Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[canderson]

Just now, CarlislePaWx said:

At my home in northern NJ (Morris County) way back in 1993, when the super storm passed within 15 miles of me, I recorded a pressure of 964 mb.  That's crazy.  The 964 mb was the lowest barometric pressure I have ever recorded anywhere in my life.

That’s wild. What were the winds like? That has to be 70+ stuff I’d assume given the gradient 

[Voyager]

14 minutes ago, canderson said:

If someone is, they should be kicked on the shins. (Unless they hate winter like @Voyager, they get an excuse) 

I'm gonna blow your mind, but I am upset. I hate when the I-95 crowd and Philly to NYC gets 2+ feet while we get half of that. I want those 20-30 inch contours to come west into Central PA. Run that low due north right up the NJ coast into Long Island instead of what looks to be a northeast track after the "tuck".

[Itstrainingtime]

4 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

The extreme cutoff many are worried about exemplified to the max on the FV3, with 20" in eastern Lancaster County and 5" in Etown.

 

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

My handbook says that it’s a bad unreliable model, so we toss, lol!

Our friend MillvilleWx said the cutoff will be incredibly sharp and painful for weenies somewhere NW of the I95 corridor.

[CarlislePaWx]

2 minutes ago, canderson said:

That’s wild. What were the winds like? That has to be 70+ stuff I’d assume given the gradient 

Those winds reached the NJ coast in spots.  For my area, probably 25-30mph would be my estimate.

[canderson]

Just now, Itstrainingtime said:

 

Our friend MillvilleWx said the cutoff will be incredibly sharp and painful for weenies somewhere NW of the I95 corridor.

Very well could be a 6” diff in snow between you and I. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Here comes the ICON getting down and dirty...

[Mount Joy Snowman]

ICON gets tucked and joins the party.  Big changes and big totals.

[Superstorm]

iCON way west with precip


.

[Porsche]

[Storm Clouds]

I’m scared this is going to be a repeat of Boxing Day 2010…

[Superstorm]

I’m scared this is going to be a repeat of Boxing Day 2010…

lol, can’t get away from that day


.

[Voyager]

12 minutes ago, Storm Clouds said:

I’m scared this is going to be a repeat of Boxing Day 2010…

I am too in a way. I remember that one well. It was quite painful.

[Blizzard of 93]

Repeat after me… this is nothing like Boxing Day whatsoever!

Back then, NYC was out of it until 24 hours before the storm…

[Storm Clouds]

Just now, Voyager said:

I am too in a way. I remember that one well. It was quite painful. 

Warning was for 6-12 inches. All day it was just a fine pixie dust falling all day and barely a dusting when all was said and done. It was brutal. One of the worst busts in a forecast I can remember. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Anyway, good to see even the somewhat worthless ICON bump precip totals at 0z over 18z.

[Voyager]

1 minute ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Repeat after me… this is nothing like Boxing Day whatsoever!

Back then, NYC was out of it until 24 hours before the storm…

I don't think this will be as bad as 2010, but I just hate I-95 getting the fillet mignon while we get sirloin.

[Blizzard of 93]

3 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I don't think this will be as bad as 2010, but I just hate I-95 getting the fillet mignon while we get sirloin.

Who says the trends are over…?

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Who says the trends are over…?

This is a valid point.

Changes will continue over the next 30 hours. Which way will they go?

[canderson]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Who says the trends are over…?

This is a good point. If I lived in NJ I’d a) loathe my life and b) worry about this slipping W and leaving me with sleet/rain 

[Storm Clouds]

5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Who says the trends are over…?

Could easily trend back east too…still time. Who knows. Time will tell. 

[Ruin]

14 minutes ago, Voyager said:

I am too in a way. I remember that one well. It was quite painful.

was that the storm where we had like 7 hours of radar showing precip yet nothing fell 

[Ruin]

god pls let this be so wrong and let us get like 8 inches this guy is always so smug about low balling snow 

 

 

[MAG5035]

1 hour ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

There is also usually a secondary jackpot outside of the main area depending on where the best bands set up. A low that’s deepening to that level will push some heavy bands well inland.

My thinking on this right now is all of C-PA is looking good for at least a higher end advisory event to low end warning totals in the LSV where the watches represent currently. Basically a 3-6” event for everyone is my general baseline right now. NW of I-81 the key to easily meeting or exceeding that range relates to the inverted trough and the meso banding associated with that… as well as how well the initial precip develops as the features start to phase in. For I-81 and points southeast exceeding or perhaps significantly exceeding warning criteria becomes more related to how close the bombing low tucks in towards the Delmarva coastline. 

If there are going to be excessive totals with this (18-24+ type stuff), I think the low would have to take a track from interior NC THRU the Delmarva and up right along the NJ coastline for that theoretical swath to make it deep into the Sus Valley. Which probably isn’t going to happen. We have a good 500mb western ridge alignment but the axis is a bit east of Boise (ideal C-PA ridge axis). So I do think this low probably will stay a little bit offshore. I think York/Lancaster have the best chance of seeing anything double digit in our subforum, or Chester obviously since we do have a regular in here from there. 

Modeled trajectory now generally takes this rapidly developing low up from roughly Hatteras, up just offshore of the Delmarva, tucking to varying degrees depending on model, and then fading east to the benchmark (40/70). It’s easily meeting the criteria for bombogenesis on most guidance now, with the 3k NAM deepening 41 mb in 16 hours. The most intense banding would stay pretty tight with that rapid intensification scenario and track. The inverted trough is what keeps the light-moderate going back far into PA, which is aided some of course by this coastal being closer in than what most non-GFS guidance had until well..today. If we didn’t have that feature but still the rapidly bombing low we would have a truly sharp cutoff between a lot and nothing, which would probably reside right in the middle of the Sus Valley. 

 

[Yardstickgozinya]

 Aye aye, Matey" She aint a Marlin, she aint a tuna. This bohemoth monster of of the sea thinks she'll make way of the fishes. This beast never seen the likes of such snow famished  scurvy dogs . "Arr" drags pined down deeper than Captain Nemo and the Nautilus themselves.. Don't worry landlubbers , your favorite skally wag, is bringing her ashore

[Storm Clouds]

00z GFS snow map is like 8 inches from the northwest tip of Lancaster county all the way to 24 inches in the far southeast tip. LMAO this is nerve racking.

[paweather5]

22 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Who says the trends are over…?

[AccuChris]

0z GFS refuses to quit


.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

GFS is again a monster and perhaps even more so towards Lanc but my goodness that cutoff....

[mahantango#1]

15 minutes ago, Ruin said:

god pls let this be so wrong and let us get like 8 inches this guy is always so smug about low balling snow 

 

 

Yea 27 is really downplaying this coming event.

[canderson]

I will burn down Lancaster if they get 14” more snow than me.