Possible Light Snowfall (1" - 4") on Tuesday Dec 23

[Northof78]

Most models have a light overrunning signal for Tuesday December 23rd for N NJ/NYC/S NY State/CT. 

New GFS signals a chance for 1" - 3" for most of the subforum. 

 

 

[Greg g]

I’m flying into HPN at 1;30 on Tuesday .. should still be able to make it you think? , I noticed they took off and landed during today’s weather you guys are having 

[SnoSki14]

Think this will favor SNE moreso than us but it's on the table. 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Think this will favor SNE moreso than us but it's on the table. 

I think the us in here that live in the north may get an inch or two out of it. 

[MJO812]

Nam and Icon

[Krs4Lfe]

29 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Nam and Icon

Verbatim looks like a dry slot over NYC, maybe some light snow but poor antecedent conditions would probably result in white rain with no accumulation. Would likely be a few inches of snow through New England though  

[SnowGoose69]

3 minutes ago, Krs4Lfe said:

Verbatim looks like a dry slot over NYC, maybe some light snow but poor antecedent conditions would probably result in white rain with no accumulation. Would likely be a few inches of snow through New England though  

The airmass believe it or not is better than it was with the last event.  At least to start.  Its 32/13 on the NAM at 12Z.  The bigger risk with this is it just is largely too far north in the end.

[Stormlover74]

Gfs is 2 to 4 for most around and north/west of the city

[MJO812]

5 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Gfs is 2 to 4 for most around and north/west of the city

6z continues the theme . More inland.

[MJO812]

6z euro and 6z ai

[MJO812]

Here is the rgem 

[Northof78]

6z GFS ups the ante, more moisture and a more robust system seems to be the trend. 2-4" for much of the forum

[MJO812]

11 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

6z GFS ups the ante, more moisture and a more robust system seems to be the trend. 2-4" for much of the forum

I think the snow sticks on colder surfaces for the city unless the precip rushes in faster than modeled.

[Northof78]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

I think the snow sticks on colder surfaces for the city unless the precip rushes in faster than modeled.

Not sure the surface will be a problem generally, but for city itself heat island always an issue unless really cold. 

[WeatherGeek2025]

the ground is going to be cold

 

[SnowGoose69]

54 minutes ago, Northof78 said:

Not sure the surface will be a problem generally, but for city itself heat island always an issue unless really cold. 

It should be cold enough easily, just need a decent shift south still to keep it all snow otherwise its quick inch to dry slot or light rain

[SnowGoose69]

The NAM appears to have NAM'd.  ICON/RGEM are about what I'd expect.  I think the Euro is a tad too far south with this right now.

[MJO812]

Just now, SnowGoose69 said:

The NAM appears to have NAM'd.  ICON/RGEM are about what I'd expect.  I think the Euro is a tad too far south with this right now.

Coating to inch for NYC with more to the north.

[MJO812]

Rgem

[Stormlover74]

1 hour ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

the ground is going to be cold

 

Its coming overnight with temps around freezing. Should be able to squeeze out an inch or so at central park before ending as drizzle. Unless the whole thing trends north. Still 3 days to go

[SnowGoose69]

RRFS is ridiculously south.  Probably can toss that.  I have not looked at it much past 48 but it seems less wacky and ugly overall than the NAM does beyond that period most of the time so I guess good news there as far as improvement with the new model

[SnowGoose69]

21 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Its coming overnight with temps around freezing. Should be able to squeeze out an inch or so at central park before ending as drizzle. Unless the whole thing trends north. Still 3 days to go

I've not seen us get snow this far south with a clipper that far north that I remember.  But its sort of a case of perfect timing here where it comes in after a fairly cold airmass is on its way out so you get overrunning snows.   Its somewhat similar to 12/27/84 though that was more just a mid or upper level wave inducing overrunning snows than it was a clipper/warm front feature. It shows you how snow is often more luck than anything else and how in -PNA patterns it is easier for us to get lucky than +PNA ones where its more often boom or bust nowadays.

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I've not seen us get snow this far south with a clipper that far north that I remember.  But its sort of a case of perfect timing here where it comes in after a fairly cold airmass is on its way out so you get overrunning snows.   Its somewhat similar to 12/27/84 though that was more just a mid or upper level wave inducing overrunning snows than it was a clipper/warm front feature. It shows you how snow is often more luck than anything else and how in -PNA patterns it is easier for us to get lucky than +PNA ones where its more often boom or bust nowadays.

And it was like 70 a day or two after that snow. There's pics of us playing in short sleeves with snow piles in the background 

[MJO812]

Gfs 

[NEG NAO]

11 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs 

IMO it is still too early to say if this is accurate or not - the last storm over performed in many areas - this will end up being a nowcasting event just like the last one.......

[psv88]

48 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

RRFS is ridiculously south.  Probably can toss that.  I have not looked at it much past 48 but it seems less wacky and ugly overall than the NAM does beyond that period most of the time so I guess good news there as far as improvement with the new model

RRFS was by far the best model for the last storm 

[snowman19]

49 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Gfs 

The GEFS doesn’t agree: 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=gefsens&p=sn10_acc-mean-imp&rh=2025122012&fh=90&r=us_ne&dpdt=&mc=&pwplus=1

[coastalplainsnowman]

2 hours ago, WeatherGeek2025 said:

the ground is going to be cold

 

Not to mention, being December 23rd it will be practically the best sun angle possible, especially at night.

[Stormlover74]

Not sure I get the reasoning behind why an inch of snow is not possible in this scenario 

[sussexcountyobs]

If we can get 3" out my way, that would put me around 15" for the season. Lake has been frozen,  and the young guys have been playing hockey for at least a week. Not a bad start to winter.