January 2026 OBS and Discussion

[TriPol]

Looks like January should start off cool with an otherwise near normal month temp and precip wise

[Krs4Lfe]

A potential fail mode or the next 2 weeks is if the pacific jet extension goes too far. We are having that jet extension soon and it causes the ridge to roll over and finally brings a change to the near coast to coast torch that has been occurring. However, if the jet extension goes too far, then we'll be flooded with pacific air which will still result in warm temperatures. Hopefully, that's not the case but it is good that we're having some pac jet extension otherwise we would be stuck in this current pattern which isn't conducive for cold or snow for most of US.   

[NEG NAO]

chance of  precip around NYC metro  from a possible wave developing near a cold front coming through the first couple days of the New Year

[snowman19]

20 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

chance of  precip around NYC metro  from a possible wave developing near a cold front coming through the first couple days of the New Year

After the absolutely abysmal performance by the GFS/GEFS today (and that’s putting it nicely), I wouldn’t believe anything it shows. It’s still trying to figure out today’s storm…maybe around 5:00 tonight, it should have it all figured out. In fact, if the GFS told me the sky is blue, I’d have to go outside and check it out for myself. It is simply dreadful and the worst model there is 

[NEG NAO]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

After the absolutely abysmal performance by the GFS/GEFS today (and that’s putting it nicely), I wouldn’t believe anything it shows. It’s still trying to figure out today’s storm…maybe around 5:00 tonight, it should have it all figured out. In fact, if the GFS told me the sky is blue, I’d have to go outside and check it out for myself. It is simply dreadful and the worst model there is 

12Z Euro showing  a possible wave - storm or whatever not just the GFS models haven't really been accurate past a few days

[MJO812]

35 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

chance of  precip around NYC metro  from a possible wave developing near a cold front coming through the first couple days of the New Year

Euro also shows this. Maybe we can beef this up to 1-2 inches.

[MJO812]

16 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

After the absolutely abysmal performance by the GFS/GEFS today (and that’s putting it nicely), I wouldn’t believe anything it shows. It’s still trying to figure out today’s storm…maybe around 5:00 tonight, it should have it all figured out. In fact, if the GFS told me the sky is blue, I’d have to go outside and check it out for myself. It is simply dreadful and the worst model there is 

And no word from you about the Nam. 

[SnoSki14]

15 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

After the absolutely abysmal performance by the GFS/GEFS today (and that’s putting it nicely), I wouldn’t believe anything it shows. It’s still trying to figure out today’s storm…maybe around 5:00 tonight, it should have it all figured out. In fact, if the GFS told me the sky is blue, I’d have to go outside and check it out for myself. It is simply dreadful and the worst model there is 

GFS wasn't abysmal. It just didn't handle the warm layers properly which it never does. That's where the Nam comes in. 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, MJO812 said:

Euro also shows this. Maybe we can beef this up to 1-2 inches.

exactly 

[NEG NAO]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

GFS wasn't abysmal. It just didn't handle the warm layers properly which it never does. That's where the Nam comes in. 

exactly - it had the storm many days in advance but to be fair other models did not pick up on that warm layer surging north so early in the storm - so GFS not alone screwing it up

[Jersey_Snowhole]

God lord. 

[donsutherland1]

January records for the New York City area: