Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Festus]

Looking at the 0Z GFS, there's actually a shot we don't get above freezing for the entire run.  The last time we were above freezing here was Friday the 23rd.  So if true, that would realize a stretch of 24 consecutive days below freezing obliterating the previous record of 15 straight days.  We better have a nice Spring after this!

"The longest consecutive stretches of temperatures remaining below freezing in the Millersville/Lancaster County area are 15-day periods, occurring from Feb. 5–19, 1979, and Jan. 20–Feb. 3, 1961."

[Blizzard of 93]

CTP is starting to ramp up the language for this weekend’s potential.

KEY MESSAGE 2: Potential East Coastal Storm Threat this weekend

There is a growing guidance signal for the development of a
potentially impactful weekend coastal storm along the Eastern
Seaboard. We will continue to monitor given risk of snow and
wind impacts.

[Blizzard of 93]

6z Euro & 6z Euro AI for this coming weekend. 
Might be time to buckle up again…!

[anotherman]

Wondering if any of you have a good storm total for Mount Joy. I’m not there to measure.

[canderson]

Doesn’t appear I received any additional accumulation of snow overnight. 

We have travel plans next Saturday. Of course they’ll be ruined. 

[AllWeather]

Ridge axis over Idaho
Hudson Bay high
50/50 low in ideal position
Decent high latitude blocking
Sub-trop disturbance

Game on.


.

[anotherman]

4 minutes ago, canderson said:

Doesn’t appear I received any additional accumulation of snow overnight. 

We have travel plans next Saturday. Of course they’ll be ruined. 

You have travel plans?  No way.

[canderson]

12 minutes ago, anotherman said:

You have travel plans?  No way.

Just a day trip to go see Bug in NYC. But I’d like to see it still! 

[Itstrainingtime]

9 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said:

I hope everyone is getting ready for the coldest temperature in Harrisburg since Jan 21, 1994 come this Saturday...

 CTP has my low that morning 23 degrees higher than that model output.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Low of 14 and .1" of additional snizzle brings the storm total to 8.8".  It's also snowing here very lightly at the moment so that's neat ha.  Melting down the gauge and will report back later.  Really looking forward to clearing the driveway sigh.  Here's to keeping a keen eye on next weekend.

[Itstrainingtime]

Pouring rain here now as the cold front blasts through Florida.

[canderson]

MDT recorded 14” snow/sleet yesterday. 

[paweather]

47 minutes ago, AllWeather said:

Ridge axis over Idaho
Hudson Bay high
50/50 low in ideal position
Decent high latitude blocking
Sub-trop disturbance

Game on.


.

Good to see you Allweather

[GrandmasterB]

9 minutes ago, canderson said:

MDT recorded 14” snow/sleet yesterday. 

Is this the official number then?

[canderson]

1 minute ago, GrandmasterB said:

Is this the official number then?

Yeo! The snow depth is … very wrong though   

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
218 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026

...................................

...THE HARRISBURG PA CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 25 2026...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1888 TO 2026


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR
                                                  NORMAL
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
 YESTERDAY
  MAXIMUM         16   1159 PM  71    1967  38    -22       34
  MINIMUM         10   1150 AM   0    1936  22    -12        2
  AVERAGE         13                        30    -17       18

PRECIPITATION (IN)
  YESTERDAY        1.49R         1.48 1978   0.10   1.39     0.00
                                      2020
  MONTH TO DATE    2.22                      2.44  -0.22     0.65
  SINCE DEC 1      4.40                      5.87  -1.47     4.31
  SINCE JAN 1      2.22                      2.44  -0.22     0.65

SNOWFALL (IN)
  YESTERDAY       14.0 R         5.4  1988   0.3   13.7      0.0
  MONTH TO DATE   16.7                       6.9    9.8     10.4
  SINCE DEC 1     21.7                      11.3   10.4     12.2
  SINCE JUL 1     21.7                      12.3    9.4     12.2
  SNOW DEPTH       3

[str8liner]

31 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

 CTP has my low that morning 23 degrees higher than that model output.

 

It also has Hagerstown  at 20 below and Somerset only 15 below.

Don't think that is happening. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

16 minutes ago, canderson said:

MDT recorded 14” snow/sleet yesterday. 

Whoa that's a big number!  Here are some local totals from CTP.....

...Adams County...
1 W Cashtown                 7.4 in    0605 PM 01/25   CO-OP Observer
Littlestown                  7.0 in    0100 PM 01/25
1 NNW Mcsherrystown          6.2 in    1101 AM 01/25   Trained Spotter
Abbottstown                  5.8 in    0400 PM 01/25   Trained Spotter
3 ESE Carroll Valley         4.6 in    0823 AM 01/25

...Cumberland County...
1 SSE Hogestown              8.5 in    0530 PM 01/25   Public
Mechanicsburg                8.1 in    0237 PM 01/25   Public
2 ENE Wertzville             8.0 in    1045 AM 01/25   Other Federal
1 ENE Mechanicsburg          7.5 in    0620 PM 01/25   Public
1 W Camp Hill                7.3 in    1200 PM 01/25
3 ESE Bloserville            7.0 in    0844 PM 01/25   Trained Spotter
1 S Carlisle                 7.0 in    0200 PM 01/25   Public
2 SW Bloserville             6.5 in    1200 PM 01/25   Trained Spotter
Shippensburg                 6.5 in    0600 PM 01/25   Amateur Radio
Enola                        6.0 in    0834 AM 01/25   Public
Shippensburg                 6.0 in    0206 PM 01/25   Trained Spotter
Carlisle 7.2 SSW             4.0 in    0830 AM 01/25   COCORAHS

...Dauphin County...
Millersburg                  11.7 in   0600 PM 01/25   Public
1 WSW Middletown             11.0 in   0500 PM 01/25   Official NWS Obs
1 SW Linglestown             9.5 in    0803 PM 01/25
2 NNE Highspire              9.0 in    0530 PM 01/25
Millersburg                  9.0 in    0421 PM 01/25   Emergency Mngr
2 NNW Hershey                8.5 in    0530 PM 01/25   Broadcast Media
4 NE Halifax                 8.1 in    1218 PM 01/25   Trained Spotter
Hershey                      7.5 in    0245 PM 01/25   Broadcast Media
2 NW Hershey                 7.5 in    0950 PM 01/25   Trained Spotter
1 S Rockville                7.5 in    0105 PM 01/25   Broadcast Media
3 SE Middletown              7.0 in    1140 AM 01/25   Trained Spotter
1 SE Progress                7.0 in    1254 PM 01/25
Progress                     4.2 in    1006 AM 01/25   Emergency Mngr

...Lancaster County...
Denver                       13.0 in   0730 PM 01/25   Trained Spotter
3 NNE Denver                 12.5 in   0800 PM 01/25   Public
2 ENE Mountville             12.0 in   0650 PM 01/25   Public
1 E East Petersburg          9.5 in    0307 PM 01/25
4 W Leola                    9.1 in    0454 PM 01/25
2 S East Petersburg          9.0 in    1254 PM 01/25   Trained Spotter
1 NW Manheim                 9.0 in    0235 PM 01/25
Akron                        8.8 in    0320 PM 01/25   Public
1 ENE Marietta               8.8 in    0800 PM 01/25
1 E Lancaster                8.5 in    0941 PM 01/25   Public
3 NE Terre Hill              8.4 in    0830 PM 01/25   Public
3 NNE Terre Hill             8.2 in    1232 PM 01/25
2 NW Leola                   8.1 in    0600 PM 01/25   Public
3 N Denver                   8.0 in    0130 PM 01/25   Broadcast Media
Ephrata                      8.0 in    1225 PM 01/25   Trained Spotter
2 N Millersville             8.0 in    0740 PM 01/25   Trained Spotter
Millersville                 8.0 in    0935 PM 01/25   Cocorahs
2 W Lancaster                7.8 in    1155 AM 01/25   Broadcast Media
3 N Lancaster                7.0 in    1145 AM 01/25
Manheim                      6.0 in    1120 AM 01/25   Public
Rothsville                   5.0 in    0910 AM 01/25   Public

...Lebanon County...
1 WSW Lebanon                12.0 in   0615 PM 01/25   Trained Spotter
1 NW Palmyra                 9.3 in    1230 PM 01/25
Campbelltown                 7.5 in    1100 AM 01/25   Public
Palmyra                      7.2 in    0500 PM 01/25   Public
2 SE Penn National Race      5.8 in    1115 AM 01/25   Emergency Mngr
Palmyra                      5.5 in    0936 AM 01/25
Lebanon                      4.3 in    0830 AM 01/25   Public

...York County...
Red Lion                     12.0 in   0604 PM 01/25
2 NNW Spry                   8.0 in    1035 AM 01/25   Broadcast Media
3 NNE Wellsville             8.0 in    0257 PM 01/25
Wrightsville                 8.0 in    0130 PM 01/25   Public
2 NW Codorus                 7.5 in    0348 PM 01/25   Trained Spotter
York                         7.5 in    0710 PM 01/25   Trained Spotter
3 ESE Felton                 7.3 in    0920 PM 01/25   Trained Spotter
Loganville                   7.0 in    0240 PM 01/25   Trained Spotter
2 S York                     7.0 in    0710 PM 01/25   Public
2 NW Stonybrook              6.8 in    0700 PM 01/25   Emergency Mngr
Glen Rock                    6.5 in    1245 PM 01/25   Public
3 NE Dover                   6.2 in    1115 AM 01/25   Trained Spotter
2 NNW Valley Green           6.0 in    1000 AM 01/25
1 ENE New Freedom            5.0 in    1100 AM 01/25   Trained Spotter
New Salem                    5.0 in    0100 PM 01/25   Trained Spotter

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Can't leave out Blizz and Voyager.....

...Perry County...
1 NNE Liverpool              9.8 in    0720 PM 01/25   Trained Spotter
Liverpool                    9.5 in    0400 PM 01/25   Public
1 NNE Liverpool              9.3 in    0230 PM 01/25   Trained Spotter
Marysville                   8.8 in    0417 PM 01/25   Amateur Radio
Millerstown                  7.8 in    0200 PM 01/25   Trained Spotter
4 ESE New Bloomfield         5.0 in    0820 AM 01/25   Public

...Schuylkill County...
3 N Tuscarora                13.0 in   0630 PM 01/25   Public
1 NE Snyders                 11.9 in   0925 PM 01/25   Public
4 WSW Pine Grove             11.0 in   0424 PM 01/25
Ringtown                     10.5 in   0505 PM 01/25   Trained Spotter
Auburn                       10.0 in   0815 PM 01/25   Trained Spotter
4 WSW Summit Station         10.0 in   0408 PM 01/25
1 E Tower City               9.3 in    0445 PM 01/25   Trained Spotter
Pine Grove                   8.9 in    0840 PM 01/25   Other Federal
4 ENE Rough And Ready        5.8 in    1100 AM 01/25   Trained Spotter

[GrandmasterB]

If 14” is official that would make @pasnownutthe winner with an entry of 13.9”, just edging out @Itstrainingtime(14.2) who wasn’t even in the state. 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

The radar is blossoming and it is now officially lightly snowing. Perhaps another day of putting something in the books. Love it. 

[TheClimateChanger]

31 minutes ago, canderson said:

Yeo! The snow depth is … very wrong though   

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
218 AM EST MON JAN 26 2026

...................................

...THE HARRISBURG PA CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR JANUARY 25 2026...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1991 TO 2020
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1888 TO 2026


WEATHER ITEM   OBSERVED TIME   RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
                VALUE   (LST)  VALUE       VALUE  FROM      YEAR
                                                  NORMAL
...................................................................
TEMPERATURE (F)
 YESTERDAY
  MAXIMUM         16   1159 PM  71    1967  38    -22       34
  MINIMUM         10   1150 AM   0    1936  22    -12        2
  AVERAGE         13                        30    -17       18

PRECIPITATION (IN)
  YESTERDAY        1.49R         1.48 1978   0.10   1.39     0.00
                                      2020
  MONTH TO DATE    2.22                      2.44  -0.22     0.65
  SINCE DEC 1      4.40                      5.87  -1.47     4.31
  SINCE JAN 1      2.22                      2.44  -0.22     0.65

SNOWFALL (IN)
  YESTERDAY       14.0 R         5.4  1988   0.3   13.7      0.0
  MONTH TO DATE   16.7                       6.9    9.8     10.4
  SINCE DEC 1     21.7                      11.3   10.4     12.2
  SINCE JUL 1     21.7                      12.3    9.4     12.2
  SNOW DEPTH       3

Snow depth is recorded at 7 am each day, so it won’t reflect the snow that fell after.

[ChescoWx]

After yesterday's 11th winter event of the season which totaled 12.8" of sleet/snow here in East Nantmeal we are at 230% of normal snowfall at 34.1". This is about 96% of our annual average snowfall. Today will be the "warmest" day of the week with temperatures hopefully making it up into the low to mid 20's. For the rest of the week temperatures will likely remain in the mid to upper teens for highs and lows near or below zero for much of the area. In fact, here in EN the NWS has a forecast low of 5 below zero on Thursday morning - in my 23 years at this location I have never recorded a temperature that cold. After some flurries today we look dry for the rest of the work week. Some models are hinting and our 12th winter event of the season next weekend....but we don't shovel or scrape model snow.

[Blizzard92]

Some flurries here this morning. We must have had some freezing mist/drizzle overnight, as my car was coated in ice. Meanwhile, my flight to the American Meteorological Society conference has been canceled now a second time...