Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Blizzard of 93]

Long duration monster on the 0z GFS.

Starting Sunday am lasting until Monday am this run.

[pasnownut]

12 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

0z GFS refuses to quit


.

Nice to see the westward ticks continuing.  Were going to run out of them sometime soon, but hey, 1 or 2 more would make many happier than we already are.  

 

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Long duration monster on the 0z GFS.

Starting Sunday am lasting until Monday am this run.

0z GFS snow CTP close up.

[Mshaffer526]

13 minutes ago, Storm Clouds said:

00z GFS snow map is like 8 inches from the northwest tip of Lancaster county all the way to 24 inches in the far southeast tip. LMAO this is nerve racking.

I'm in Gap, this is escalating quickly lol. I don't think this is done shifting, but going to be a historic blizzard regardless. 

[Blizzard of 93]

I am confident that heavier snow will make it further west than depicted IF this GFS track is correct.

[pasnownut]

after looking at 0z guidance so far, I'm setting my bar at 12" in northern Lanco. 

I also realize that I might be riding the pain/pleasure line, but am loving it all the same. 

With outliers continuing to bow twds the new King GFS, I wouldnt be totally surprised to see 1 or to ticks W, especially if the Euro course corrects and keep the tuck theme going strong at 0z.  trough axis is what I'm watchin now, as we know the storm is going to be a doozy.  

 

[canderson]

2 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

after looking at 0z guidance so far, I'm setting my bar at 12" in northern Lanco. 

I also realize that I might be riding the pain/pleasure line, but am loving it all the same. 

With outliers continuing to bow twds the new King GFS, I wouldnt be totally surprised to see 1 or to ticks W, especially if the Euro course corrects and keep the tuck theme going strong at 0z.  trough axis is what I'm watchin now, as we know the storm is going to be a doozy.  

 

You seem to be k a really, really good spot 

[Ruin]

15 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Yea 27 is really downplaying this coming event.

they do this all the time and then they wanna have that smug intro the most accurate forecast every weather segment 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Canadian is still drunk but also joins the shift-west club.  Keep that westward movement coming.  

[Mount Joy Snowman]

It wouldn't be a proper storm if I didn't bring up the RAP haha.  Behold!

[pasnownut]

18 minutes ago, canderson said:

You seem to be k a really, really good spot 

I think we all have a good shot at warning criteria.  last storm I got 8 while those not too far from me got 15", so I guess turnaround is fair play eh?

 

[pasnownut]

17 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Canadian is still drunk but also joins the shift-west club.  Keep that westward movement coming.  

yep.  Icon did as well.  staring to narrow the cones, but like mag suggesed earlier, if we keep that tucked look right off the chessy bay i'd think scent to poconos should do well (enough).  If it escapes east, some folks gonna feel the sting.  

trough axis still eeking a bit more neg tilt which should help throw meaningful qpf further west.

[pasnownut]

21 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Canadian is still drunk but also joins the shift-west club.  Keep that westward movement coming.  

all about the trends....even if drunk.  It wobbled west, but it still was west.  

speaking of wobbling....I'm wobblin off to bed. 

Hoping for some fun in the morning before the chainsaws come out to start my woodcutting season.  

Gnight kids.

[GrandmasterB]

20 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

after looking at 0z guidance so far, I'm setting my bar at 12" in northern Lanco. 

I also realize that I might be riding the pain/pleasure line, but am loving it all the same. 

With outliers continuing to bow twds the new King GFS, I wouldnt be totally surprised to see 1 or to ticks W, especially if the Euro course corrects and keep the tuck theme going strong at 0z.  trough axis is what I'm watchin now, as we know the storm is going to be a doozy.  

 

I agree and I totally understand most folks hand wringing over (potentially) missing out on the 24"+ bullseye, but considering only the GFS had us getting a little coastal precip 48 hours ago to where we are now??  That's a big W already for this storm whatever the outcome.

It's been really fun watching all the west ticks to the GFS and as nut and blizz pointed out, we may not be down with the west ticks yet.

[MAG5035]

40 minutes ago, pasnownut said:

after looking at 0z guidance so far, I'm setting my bar at 12" in northern Lanco. 

I also realize that I might be riding the pain/pleasure line, but am loving it all the same. 

With outliers continuing to bow twds the new King GFS, I wouldnt be totally surprised to see 1 or to ticks W, especially if the Euro course corrects and keep the tuck theme going strong at 0z.  trough axis is what I'm watchin now, as we know the storm is going to be a doozy.  

 

The GFS is still the furthest NW of any guidance, tucking the low back nearly ashore in Ocean City, MD before the fade to the benchmark…which is even more than the NAM. Unless the new 0z Euro pulls a fast one here in a bit we’re still looking at the same US vs Non-US modelling battle for another run. Things are coming much more in line across the board in favor of the bombing coastal, but Euro/Canadian has been taking this more direct from the Outer Banks to the benchmark with less of a tuck back toward the Delmarva. And that’s the key to both the more excessive totals and also getting any kind of double digit stuff back into any of the LSV. 

[Blizzard of 93]

0z GEFS was pretty much a hold vs.18z.

[Itstrainingtime]

Not the way I wanted to go to bed. Euro doesn't even get New Jersey to double digits. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Looks like 1-4" in the LSV with more from the inverted trough west.

[Blizzard of 93]

9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Not the way I wanted to go to bed. Euro doesn't even get New Jersey to double digits. 

Definitely a step back on the 0z Euro & AI Euro as well.

At least the AI Euro still gets low end Warning snow to the LSV.

[BlueDXer75]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Definitely a step back on the 0z Euro & AI Euro as well.

At least the AI Euro still gets low end Warning snow to the LSV.

GFS has been rock steady with this storm.  No flip flopping like the other models.   I give a little more credence to that….

[Jns2183]

These ranges and probabilities are hilarious and great. I'm definitely not invested in this one. I'm solely rooting for inverted trough action. Those can be super sneaky good. Wasn't it in 2016 that one hit around Pittsburgh giving them double the forecast amount from hours prior?

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