White Christmas Miracle? December 23-24th

[dryslot]

We toss

[ORH_wxman]

We take OP GFS

[dendrite]

1 minute ago, dryslot said:

We toss

Yeah tough run up there. ICON and euro still want that more north.

Goofus took that surface low from like BUF to way south of ACK so the trough set up way south. Most of the models have been taking it from ART to off the coast of BVY which would be better for you and me. 

[CoastalWx]

Canadian way north but did come south.

[dendrite]

Yeah both CMC models are pretty far north with the surface relection. I’d probably toss the gfs for now on a possible part deux unless the euro comes in south of ART. 

[WxWatcher007]

I’ve liked this signal for like a week now. Trends overall continue to be good for many. Let’s bring it home. 

[dendrite]

Subtle difference with the handling of the vortmax by the gfs xmas eve morning. It drives the dPVA a lot more south while the other models curl it up into the GOM.

This is more about the inverted trough possibility and not the initial overrunning in SNE.

 

[WinterWolf]

7 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

I’ve liked this signal for like a week now. Trends overall continue to be good for many. Let’s bring it home. 

Yes sir…you’ve been on this. And let’s juice it up to a solid advisory event for SNE. If we could do that…I’d be close to average December snow. 

[bristolri_wx]

NBM looks decent considering time range.

 

[CoastalWx]

Ukie came south too

[40/70 Benchmark]

14 minutes ago, bristolri_wx said:

NBM looks decent considering time range.

 

Good look, esp. NOP

[40/70 Benchmark]

Tough to buy the GFS at this point, but something to watch....for now, consider that the spiked-eggnog outcome.

[dendrite]

EuroAI really likes SW ME. 

[CoastalWx]

6 minutes ago, dendrite said:

EuroAI really likes SW ME. 

Yeah PWM love there. Still like the look here overall. 

[dryslot]

12z Euro looks good.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Yeah PWM love there. Still like the look here overall. 

Ya AIFS ticked SE then IVT into Maine

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, dryslot said:

12z Euro looks good.

WB isn’t loading, good for all? Same as 6z? 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

WB isn’t loading, good for all? Same as 6z? 

Probably for him 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Loading early Tuesday now, it's colder and SE, maybe a hair less amped.. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Gfs / Icon seem to have the better idea overall . Makes sense 

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Ya AIFS ticked SE then IVT into Maine

12z Euro Op is similar

[Sey-Mour Snow]

ya Euro op and AIFS are a solid 1-3/2-4" area wide.. Not as juiced as 6z or GFS..

[DavisStraight]

20 minutes ago, dendrite said:

EuroAI really likes SW ME. 

And I like the EuroA1

[CoastalWx]

1-2 here on euro. Meh

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

1-2 here on euro. Meh

I was cautiously optimistic this morning thst we may actually be moving toward a halfway decent event, and then of course the euro comes out and looks mediocre.

itll nail this after being horrible the past two events 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

I’d love to verify the gfs OP here. Borderline warning. Everything else is kind of mediocre 

[radarman]

Out here I'm kind of thinking a March like system on Tuesday.  Cold column but warmish BL.  Elevation gradient locally.  Upside down with paste esp in the valley bottoms all stuck to trees by the end.  Inflow of moisture channeling up the valley, favoring hills EOR.  Low end advy event above 400' or so.  CMC like but not exactly.  We shall see.

[ORH_wxman]

1 hour ago, radarman said:

Out here I'm kind of thinking a March like system on Tuesday.  Cold column but warmish BL.  Elevation gradient locally.  Upside down with paste esp in the valley bottoms all stuck to trees by the end.  Inflow of moisture channeling up the valley, favoring hills EOR.  Low end advy event above 400' or so.  CMC like but not exactly.  We shall see.

I’m a little skeptical of BL warming that far into interior. 925 starts off pretty damned cold. Like -7ish. It does warm decently but that’s a lot of warming to happen in 6-8 hours to erode the sfc. Def vulnerable in the usual coastal plain spots where southerly flow hurts but up in your area and anywhere else deeper into interior I may hedge a little colder. Esp this time of year with really weak insolation. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

EURO looks decent here....but the usual, with the real good being 10mi north of me.

[40/70 Benchmark]