidently also be consistent with how weekly guidance is currently rolling all of this forward as well. Which, by the way, with this configuration if we did indeed follow that roadmap. We'd likely reload Canada with the arctic again. Plus we'd end up faced with a 500mb pattern which is the precursor to a PV split. Eyes wide open.

 

Good post. Thanks.