Boxing Night Snow/Sleet/Ice Dec 26-27 Storm Thread/Obs.

[Voyager]

8 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

I think up towards I 80 down near I78 might be more impactful especially as ya go East. As far as the restrictions go I believe yes they are still level 3. I’m retired now so I’m not really in the loop anymore. Safe travels if ya have too. 

Thanks for the reply...

Hopefully you're enjoying retirement. I can't wait until I can do so. As for my travels, I don't know yet where I'm going today, but I most certainly want to be off the roads before the flakes and/or pellets fly.

As long as those restrictions hold, I can drop loads accordingly and shut it down. Legally, I suppose, I'm protected from any harsh repercussion from my employer.

[Kevin Reilly]

Increasing clouds red sky east losing the sun.  25f humidity 52% dewpoint 10f wind NNE 12 mph 

expecting 1.1” of snow followed by sleet 0.4 then freezing rain 0.1.

Those are my expectations. 

[systemfreeze64]

Just got approved to join yesterday, hoping for at least 3" of snow here in Allentown, PA but it'll be close with the amount of sleet it looks like we're set to get.

[Ralph Wiggum]

8 minutes ago, systemfreeze64 said:

Just got approved to join yesterday, hoping for at least 3" of snow here in Allentown, PA but it'll be close with the amount of sleet it looks like we're set to get.

Welcome aboard!

[PhiEaglesfan712]

45 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Increasing clouds red sky east losing the sun.  25f humidity 52% dewpoint 10f wind NNE 12 mph 

expecting 1.1” of snow followed by sleet 0.4 then freezing rain 0.1.

Those are my expectations. 

lol, this obs is way too cold. I can't wait to see obs posts like this again:

"Here in East Nantmeal we are already up to 73 degrees here at 1030am."

 

"77F

Trash cans went dancing"

"Am actually sitting at 82 at post time."

 

"81F

With the clouds, low DP, breeze...not bad at all out there."

"80F"

 

"Had a couple raindrops then a pretty cool sunset.

Maybe some showers late tonight / early morning? 

74F/ breezy"

"We reached 82.2 degrees here in East Nantmeal this PM"

[Birds~69]

24F, occasional breeze 

Thinking snow kickoff between 4-5pm, 2-3" then crunch.

Nowcast time...

[The Iceman]

I’m really expecting nothing more than a nuisance imby. Looks like very little snow and this isn’t a qpf bomb so probably an inch of sleet tops. That’s my expectations.

[LVblizzard]

This forecast is a real PITA. Toughest one in awhile and probably one of the top 5 most difficult since I started forecasting on my page 14 years ago.

[Newman]

1-2" of snow/sleet looks like a good bet for most. Latest 12z HRRR is 0.4-0.5" of QPF area wide. With 3:1 sleet ratios, that'll get you the 1-2" of accumulation. 

Let's say something like the 0z FV3 comes to fruition which keeps the warm nose/WAA a bit muted, then perhaps in heavier rates you could stay snow longer for some areas and eek out an additional inch of snow. But the latest 12z FV3 came in with a lot of sleet.

[penndotguy]

6 minutes ago, Newman said:

1-2" of snow/sleet looks like a good bet for most. Latest 12z HRRR is 0.4-0.5" of QPF area wide. With 3:1 sleet ratios, that'll get you the 1-2" of accumulation. 

Let's say something like the 0z FV3 comes to fruition which keeps the warm nose/WAA a bit muted, then perhaps in heavier rates you could stay snow longer for some areas and eek out an additional inch of snow. But the latest 12z FV3 came in with a lot of sleet.

That’s kinda my expectation out here in Berks, Mt Holly seems to have a pretty good handle on this one but it’s soon now casting will be interesting no doubt

[Birds~69]

1 hour ago, Voyager said:

Thanks for the reply...

Hopefully you're enjoying retirement. I can't wait until I can do so. As for my travels, I don't know yet where I'm going today, but I most certainly want to be off the roads before the flakes and/or pellets fly.

As long as those restrictions hold, I can drop loads accordingly and shut it down. Legally, I suppose, I'm protected from any harsh repercussion from my employer.

Have you ever jackknifed? It must be highly annoying to look out your passenger side and see your trailer pressed up against the window...

[penndotguy]

46 minutes ago, systemfreeze64 said:

Just got approved to join yesterday, hoping for at least 3" of snow here in Allentown, PA but it'll be close with the amount of sleet it looks like we're set to get.

Welcome to the insanity 

[JTA66]

18 hours ago, ChescoWx said:

That said many of us are more than 150% of normal snowfall and having a well below normal temperature December. We are about to see our 6th winter event of this young winter season. Snow begets snow and I very much suspect we have many more winter weather events in our future. Keep the faith those of you on Team Snow!

Agreed! While I still don’t think this will be a memorable winter and I’m sure we’ll have $hit the blind stretches, December has shown this winter can and will produce frozen. I’ll take it as a positive sign moving forward. As far as today’s storm…

Looks like a quick hitter, in this afternoon and out of here before midnight. Not too disappointed in the forecast cause I thought all along this wasn’t all snow imby. Again, it beats 33F and rain.

Happy Boxing Day!

[Newman]

7 minutes ago, penndotguy said:

That’s kinda my expectation out here in Berks, Mt Holly seems to have a pretty good handle on this one but it’s soon now casting will be interesting no doubt

Definitely time for nowcasting. The models are usually never perfect in nailing the warm nose and the timing of said warm nose. Who knows, maybe it comes in heavier and colder so areas thump for an hour or two and pick up more snow? Or maybe the warm nose is deeper and it's more freezing rain vs sleet? We'll see.

[LVblizzard]

Latest NAM has nearly 2” of pure sleet at ABE airport. I’d almost rather have rain…almost. Still better than the ice storm they’ll be getting south and west of Harrisburg.

[The Iceman]

34 minutes ago, JTA66 said:

Agreed! While I still don’t think this will be a memorable winter and I’m sure we’ll have $hit the blind stretches, December has shown this winter can and will produce frozen. I’ll take it as a positive sign moving forward. As far as today’s storm…

Looks like a quick hitter, in this afternoon and out of here before midnight. Not too disappointed in the forecast cause I thought all along this wasn’t all snow imby. Again, it beats 33F and rain.

Happy Boxing Day!

Even if I just get an inch out of this,  8.5” total in December is A+ territory especially of late. I think what this December has shown is that if we get blocking in Jan and feb we can still score. This December pattern has been far from a perfect look so it’s encouraging we’ve gotten as much as we have so far. 

[Birds~69]

From facebook, pretty much sums it up...

[LVblizzard]

I’m going with 1-3” for Allentown but it’s basically a crapshoot with how volatile that warm nose is. This is the type of storm where the airport sees nothing but sleet which barely accumulates an inch, while 20 miles away in Bangor they get 4-5”.

[ChescoWx]

East Nantmeal NW Chesco Cloudy skies with some virga approaching from the NW. 24.7 degrees DP 10.9

[Chadzachadam]

If I’ve learned anything about this type of storm it’s that the warm nose is always stronger/faster than progged. Maybe 1/4” of snow then sleet sleet sleet and some glaze is my forecast for Philly. Maybe an inch total. Best of luck to all

[CoolHandMike]

2 hours ago, PhiEaglesfan712 said:

lol, this obs is way too cold. I can't wait to see obs posts like this again:

"Here in East Nantmeal we are already up to 73 degrees here at 1030am."

 

"77F

Trash cans went dancing"

"Am actually sitting at 82 at post time."

 

"81F

With the clouds, low DP, breeze...not bad at all out there."

"80F"

 

"Had a couple raindrops then a pretty cool sunset.

Maybe some showers late tonight / early morning? 

74F/ breezy"

"We reached 82.2 degrees here in East Nantmeal this PM"

i nearly spit out my coffee just now.

25.8°F and 10°F DP. Lots of virga happening overhead. Sky looks kinda "pebbly" if that makes any sense.

[ChescoWx]

2 hours ago, systemfreeze64 said:

Just got approved to join yesterday, hoping for at least 3" of snow here in Allentown, PA but it'll be close with the amount of sleet it looks like we're set to get.

Welcome!!

[Birds~69]

26F/Cloudy

[systemfreeze64]

Looks like they're downgrading our area to a coating to an inch as it seems to be trending northward and going to be almost entirely sleet with less heavy bands in my neck of the woods. Ah well, I'll take whatever we get. 

[KamuSnow]

20 minutes ago, systemfreeze64 said:

Looks like they're downgrading our area to a coating to an inch as it seems to be trending northward and going to be almost entirely sleet with less heavy bands in my neck of the woods. Ah well, I'll take whatever we get. 

Hello and welcome! Not sure who "they" is, but I think 1 to 3 of snow sleet combo is a better forecast for Allentown.

[systemfreeze64]

18 minutes ago, KamuSnow said:

Hello and welcome! Not sure who "they" is, but I think 1 to 3 of snow sleet combo is a better forecast for Allentown.

accuweather for my town now showing likeliest amount total as coating to an inch, sorry. WFMZ still saying coating - 4", the winter weather advisory for my county at 1-3". I'm hopeful for higher ends, but was trying a reverse jinx post. 

[Birds~69]

Looks well organized...

27F/Cloudy

[RedSky]

One adjustment to my original thinking downgrading to 1" of snow from 2" and going with the same 1" of sleet, grauple and all the other frozen stuff then topped with .10-.20" ZR

The driveway and walkway will be a nightmare 

[penndotguy]

26F Dp7 that’s some dry air. Judging by the movement of thing on radar it’s looking less and less impactful, I guess itt expand a bit as it nears the Coast but that stuff out in front is cruising off to the NE

[KamuSnow]

1 hour ago, systemfreeze64 said:

accuweather for my town now showing likeliest amount total as coating to an inch, sorry. WFMZ still saying coating - 4", the winter weather advisory for my county at 1-3". I'm hopeful for higher ends, but was trying a reverse jinx post. 

Lol got it. Well, carry on!