White Christmas Miracle? December 23-24th

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, mahk_webstah said:

Nam joins gfs?

GFS is the higher end outlier....NAM is more like joining the rest of model consensus. 

[The 4 Seasons]

4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I did get a surprise 12-13” burger in Feb of 24…that’s been the highlight though. 

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/feb-13-2024

Last big one in the historic storms section due to the swath of 12-16" it left. That was the most recent 12"+ storm in CT. Unfortunately nothing last season. In fact, all of SNE managed to go a whole winter season without a 12"+ event. 

[The 4 Seasons]

Yeah, GFS has been pretty juiced up last 4 runs. Definitely the wettest model by a lot. I don't expect 18Z to be much different. 

[ORH_wxman]

There's def an OES sig on the Cape for later on Christmas Eve. Euro has been showing it and 18z NAM has it too. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Heavy heavy snow 

[Kitz Craver]

Happy the NAM is moving in the right direction with this. If it was steadfast in skimping SNE I’d be waving the Bruce Willis flares

[Kitz Craver]

GFS, blind squirrel finds its nut?

[ariof]

15 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/feb-13-2024

Last big one in the historic storms section due to the swath of 12-16" it left. That was the most recent 12"+ storm in CT. Unfortunately nothing last season. In fact, all of SNE managed to go a whole winter season without a 12"+ event. 

That was the great skunking for Eastern Mass. Sunday evening every model was predicting a foot of snow for most of SNE, the 12Z model suite (and maybe some of the 06Z suite) started backing off of it and by 18Z it was gone north and east of Connecticut.

This was the BOX AFD from 1614 on Monday for a storm on Tuesday:

Well, I'll get right to the point with this update, there's been a 
big change to the forecast this afternoon based on a remarkably late 
but notable trend in the 12z/18z guidance which now keeps the bulk 
of the snow centered over the south coast of southern New England. 
This change is due not only to a southern shift in the track of the 
low but also a notable shift in the 500 mb trough; with a slower and 
less amplified solution and the northern and southern stream energy 
failing to phase/strengthen as they pass through the region. This 
shift has notably moved the zone of mid level frontogenesis to the 
south, and since we typically see the best forcing/banding to the 
northwest of the maxima this places southeast MA/Cape Cod and 
southern RI in the bullseye. BUFKIT soundings do indicate decent 
omega (forcing for lift) within the dendritic snow growth zone 
further north into MA, so we should still see some decent snowfall 
there, but the maxima looks to be south and east. While this is 
remarkably late in the game for such a relatively big shift, nearly 
all of the 12Z guidance including the 12Z ECMWF, 18Z NAM, 18Z HRRR 
and more show it.

At this point, of course, most of the schools had canceled classes for Tuesday, a bunch of events were canceled, and the next day, aside from some minor accumulations on grass, anywhere northeast of Connecticut had a reasonably nice day. Toaster sales, however, were through the roof in the Boston area!

[WxWatcher007]

33 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I did get a surprise 12-13” burger in Feb of 24…that’s been the highlight though. 

One of the greats. Literally woke up unsure if I’d even see snow. 

25 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

https://www.jdjweatherconsulting.com/feb-13-2024

Last big one in the historic storms section due to the swath of 12-16" it left. That was the most recent 12"+ storm in CT. Unfortunately nothing last season. In fact, all of SNE managed to go a whole winter season without a 12"+ event. 

I think I’ve only had two 12+ events since moving back to CT in 2018. Brutal. 

[moneypitmike]

Good writeup from GYX

 

Snow begins to enter southwestern New Hampshire in the 8-9 am window Tuesday morning as surface low pressure approaches the region from the northwest, dragging a warm front up from the
southwest. Snow will then gradually overspread the area from southwest to northeast entering southern Maine, closer to the 1pm hour. Rates are expected to be generally light as forecast soundings now suggest minimal negative Omega values within the DGZ. However, with profiles also well below freezing the snow
character is expected to be on the fluffier side so it likely accumulates efficiently. This may lead to some travel impacts,particularly in New Hampshire, as early as late morning and early afternoon. Timing for impacts in Maine start later, buteveryone should expect a less then ideal evening commute. We are
generally looking at 2-5 inches across the area, with locally higher amounts, 6-8 inches, on the central Maine coastal plain. The lower end amounts look to be in southern and western New Hampshire as these locations end up on the outer fringes of the deepening low.

On the note of the locally higher amounts, guidance has had a consistently strong signal for the low deepening and closing off as it moves off the coast setting up an inverted trough back
across Maine. This has the look of a Norlun trough setup as onshore winds will funnel moisture off the ocean into the trough creating a locally higher band of QPF somewhere along the Maine coast. Models have been trending up with this locally higher QPF footprint in the range of 0.5-0.75 inches, and with snow ratio on the order of 12- 15:1 this could easily produce warning level snowfall. 

Norlun troughs are notoriously finicky withtheir footprint, sometimes being as much as 40 miles wide, but on the other extreme they have been as small as just impacting a few towns. They are also notorious for really putting down the
snow where they do form, so it is not out of the question for someone to end up with snowfall nearing a foot or more, but
again this would likely be isolated.

Due to the uncertainty, I`m not eager to upgrade the watch this forecast cycle, but the footprint is good. Hi-res models are locking on to the formation of a heavier snowband moving up the
coast with soundings showing much more negative Omega through the DGZ, that could push rates 1-2 inches per hour. The
fortunate thing is this looks to occur mostly late Tuesday night which should help keep travel impacts to a minimum and allow snow clearing operations to be unimpeded. The take away should
be 6-8 inches with isolated higher amounts near a foot possible within the current Watch area. I did go ahead with the Advisories as this is higher confidence and didn`t want to ignore the rest of the area due to the uncertainty along the
coast.

[ORH_wxman]

Just when you think we're getting some model convergence, the 18z RGEM drops a turd on our head. Looks like those paltry NAM runs from earlier. 

[Kitz Craver]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Just when you think we're getting some model convergence, the 18z RGEM drops a turd on our head. Looks like those paltry NAM runs from earlier. 

Cmon, damn

[Damage In Tolland]

HRRR ramped up too 

[weatherwiz]

Shoreline probably still cooked but this is still looking like a solid 1-2" for most and the lucky ones will grab 3...maybe even 4" for those super lucky. 

[DavisStraight]

36 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Good writeup from GYX

 

Snow begins to enter southwestern New Hampshire in the 8-9 am window Tuesday morning as surface low pressure approaches the region from the northwest, dragging a warm front up from the
southwest. Snow will then gradually overspread the area from southwest to northeast entering southern Maine, closer to the 1pm hour. Rates are expected to be generally light as forecast soundings now suggest minimal negative Omega values within the DGZ. However, with profiles also well below freezing the snow
character is expected to be on the fluffier side so it likely accumulates efficiently. This may lead to some travel impacts,particularly in New Hampshire, as early as late morning and early afternoon. Timing for impacts in Maine start later, buteveryone should expect a less then ideal evening commute. We are
generally looking at 2-5 inches across the area, with locally higher amounts, 6-8 inches, on the central Maine coastal plain. The lower end amounts look to be in southern and western New Hampshire as these locations end up on the outer fringes of the deepening low.

On the note of the locally higher amounts, guidance has had a consistently strong signal for the low deepening and closing off as it moves off the coast setting up an inverted trough back
across Maine. This has the look of a Norlun trough setup as onshore winds will funnel moisture off the ocean into the trough creating a locally higher band of QPF somewhere along the Maine coast. Models have been trending up with this locally higher QPF footprint in the range of 0.5-0.75 inches, and with snow ratio on the order of 12- 15:1 this could easily produce warning level snowfall. 

Norlun troughs are notoriously finicky withtheir footprint, sometimes being as much as 40 miles wide, but on the other extreme they have been as small as just impacting a few towns. They are also notorious for really putting down the
snow where they do form, so it is not out of the question for someone to end up with snowfall nearing a foot or more, but
again this would likely be isolated.

Due to the uncertainty, I`m not eager to upgrade the watch this forecast cycle, but the footprint is good. Hi-res models are locking on to the formation of a heavier snowband moving up the
coast with soundings showing much more negative Omega through the DGZ, that could push rates 1-2 inches per hour. The
fortunate thing is this looks to occur mostly late Tuesday night which should help keep travel impacts to a minimum and allow snow clearing operations to be unimpeded. The take away should
be 6-8 inches with isolated higher amounts near a foot possible within the current Watch area. I did go ahead with the Advisories as this is higher confidence and didn`t want to ignore the rest of the area due to the uncertainty along the
coast.

Pit 2 looks good for this, but like he said they're hard to forecast. NAM has the IT closer to me, we'll see.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

24 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Just when you think we're getting some model convergence, the 18z RGEM drops a turd on our head. Looks like those paltry NAM runs from earlier. 

RRFS too

[Sey-Mour Snow]

GFS cut back a good bit at 18z as expected..  has the “relative min “ from Waterbury to ORH

[SouthCoastMA]

nice rug pull at 18z. HRGEM is paltry

[tamarack]

5 hours ago, tamarack said:

GYX has a watch for the counties just to our south, advisory level here, about 3-5 with high ratio.  Family in SNJ is planning to head up tomorrow and can't start before noon, so may be driving their 15-passenger van in snow from Hartford north.  Last time they were here for Christmas was 2 years ago, and they didn't see a flake, not even a dirty snow pile (4"+ RA at 50-55° wiped everything), until the day they headed south.  Assuming they don't have any "adventures" tomorrow, they'll see fresh white this year.

Between the increasing snow forecasts for our area and the kids running thru norovirus (some at peak, some all better), the trip will be on Wednesday.  Dealing with Christmas Eve traffic seemed the better choice. 
GYX afternoon added an inch to the above 3-5.  Hoping for nice dendrites and 12-15:1 ratios rather than crummy flakes and 8-9:1.

[ORH_wxman]

7 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

GFS cut back a good bit at 18z as expected..  has the “relative min “ from Waterbury to ORH

Yeah…high outlier comes back to earth. Still think 1-3” away from immediate shore is the good play. 

[DavisStraight]

29 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

RRFS too

HRDPS too

[Damage In Tolland]

This hasn’t changed in like 5 days . 1-4” in SNE. Lowest valleys, shore .. highest hills and North of 90

[HoarfrostHubb]

Downeast Maine looks to be the place to be

[Layman]

4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Downeast Maine looks to be the place to be

[moneypitmike]

Right on me noggin!

[powderfreak]

57 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

HRDPS too

We take the herpes up this way.