Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[pasnownut]

Just now, Superstorm said:

Even if there is sleet, it would be after a 12" to 18".  That thump is going to be unreal.

some of our more notable events have a transfer just below M/D line, and like JB always said, for the best snows ya gotta smell the rain.  While I dont feel well smell any rain, we may hear it...pinger style.  

I'm still hoping we can keep the progressive look w/ less WAA worries.  Just a nice clean snow event...please n thx.

[Superstorm]

2 minutes ago, AccuChris said:

From Eric Horst:



.

THIS!

[pasnownut]

5 minutes ago, Superstorm said:

Even if there is sleet, it would be after 12" to 18" of snow.  That thump is going to be unreal.

as event approaches, its running into a 1042mb H, and while it does get nudged NE, antecedent cold coupled w/ that should hold ground for most of the duration.  If it ends as sleet...fine, thats just a snowpack densifier.

[Mount Joy Snowman]

19 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

Yea I mean I’m not going to argue his points, they’re valid. I’ve posted a couple times about his point #2 (western ridge alignment) the last couple days, why not air the skepticism he had when some guidance had this buried in the Carolinas as recently as yesterday at 12z?

With that said, there’s only so much this storm is going to punch up into that cold air mass. It’s still fairly progressive in nature. Any PA mixing issues would likely be relegated to mainly sleet and not after a pretty large amount of snowfall. That strong of CAD isn’t going to get dislodged below 850mb by this. MDT is in the low teens for most of this event. 

 

That's my thing, why not show some real gumption and relay this concern when the core of the snow totals were projected along the N. Carolina border, not when it's to the point any novice can see the possibility.  Don't do the 'ol "the reason I haven't said anything about the storm is because I feared this thing happening that is now showing to happen on the most recent model runs."  Uh huh.  Then say that, back when you thought it.  Unless of course you never had those thoughts and are just trying to appear like the smartest guy in the room.  He could have scored some real points but this just feels like covering his bases mixed with a bit of late-game justification. 

[paweather]

12z EURO

[Jns2183]

He seems to love dunking on snow chances. I can understand his reticence on not seeing some sleet nose into the Lower Susquehanna Valley, but he consistently seems to be the first person to rain on the parage of snow lovers.

Here's some maps of this area's most famous cold sleet storm, because if it's going to sleet it's going to do so into some cold surface air

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk

[MAG5035]

I’ve been busy enough watching the weekend that I missed being advised for 1-3” earlier this afternoon for tonight. Snowing sideways and 26ºF currently. 

[GrandmasterB]

Dang, that is SUPER aggressive from Horst! Love to see it. 

[canderson]

Holy moly next eeek will be COLD. 

[sauss06]

8 minutes ago, canderson said:

Holy moly next eeek will be COLD. 

looking like it. 

[Voyager]

45 minutes ago, MAG5035 said:

I’ve been busy enough watching the weekend that I missed being advised for 1-3” earlier this afternoon for tonight. Snowing sideways and 26ºF currently. 

Just looked at radar. Looks like it's going snow soon here. I wasn't expecting that...

[Mount Joy Snowman]

18z NAM at 84.....

[WmsptWx]

WGAL on the record saying 12 or more likely. 

[canderson]

25 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

18z NAM at 84.....

Extrapolation says game on 

[Superstorm]

Icon no bueno


.

[Eskimo Joe]

18z ICON appears to get the sleet/snow line up the PA Turnpike. Keeps totals below 10" along the Mason-Dixon counties.

[paweather]

1 minute ago, Superstorm said:

Icon no bueno


.

What’s wrong with it?

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

18z ICON appears to get the sleet/snow line up the PA Turnpike. Keeps totals below 10" along the Mason-Dixon counties.

We had the same in the 1993 super storm where sleet fell but it didn’t hurt amounts plus a good front end thump before any changeover would occur.

[Ruin]

16 minutes ago, paweather said:

What’s wrong with it?

So my question is, how is it getting this far north?I mean, this keeps up.We're gonna be in mixing in southern pennsylvania.It was said that all this cold air was supposed to suppress the system.And no strong storms like to go north.Yeah but this is getting ridiculous

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, Ruin said:

So my question is, how is it getting this far north?I mean, this keeps up.We're gonna be in mixing in southern pennsylvania.It was said that all this cold air was supposed to suppress the system.And no strong storms like to go north.Yeah but this is getting ridiculous

Relax still 4 days out and again we get a good thump If a changeover for a period of time occurs

[Ruin]

2 minutes ago, paweather said:

Relax still 4 days out and again we get a good thump If a changeover for a period of time occurs

Oh, no, no, no I know that it's 4 days out, I'm just kind of questioning 'n't oh. And those model runs, what ingredient in the model is showing that it's moving north.Now like what's making it move north versus moving.It south, because last I looked the high pressures that were to the north were really strong.And the low pressure wasn't that strong.It was a good sized storm.But nowhere near the point of displacing a strong high

[paweather]

2 minutes ago, Ruin said:

Oh, no, no, no I know that it's 4 days out, I'm just kind of questioning 'n't oh. And those model runs, what ingredient in the model is showing that it's moving north.Now like what's making it move north versus moving.It south, because last I looked the high pressures that were to the north were really strong.And the low pressure wasn't that strong.It was a good sized storm.But nowhere near the point of displacing a strong high

It is turning into a Miller B transferring the energy a little later in WV instead of TN on some models. Typical model waffling as they always do especially since models have been very consistent up to this point with the storm. Yesterday there was suppression concerns now it is “it’s going to far north to transfer to the coast for all snow” concerns. It happens either way this is the storm we will be talking about for quite some time IMO.

[Ruin]

6 minutes ago, paweather said:

It is turning into a Miller B transferring the energy a little later in WV instead of TN on some models. Typical model waffling as they always do especially since models have been very consistent up to this point with the storm. Yesterday there was suppression concerns now it is “it’s going to far north to transfer to the coast for all snow” concerns. It happens either way this is the storm we will be talking about for quite some time IMO.

Ty

[paweather]

18z GFS