Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[Blizzard92]

3 minutes ago, str8liner said:

Yea but some had it moving through to the south and east of me. Thought I might get lucky.

15 inches a couple days ago, to 6 inches and a sleet slop mess on top.

Par for the course in my area. 

There are some indications in recent radar frames that the mix line may be slowing down or retreating south a bit in parts of Bedford County as some colder air filters in.

[anotherman]

Still getting a decent amount of snow mixing in especially with heavier bursts. You guys near Harrisburg should get a lot of mix and then switch back to all snow with accumulations. If I switch back, it'll be more a novelty than accumulating.

Coastal might help with that.

[canderson]

We have the answer to the question of “Can a weaker low really drive into a stronger arctic high sitting over New York and make inroads?”  

[Itstrainingtime]

2 minutes ago, Storm Clouds said:

From now on in the NAM we trust. It is what it is.

When it comes to changeover events (and nothing else) I always trust it. Always. I'm 60 years old and I lived this song and dance since having my heart ripped out as a kid in the 1970s. It's just climo for us. 1994, I had freezing rain and 8.1 degrees. I have those kind of stats written down and memorized.

[MAG5035]

Heaviest snow of the event so far, working on 7”. Temp 9ºF 

[str8liner]

2 minutes ago, Blizzard92 said:

There are some indications in recent radar frames that the mix line may be slowing down or retreating south a bit in parts of Bedford County as some colder air filters in.

Been watching it on the radar. It looks like its mostly sleeting in the southeastern portion of Bedford Co. Just clipping me.

 

[MAG5035]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

This sleet is different from most sleet fests. One of the mets in the MA forum commented that there are still a lot of needles with the sleet and opined could be crystalline below the 700-750mb warm layer. It definitely looks different. 

Thats certainly possible, That 700-800mb area is the only part of the column that warms to the point of mixing and that’s quite high up. We never lose 850mb on down, and there’s plenty of lift at that level as well. 

[AccuChris]

Sleet has entered the chat here in Lebanon


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[pasnownut]

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

This sleet is different from most sleet fests. One of the mets in the MA forum commented that there are still a lot of needles with the sleet that opined could be crystalline below the 700-750mb warm layer. It definitely looks different. 

Glad you said that. When I went out to measure I thought it to be the largest I’ve seen. 

[Blizzard of 93]

4 minutes ago, Blizzard92 said:

There are some indications in recent radar frames that the mix line may be slowing down or retreating south a bit in parts of Bedford County as some colder air filters in.

What do you those radar trends could mean for the Harrisburg area this afternoon?

[pasnownut]

Back to all snow when it’s heavy. Lighter stuff is when we ping. If this is what the rest of the storm is. Perfectly fine. 

[canderson]

Have some pinging in Harrisburg 

[mitchnick]

13 minutes ago, anotherman said:

Coastal might help with that.

I was hoping it would, but every model except the Ukie wants to March the primary north close to Wheeling, WV before heading due east. Had it just died like most do,  we'd all be snow still. Who wants to go to Wheeling anyway?

[anotherman]

I was hoping it would, but every model except the Ukie wants to March the primary north close to Wheeling, WV before heading due east. Had it just died like most due, we'd all be snow still. Who wants to go to Wheeling anyway?

Billy Joel?

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Sleet up to Harrisburg and Lebanon before noontime, tragic.  So, who had the low estimate for MDT?

[CarlislePaWx]

Well, it was fun while it lasted, however, the fun is now over.  I began mixing with sleet about 20 minutes ago, and within 10 minutes it had gone over to nearly 100% sleet.  I rushed out to bring in my gauge before the liquid equivalent began to rapidly contaminate the qpf.  Unfortunately, I think I was a bit slow to recognize the changeover because the 6.0" storm total so far melted down to 0.70" producing a somewhat improbable ratio of 8.6 : 1.  I'll be anxious to see the reports from others here that do meltdowns to see if anyone else comes in below 10:1.  Once again, I'll report that I'm 100% sleet with a temperature of 11.1 degrees.

I'll say this...it's a good thing I'm not 30 years or even 20 years younger (I'm 66) or I know I would have been incredibly disappointed.  Instead, like most others here I'll focus on the positive aspects and the thrill of the chase. The only redeeming thing is that the storm total reached 6".  I realize there's more of the storm yet to come so perhaps the sleet will accumulate enough to bring my storm total higher.

[Yardstickgozinya]

Sleet snow mix  at 11:50AM

[Itstrainingtime]

@Ruin I was not trying to be rude or unkind to you the past few days. I apologize if I came off that way. We all have and should express our thoughts and opinions, that's why we're here. (Or fishing in the Gulf) I was as adamant as I was simply because of science. If warm air aloft has an outlet, and it was quite clear the past few days that it did...well, it just doesn't matter how cold or how fresh an airmass is...it's going to lose out to that warm air intrusion. Just the way it is. 

Once it became obvious we were Miller B'n we needed the OV low to die farther south than it was modeled to do so.

[Blizzard92]

8 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

What do you those radar trends could mean for the Harrisburg area this afternoon?

I am keeping an eye on that northern extent of the CC in north Franklin County for potential trends this afternoon. Though the heavier reflectivity returns moving through the LSV could keep those north of the turnpike with at least 25% snow mixing in with the sleet.

I am getting about a 75% snow (needles and random aggregates) and 25% sleet here.

[GrandmasterB]

6 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Sleet up to Harrisburg and Lebanon before noontime, tragic.  So, who had the low estimate for MDT?

My prediction was 8.2 but the next highest guess is pretty far above that. 

[WX-PA]

It's not your typical sleet..there are snow pellets mixed in..I can see us still acuumulate..storm is not over

[HBGCPA10]

Sleet mixing in at times in West Hanover Township (by CD High) NORTH of I-81

[Mount Joy Snowman]

Welp, it is rage pouring sleet here right now, under some serious radar returns.  The sleet hitting our magnolia tree is one of the loudest things I've ever heard haha.  My neighbor is out shoveling and we just had a good chuckle, couldn't believe how hard it was coming down.

[canderson]

Heavy sleet 

Infuriating when it’s 17 degrees 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

2 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

My prediction was 8.2 but the next highest guess is pretty far above that. 

Congrats on your likely win!  Well played.  "Never underestimate the warm nose", he whispers to himself. 

[Blizzard of 93]

1 minute ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

Congrats on your likely win!  Well played.  "Never underestimate the warm nose", he whispers to himself. 

It’s not over…

MDT still is reporting Heavy snow with .25 mile visibility at 11:56 am.

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Blizzard of 93 said:

It’s not over…

MDT still is reporting Heavy snow with .25 mile visibility at 11:56 am.

When they mix or change, accumulating sleet will still count.

Long way to go 

[MAG5035]

16 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

What do you those radar trends could mean for the Harrisburg area this afternoon?

Back in western PA the mix line is remaining well south of Pittsburgh, generally near the Mason-Dixon line. That then cuts up NE thru Bedford/Fulton to where it’s pressed up into the Sus Valley.

The next couple hours are going to be where the max WAA occurs to drive the sleet up into the Sus Valley. I would expect a changeover back to snow to try to work back down thru the LSV eventually as that intense WAA passes and the column starts cooling at that level. However, the big thing by that point is going to be the race between that and the main precip shutting off. Models seem to be timing a mid-evening shutoff (10pm ish). There’s a lot of storm to go. 

[Jns2183]

Glad you said that. When I went out to measure I thought it to be the largest I’ve seen. 

The current precipitation regime is a hybrid of partial melting-refreezing aloft and active low-level crystal growth, resulting in a sleet-needle mixture with significantly higher accumulation ratios than standard ice pellets. While the marginal +1.0^\circ\text{C} warm nose provides the energy to collapse snowflakes into dense sleet cores, the saturated sub-freezing head below supports independent crystal growth within the -3^\circ\text{C} to -5^\circ\text{C} needle habit window. These acicular needles act as a structural "filler" between the falling ice pellets, trapping additional air gaps and preventing the efficient packing typically seen with smooth, spherical sleet. This microphysical "scaffolding" pushes the sleet-to-liquid ratio (SLR) from a standard 2:1 or 3:1 up toward a crunchier 4:1 to 6:1 range, leading to a faster-accumulating, lower-density ice mat on the ground.

Made it to 10" before pingers

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[whiteout]

Who’s got a good current look at radar with correlation coefficient?


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