December 14th - Snow showers or Plowable snow?

[SouthCoastMA]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Need a lot more than that outside of the Cape/South coast

Yeah still not impressive. Quite possible all the models converge/compromise to a 1-3" type deal, which is still better than what the GFS is showing. 

[weatherwiz]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Need a lot more than that outside of the Cape/South coast

Wondering if maybe the GFS was a tad overdone with QPF in those areas. You get this random spike north with some of the higher QPF into the south coast but I mean I guess that is feasible. But its all going to come down to how much lift can be generated. This sounding looks pretty decent actually but IDK...I think any stronger lift is going to be more localized and with that it will be hard to sustain any kind of rates to readily accumulate, even with higher ratios. That's what is going to kill here...the overall rates are going to be very light and without the higher lift you still aren't going to produce great dendrites...except in the pockets of greater lift. 

[Cyclone-68]

Uggh. This is like fighting over a crust of stale bread. A couple of years ago this event would be barely acknowledged. But I get it. I do 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Canadian doesn’t look bad. Nice little event Boston PVD Southeast, especially cape 

[WinterWolf]

GOOFUS might be last to the party…it’s notorious for that too. 

[MJO812]

8 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

GOOFUS might be last to the party…it’s notorious for that too. 

Yep. Happens every storm. 

[CoastalWx]

Just now, MJO812 said:

Yep. Happens every storm. 

Except the last one 

[moneypitmike]

53 minutes ago, QuietCorner said:

 

Glad we have a thread.

[H2Otown_WX]

25 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Except the last one 

Yeah, the Euro got taken to the woodshed on that one. Kept trying to show southeast CT/RI/MA blizzards.

[CoastalWx]

12z euro AI very close to 6z. 

[Kitz Craver]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

12z euro AI very close to 6z. 

Did the robot or OP come in hot at 6z?

[ORH_wxman]

12z euro backed down a little from the 06z “zonked” run…no surprise. Still a decent event for far Se areas. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Kitz Craver said:

Did the robot or OP come in hot at 6z?

Both 6z euro op and euro ai were decent at 6z.

 

Euro needs to hold serve because seeing hires models outside of Reggie kind of meh makes me nervous. 

[weathafella]

Skynet hopefully is right.  Solid advisory event for most of sne.

[ORH_wxman]

Skynet prob not seeing John McClane’s caution flags and broadbrushing QPF too far north. 

[CoastalWx]

I guess an inch would look festive.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

I guess an inch would look festive.

[weathafella]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Skynet prob not seeing John McClane’s caution flags and broadbrushing QPF too far north. 

Honestly if that actually turns out to be the case Skynet should do better in subsequent similar setups.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Doubting we will be getting an inch here. Snow in the air though probably 

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, weathafella said:

Honestly if that actually turns out to be the case Skynet should do better in subsequent similar setups.

I think the one hope is the vort comes in a little stronger. Should get a better sample of it on the 00z runs. I don’t think it would be enough to help further north but it could be enough to get the pike region more firmly into a 2-4” type zone instead of C-1”. 
 

It would also help get the southern peeps in on a borderline warning event. Again, unlikely but we’ve seen some last second trends before and the stronger vort is probably the most likely way you’d get the small bump. 

[Damage In Tolland]

I firmly believe Hammer has the right idea with a few inches up to I-90

[CT Rain]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I firmly believe Hammer has the right idea with a few inches up to I-90

Glad you're back. 

I'll probably keep the 1-2" forecast we have but wouldn't be surprised if this trends a bit better.

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, CT Rain said:

Glad you're back. 

I'll probably keep the 1-2" forecast we have but wouldn't be surprised if this trends a bit better.

I love when you talk dirty like this . Please get a bit dirtier 

[wxsniss]

18 minutes ago, weathafella said:

Honestly if that actually turns out to be the case Skynet should do better in subsequent similar setups.

Do you know how often the AIFS is re-trained? Would be amazing if in fact it gets better over the course of each event and each idiosyncratic setup.

I came across this indicating an updated training schedule, but does not detail: https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.18994

(before I get misconstrued... I would hate losing the joy and suspense of forecasting to a perfect AI)

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think the one hope is the vort comes in a little stronger. Should get a better sample of it on the 00z runs. I don’t think it would be enough to help further north but it could be enough to get the pike region more firmly into a 2-4” type zone instead of C-1”. 
 

It would also help get the southern peeps in on a borderline warning event. Again, unlikely but we’ve seen some last second trends before and the stronger vort is probably the most likely way you’d get the small bump. 

One subtle trend over the last day or so is the whole thing kind of looks a little healthier. It hasn’t translated to a north bump, but maybe if that continues it could eventually creep north.

I guess we know what to look for at 00z

[weathafella]

5 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Do you know how often the AIFS is re-trained? Would be amazing if in fact it gets better over the course of each event and each idiosyncratic setup.

I came across this indicating an updated training schedule, but does not detail: https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.18994

(before I get misconstrued... I would hate losing the joy and suspense of forecasting to a perfect AI)

My understanding is the deep learn aspect more or less upgrades the AI models continuously.  Maybe if someone knows differently my understanding can be improved.  I think in a fairly short time the human involvement will need to evolve to understand tinier nuances to tweak forecasting.

[wxsniss]

Box update

As noted above, upside potential at this point IF the vort comes in stronger, could add 1-2" south and east zones, with maybe spots 4-5" total in outer Cape... 

[WinterWolf]

11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

One subtle trend over the last day or so is the whole thing kind of looks a little healthier. It hasn’t translated to a north bump, but maybe if that continues it could eventually creep north.

I guess we know what to look for at 00z

Now that’s what we like to hear brotha. .    Good post. 

[ORH_wxman]

I think outside of the NAM (which is prob safe to ignore for now…maybe by 00z it starts be more useful), the 12z suite was enough to at least give a 1-3” floor for the south coast/Cape. Hopefully we can inch this a little further north. 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

17 minutes ago, wxsniss said:

Box update

As noted above, upside potential at this point IF the vort comes in stronger, could add 1-2" south and east zones, with maybe spots 4-5" total in outer Cape... 

This is the exact type of event that we’d get to go from what it is now into a low end warning in the mid 2010s. Haven’t had any such luck recently. There is a path to a solid advisory, no matter how small it is