Blizzard of 93 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Long duration monster on the 0z GFS. Starting Sunday am lasting until Monday am this run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 12 minutes ago, AccuChris said: 0z GFS refuses to quit . Nice to see the westward ticks continuing. Were going to run out of them sometime soon, but hey, 1 or 2 more would make many happier than we already are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Long duration monster on the 0z GFS. Starting Sunday am lasting until Monday am this run. 0z GFS snow CTP close up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mshaffer526 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 13 minutes ago, Storm Clouds said: 00z GFS snow map is like 8 inches from the northwest tip of Lancaster county all the way to 24 inches in the far southeast tip. LMAO this is nerve racking. I'm in Gap, this is escalating quickly lol. I don't think this is done shifting, but going to be a historic blizzard regardless. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago I am confident that heavier snow will make it further west than depicted IF this GFS track is correct. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago after looking at 0z guidance so far, I'm setting my bar at 12" in northern Lanco. I also realize that I might be riding the pain/pleasure line, but am loving it all the same. With outliers continuing to bow twds the new King GFS, I wouldnt be totally surprised to see 1 or to ticks W, especially if the Euro course corrects and keep the tuck theme going strong at 0z. trough axis is what I'm watchin now, as we know the storm is going to be a doozy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: after looking at 0z guidance so far, I'm setting my bar at 12" in northern Lanco. I also realize that I might be riding the pain/pleasure line, but am loving it all the same. With outliers continuing to bow twds the new King GFS, I wouldnt be totally surprised to see 1 or to ticks W, especially if the Euro course corrects and keep the tuck theme going strong at 0z. trough axis is what I'm watchin now, as we know the storm is going to be a doozy. You seem to be k a really, really good spot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 15 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Yea 27 is really downplaying this coming event. they do this all the time and then they wanna have that smug intro the most accurate forecast every weather segment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Canadian is still drunk but also joins the shift-west club. Keep that westward movement coming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago It wouldn't be a proper storm if I didn't bring up the RAP haha. Behold! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 18 minutes ago, canderson said: You seem to be k a really, really good spot I think we all have a good shot at warning criteria. last storm I got 8 while those not too far from me got 15", so I guess turnaround is fair play eh? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 17 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Canadian is still drunk but also joins the shift-west club. Keep that westward movement coming. yep. Icon did as well. staring to narrow the cones, but like mag suggesed earlier, if we keep that tucked look right off the chessy bay i'd think scent to poconos should do well (enough). If it escapes east, some folks gonna feel the sting. trough axis still eeking a bit more neg tilt which should help throw meaningful qpf further west. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 21 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said: Canadian is still drunk but also joins the shift-west club. Keep that westward movement coming. all about the trends....even if drunk. It wobbled west, but it still was west. speaking of wobbling....I'm wobblin off to bed. Hoping for some fun in the morning before the chainsaws come out to start my woodcutting season. Gnight kids. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GrandmasterB Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 20 minutes ago, pasnownut said: after looking at 0z guidance so far, I'm setting my bar at 12" in northern Lanco. I also realize that I might be riding the pain/pleasure line, but am loving it all the same. With outliers continuing to bow twds the new King GFS, I wouldnt be totally surprised to see 1 or to ticks W, especially if the Euro course corrects and keep the tuck theme going strong at 0z. trough axis is what I'm watchin now, as we know the storm is going to be a doozy. I agree and I totally understand most folks hand wringing over (potentially) missing out on the 24"+ bullseye, but considering only the GFS had us getting a little coastal precip 48 hours ago to where we are now?? That's a big W already for this storm whatever the outcome. It's been really fun watching all the west ticks to the GFS and as nut and blizz pointed out, we may not be down with the west ticks yet. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted 7 hours ago Author Share Posted 7 hours ago 40 minutes ago, pasnownut said: after looking at 0z guidance so far, I'm setting my bar at 12" in northern Lanco. I also realize that I might be riding the pain/pleasure line, but am loving it all the same. With outliers continuing to bow twds the new King GFS, I wouldnt be totally surprised to see 1 or to ticks W, especially if the Euro course corrects and keep the tuck theme going strong at 0z. trough axis is what I'm watchin now, as we know the storm is going to be a doozy. The GFS is still the furthest NW of any guidance, tucking the low back nearly ashore in Ocean City, MD before the fade to the benchmark…which is even more than the NAM. Unless the new 0z Euro pulls a fast one here in a bit we’re still looking at the same US vs Non-US modelling battle for another run. Things are coming much more in line across the board in favor of the bombing coastal, but Euro/Canadian has been taking this more direct from the Outer Banks to the benchmark with less of a tuck back toward the Delmarva. And that’s the key to both the more excessive totals and also getting any kind of double digit stuff back into any of the LSV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago 0z GEFS was pretty much a hold vs.18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Not the way I wanted to go to bed. Euro doesn't even get New Jersey to double digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted 7 hours ago Share Posted 7 hours ago Looks like 1-4" in the LSV with more from the inverted trough west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Not the way I wanted to go to bed. Euro doesn't even get New Jersey to double digits. Definitely a step back on the 0z Euro & AI Euro as well. At least the AI Euro still gets low end Warning snow to the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueDXer75 Posted 6 hours ago Share Posted 6 hours ago 1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Definitely a step back on the 0z Euro & AI Euro as well. At least the AI Euro still gets low end Warning snow to the LSV. GFS has been rock steady with this storm. No flip flopping like the other models. I give a little more credence to that…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted 5 hours ago Share Posted 5 hours ago These ranges and probabilities are hilarious and great. I'm definitely not invested in this one. I'm solely rooting for inverted trough action. Those can be super sneaky good. Wasn't it in 2016 that one hit around Pittsburgh giving them double the forecast amount from hours prior?Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago FIRST CALL SNOW MAP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Sunday Snow before 10am, then snow, possibly mixed with rain between 10am and 4pm, then snow after 4pm. High near 36. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Sunday Night Snow. Low around 29. Light and variable wind becoming north 5 to 9 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Thats my NWS forecast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Mu is following the Euro. He either going to look smart or going to look pretty stupid. Hope things stay steady today. Volleyball all day Lewisburg watching my Granddaughter. 37 degrees this morning. Ice is starting to move on the river out of Lock Haven. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 7 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Sunday Snow before 10am, then snow, possibly mixed with rain between 10am and 4pm, then snow after 4pm. High near 36. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible. Sunday Night Snow. Low around 29. Light and variable wind becoming north 5 to 9 mph in the evening. Winds could gust as high as 21 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Thats my NWS forecast. Not bragging, but showing. Here's mine... Sunday Snow, mainly after 7am. High near 33. Calm wind becoming east around 6 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 2 to 4 inches possible. Sunday Night Snow. The snow could be heavy at times. Low around 26. Northeast wind 5 to 8 mph becoming north after midnight. Winds could gust as high as 24 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 3 to 7 inches possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Sticking with my 2-5” for MDT call from Tuesday, would be awesome if we get to 6-8”. If paved surfaces so not really get covered it lessens storms in my opinion and I tend not to care about 2” vs 8”. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yardstickgozinya Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Foxyynew just gave me a solid, 1 to 3 . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago CTP reissued the Watch early this morning and is going with 5 to 10 inches of snow at this point with winds up to 35 mph. (yes @canderson this includes downtown Harrisburg…lol) Winter Storm Watch URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 439 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 PAZ057>059-064>066-220000- /O.CON.KCTP.WS.A.0004.260222T1000Z-260223T1800Z/ Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Adams-York-Lancaster- Including the cities of Hershey, Harrisburg, Gettysburg, Pottsville, Lancaster, York, and Lebanon 439 AM EST Sat Feb 21 2026 ...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Heavy snow possible. Total snow accumulations between 5 and 10 inches possible. Winds could gust as high as 35 mph Sunday night and Monday. * WHERE...A portion of central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From late tonight through Monday afternoon. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult. The hazardous conditions could impact the Monday morning commute. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...There is still some uncertainty regarding the track of this storm. Any westward shifts in the track may result in higher snowfall amounts. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MickeyTim6533 Posted 59 minutes ago Share Posted 59 minutes ago 2 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: what are they basing this off? 6z gfs shows eastern berks getting almost two feet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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