December 9th and 10th Clipper

[Stebo]

Figured we should actually have a devoted thread for this, should be a solid hit for most of Wisconsin and Michigan, in the 4-7" range. Decent amount of wind behind the system as well.

[A-L-E-K]

this is your moment

[mnchaserguy]

Cams and medium range models caved to the southern track the globals have been showing for a while. Should be a solid storm for most of MSP and central Minnesota.


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[A-L-E-K]

melting p good here, wonder what will be left of the pack by tomorrow morning

[cyclone77]

Expecting some wind driven sprinkles here, followed by a few passing snow showers late tonight.  Biggest story here will be 40+mph winds later tonight/tomorrow.

[Stevo6899]

What a cutoff on the euro for the metro area. It seems most often than not, it cuts right through detroit.

[beavis1729]

37 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

melting p good here, wonder what will be left of the pack by tomorrow morning

If we lose more than 2-3 inches, it will be very frustrating after such a good start to the season.  There's so little margin of error here for maintaining appreciable snow cover...even 12-18 hours of milder temps can do a lot of damage. 

The new wrinkle this season has been melting from below due to warm soil temps.  Heaven forbid you try to build a snowpack early in the season...

[Malacka11]

Wait till we lay another 10" the next five days and then it torches till Christmas 

[beavis1729]

1 minute ago, Malacka11 said:

Wait till we lay another 10" the next five days and then it torches till Christmas 

Yep, trying to ignore that for now and enjoy the next 5-7 days. Hopefully WI/MI can cash in on the event later today and tomorrow.

[Malacka11]

Guys wait we can't sulk up the northern sub gangs thread. 

This is your moment enjoy it guys 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Flakes flying in the SW metro. Maybe we stay all snow, latest hi res guidance really upping the snow total for MSP.

[mnchaserguy]

Flakes flying in the SW metro. Maybe we stay all snow, latest hi res guidance really upping the snow total for MSP.

If that dry slot on the Hrrr doesn’t end up happening then this could really get interesting. Mpx said a day or two ago that they thought the Hrrr was too aggressive in how deep it brought the low. A slightly less intense storm may actually help our snow totals with this system with less chance of a significant dry slot developing.


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[OrdIowPitMsp]

Been awhile since we’ve had a true Nowcast event like this. 

[mnchaserguy]

Been awhile since we’ve had a true Nowcast event like this. 

Especially when it’s trended in the right direction for us.


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[Stevo6899]

1 hour ago, Malacka11 said:

Guys wait we can't sulk up the northern sub gangs thread. 

This is your moment enjoy it guys 

Judge free zone. We all know what its like to miss out. Understandable to complain.

[A-L-E-K]

if we're lucky we squeeze a DAB+ out of the morning squalls 

[sbnwx85]

HRRR might be overdoing the lake-effect, but it's putting down 2-3" on Wednesday/Wednesday night out this way. Would obviously take it.

[frostfern]

Window for a south shift big enough to bring me back into bigger accumulation is closing.  Hedging on some glacier building slush, provided it doesn’t get into the upper 30s and start melting the pack like crazy.  Euro still keeps me down reasonable close to freezing, just not ideal for accumulation.

[frostfern]

2 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

If we lose more than 2-3 inches, it will be very frustrating after such a good start to the season.  There's so little margin of error here for maintaining appreciable snow cover...even 12-18 hours of milder temps can do a lot of damage. 

The new wrinkle this season has been melting from below due to warm soil temps.  Heaven forbid you try to build a snowpack early in the season...

It’s disheartening that long lasting pack-building patterns are getting more rare due to AGW.  I don’t know if a 2013-2014 can happen again.  It was already a fluke and we have warmed since then.  Have to move north of 47 to hope for a deep snowpack.

[Baum]

10 minutes ago, frostfern said:

It’s disheartening that long lasting pack-building patterns are getting more rare due to AGW.  I don’t know if a 2013-2014 can happen again.  It was already a fluke and we have warmed since then.  Have to move north of 47 to hope for a deep snowpack.

Probably the best start to winter in my 63 years. Probably not a close call either. And that includes the late ‘70’s

[sbnwx85]

5 minutes ago, Baum said:

Probably the best start to winter in my 63 years. Probably not a close call either. And that includes the late ‘70’s

What limited research I've done on those winters shows they started with northwest flows and clippers laying down a good snowpack before bigger storms came in from the southwest. Would be epic to cash in on the same this season.

[Harry Perry]

To be or not to be a rainer… short range says 3-6” of concrete is coming. NWS says get out your rain boots lol. I think this is going to end up being yet another surprise around here. 

[Baum]

24 minutes ago, sbnwx85 said:

What limited research I've done on those winters shows they started with northwest flows and clippers laying down a good snowpack before bigger storms came in from the southwest. Would be epic to cash in on the same this season.

Probably about right. But the cold was basically wall to wall until mid February. High school in the late ‘70’s so it’s a bit hazy.

[KeenerWx]

1 hour ago, sbnwx85 said:

HRRR might be overdoing the lake-effect, but it's putting down 2-3" on Wednesday/Wednesday night out this way. Would obviously take it.

Some nice looking streamers. Will be localized but I could see it. 

[OrdIowPitMsp]

Kinda surprised the NWS hasn’t upgraded Hennepin County to a WSW. Roads are a mess and snow covered. Still 27 at the airport, I see some heavier returns moving in from the SW maybe that is the mixing line. 

[michsnowfreak]

This morning was like a summer squall line on radar, only it was December snow. Picked up 1.2" here and 1.0" at DTW. Pretty consistent 1-1.5" in 1.5 hours with the passage of this morning's mini clipper. 

Tonight is really nowcast. Dont know what to expect. 

Season to date snowfall is 10.5" here and 10.3" DTW. Today waa the 4th snowfall of December falling in the 1-1.5" range. Nickel and diming a winter wonderland. The snow blanket is very layered and more dense than it looks.

[SnowGoose69]

10 minutes ago, OrdIowPitMsp said:

Kinda surprised the NWS hasn’t upgraded Hennepin County to a WSW. Roads are a mess and snow covered. Still 27 at the airport, I see some heavier returns moving in from the SW maybe that is the mixing line. 

 

I do know the NWS office reported they've begun to mix...I think the line may stall or even settle back SW soon.  Not sure it'll make it to the immediate metro except the S side near the airport for awhile. 

[mnchaserguy]

Snowing hard here in Blaine and the heavier bands keep pushing at me. Might be in a sweet spot here for a while.


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