Snow Potential Dec 26-27

[Nibor]

6 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

god this place is weenie central

We all know you’re one of us. Have a seat. 

[Stormlover74]

4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Winter storm watch for NYC. 4-8 inches

Mt holly too for 5 to 8

[BoulderWX]

Just now, forkyfork said:

not a single sounding posted in this thread. lots of kuchera maps though 

merry Christmas to you! This is a million times better than usual. Things can’t be perfect 

[wthrmn654]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Surprised they left E Suffolk out but these days they rarely put areas in they are not highly confident reach 6 or will have both snow/mixed precip

Yeah, I said the same thing,  I'll read about it on slack in a few mintues to see there thinking. 

[David-LI]

10 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

god this place is weenie central

[Stormlover74]

[sussexcountyobs]

Just got a text alert from EPAWA for Sussex county NJ. 

Snow arrives between 5-8pm Friday.

Heavy at times Friday night.

Ends as light snow Saturday morning. 

4-8" accumulation. 

I'm assuming the 4" amounts would be for SW Sussex, I guess he's figuring there might be some sleet there. I'm in NE Sussex county, so maybe 6-8" here.

[wthrmn654]

Looking at the individual locations for areas in eastern Suffolk they range from expected of 2-3 inches to high end numbers ranging from 4-5 or 6 inches in a few spots... 

 

Don't See the harm in including them as it's potential... downgrade to advisory if there not looking to see warning criteria.

 

There choices of advisories over warnings lately has been more questionable then usual imo.

 

Wind events especially. And even the last snow event...

[MJO812]

Haven't had a winter storm watch in years 

[cleetussnow]

9 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

god this place is weenie central

Why you got to harsh of everyone’s chill? It’s freaking Christmas for Christs sake.   Greta has left the chat for the next couple of weeks.

[Krs4Lfe]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Haven't had a winter storm watch in years 

We had one last February for 3-6” of snow, sleet, and ZR mix. But then it was downgraded to winter weather advisory with only 2-4” of snow and mix. Last winter storm warning was February 2024, for 5-8” of snow. We got 3-6” but most surrounding areas had 5-8”+. None in 2023, and then of course we had the 8-12” blizzard on 1/29/22. Four winter storm warnings in 2021 season. That was the last good winter in NYC

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Haven't had a winter storm watch in years 

I think there was one since December 2020 I just don’t remember when.   March 96 to December 29 2000 without one though still remains the most insane thing ever.  

[SnowDemon]

24 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

god this place is weenie central

Lol, this is how you know it's gonna snow.

[Krs4Lfe]

4 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I think there was one since December 2020 I just don’t remember when.   March 96 to December 29 2000 without one though still remains the most insane thing ever.  

NYC has had warning level snow since 1/19/22. Been almost 4 years. We did have a warning in February 2024, but it fell just short of warning level snow. (5.5+”) at the major measuring sites. So in that respect; we’re nearly tied for that 1996 to 2000 record. 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, Krs4Lfe said:

NYC has had warning level snow since 1/19/22. Been almost 4 years. We did have a warning in February 2024, but it fell just short of warning level snow. (5.5+”) at the major measuring sites. So in that respect; we’re nearly tied for that 1996 to 2000 record. 

We have had more legit threats overall though than we did in that stretch.  In hindsight 3/14/99 and 1/25/00 both should have had WSWs out but model hiccups and some gaffs by the NWS led to neither being forewarned.

[sussexcountyobs]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Haven't had a winter storm watch in years 

Really? I don't follow NYC forecasts very closely. But that seems amazing, and something I never realized? I can't remember 1 winter here in the last 33 years that we didn't have a winter storm watch, and or Warning.

[SnowGoose69]

2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Really? I don't follow NYC forecasts very closely. But that seems amazing, and something I never realized? I can't remember 1 winter here in the last 33 years that we didn't have a winter storm watch, and or Warning.

There's been many.  97-98 and 01-02 never had one for the 5 boroughs but may have had them NW but there's been quite a few winters with none.  Obviously forecasts 30-40 years ago were so poor we had many storms with WSWs issue that today never would have been out.  

[mob1]

While models do show a warm tongue aloft, on the GFS it's still below freezing on levels. Obviously for the models a bit more NE it's more dicey. 

[mob1]

Here's the RGEM, shows a very shallow level above freezing but it's only towards the tail end of the event and if rates are still decent enough maybe we can overcome it. It would still yield a beautiful front end thump regardless. 

[sussexcountyobs]

If this all plays out as expected? When was the last time Central Park recorded 10" of snow in December? And how did that winters final totals end up?

[nycwinter]

48 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Craig Allen

I'd probably extend the 6" area southeast

craig should the permanent weather forecaster on channel 2 and not lonnie quinn

[Stormlover74]

1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said:

If this all plays out as expected? When was the last time Central Park recorded 10" of snow in December? And how did that winters final totals end up?

2020 I think

[nycwinter]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

2020 I think

correct..

[hooralph]

2 hours ago, WestBabylonWeather said:

Starting at the Bronx and westchester border is upstate

 

96th street.

[SnowGoose69]

12 minutes ago, mob1 said:

While models do show a warm tongue aloft, on the GFS it's still below freezing on levels. Obviously for the models a bit more NE it's more dicey. 

GFS will always underdo mid-level warmth though in that scenario the flow aloft at the warmest level is like from 280, not as bad as it being from 230 but probably still verbatim underdone a bit.  Its why I said before you'll see ratios near 10:1 eventually, even if its 25F at the surface if you're -1C at 750 or 800

[donsutherland1]

9 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

If this all plays out as expected? When was the last time Central Park recorded 10" of snow in December? And how did that winters final totals end up?

2020. 10.5" in December (December 16-17 snowstorm) and 38.6" seasonal snowfall.

[MJO812]

15 years ago today we were tracking a monster storm. Today we are tracking its little brother for the same date lol

[weatherpruf]

36 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

We have had more legit threats overall though than we did in that stretch.  In hindsight 3/14/99 and 1/25/00 both should have had WSWs out but model hiccups and some gaffs by the NWS led to neither being forewarned.

87-93 was nearly as bad, i think two events in march 92 and the bust in 89 were about it, and i'm not sure 92 was more than an advisory.

[weatherpruf]

9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

15 years ago today we were tracking a monster storm. Today we are tracking its little brother for the same date lol

like comparing a chihuaha to a bernese mountain dog.....

[Brian5671]

too bad-if it were 2 days earlier....