Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[mahantango#1]

 

DT-WxRisk

 

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0Z TUES UKMET/ EURO ENSEMBLE SNOWFALL MAPS: these maps are based on 10 to 1 snow ratios. Jan 24-25 will see arctic air in Mid Atlantic/ TN valley so these snow maps could be UNDERDONE #wxtwitter #vawx #mdwx #wvwx #dcwx #pawx #phlwx #rvawx #ncwx #rduwx #njwx #nywx #nycwx #ohwx #kywx #tnwx

 

 

4:49 AM · Jan 20, 2026

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[mahantango#1]

 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

11 at the house when I left and 3 through the rurals. I haven’t had much time to dive into things for this weekend, will do so today, but from what I’ve seen on this board my pants are officially getting tight. Big week ahead. 

[NepaJames8602]

Zero degrees here in my part of the Poconos at 630 am. Wind died down some, and snow pack really allowed temps to plummet. 

This weekend is now looking more interesting. It's a good thing being on the northern edge 4 to 5 days out imo.

[Voyager]

This is from Mount Holly, but relates to our forum as well. As of now, a 40% chance of at least moderate impacts for many in our area.

[mahantango#1]

3 minutes ago, Voyager said:

This is from Mount Holly, but relates to our forum as well. As of now, a 40% chance of at least moderate impacts for many in our area.

We can't shovel potential and probability, only the real deal can be shoveled.  but we'll take this at this point.

[mahantango#1]

4 this morning.

[Blizzard of 93]

Great trends continue at 6z for this weekend. 

6z GEFS bumped north with the good snow by at least 50 miles over 0z.

[anotherman]

Great trends continue at 6z for this weekend. 
6z GEFS bumped north with the good snow by at least 50 miles over 0z.

Some of the good posters on the mid-atlantic board expect it to come more north.

[Blizzard of 93]

6z GFS & Euro AI at 6z also bumped north. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Anxiously following and pulling hard for you guys! Can't believe I might miss something special. Reel it in.

48 here in Cocoa Beach. That's not too bad until you factor in a north wind at 17 gusting to near 30. Coldest I've experienced here since 2006.

[Blizzard of 93]

Low of 7 in Marysville.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

11 at the house when I left and 3 through the rurals. I haven’t had much time to dive into things for this weekend, will do so today, but from what I’ve seen on this board my pants are officially getting tight. Big week ahead. 

Pants tight?

I remember those times...

[canderson]

10 is my low 

[paweather]

Game on!

[mahantango#1]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Anxiously following and pulling hard for you guys! Can't believe I might miss something special. Reel it in.

48 here in Cocoa Beach. That's not too bad until you factor in a north wind at 17 gusting to near 30. Coldest I've experienced here since 2006.

I think You need to cut your vacation short and head home immediately to potentially enjoy the festivities that mother nature could provide.

[mahantango#1]

Last nights northern lights.

 

[anotherman]

Anxiously following and pulling hard for you guys! Can't believe I might miss something special. Reel it in.
48 here in Cocoa Beach. That's not too bad until you factor in a north wind at 17 gusting to near 30. Coldest I've experienced here since 2006.

When I went to Disney world a few years ago between Christmas and NYE I was terrified I would miss a big storm.

[Eskimo Joe]

18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Latest qpf from the National Blend of Models.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Latest qpf from the National Blend of Models.

That's what we are talking about lol. Already posted.

[mahantango#1]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Latest qpf from the National Blend of Models.

It needs to come more north about 150- 200 more miles. Still time for it to do that. But will it?

[ChescoWx]

16 hours ago, Jns2183 said:

Are those by days of snow individually or do you compress multiple days to one storm. If you want I can send you how I did Harrisburg as well as raw data going back to 1890

Sent from my SM-S731U using Tapatalk
 

Yes I compiled multiple days into single events - not snow days. I would love to see your data! Thank you!

[ChescoWx]

This morning's low here in East Nantmeal was 7.8 degrees our coldest reading since the 4.0-degree temperature last January 23rd. The coldest reading across the area was the 0.8 above zero at Warwick Township. We stay cold through tomorrow before a one day warming trend on Thursday gets our temperatures back to around 40 degrees. Lows by tomorrow morning will likely fall to near or below zero in the colder valley locations. We get colder again on Thursday night and stay in the freezer through the weekend. Snow looks to arrive with a potentially significant winter storm by late Saturday or early Sunday.

[paweather]

Time for 12z

[Eskimo Joe]

1 hour ago, mahantango#1 said:

It needs to come more north about 150- 200 more miles. Still time for it to do that. But will it?

With such a sustained, power ful press of arctic air coming down, I'm not sure how further north this climbs. In some sense, this reminds me of the December 2009 snow event for PA. There was the last second nudge north that brough warning level snowfall (6"+) to the southern tier, but the cutoff was sharp. In eastern PA, Allentown was almost smoking cirrus while it was piling up in Philly and Lancaster.

[mahantango#1]

 another good video. there are a lot of answers to be determined yet https://x.com/AccuRayno/status/2013605353305317530?s=20

[Eskimo Joe]

Saw a couple questions about blizzard potential. We'd need a coastal to rapidly deepen as it pulls away. None of the guidance currently suggests that, so it looks like that is off the table with this event. 

[GrandmasterB]

9 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

With such a sustained, power ful press of arctic air coming down, I'm not sure how further north this climbs. In some sense, this reminds me of the December 2009 snow event for PA. There was the last second nudge north that brough warning level snowfall (6"+) to the southern tier, but the cutoff was sharp. In eastern PA, Allentown was almost smoking cirrus while it was piling up in Philly and Lancaster.

I remember the modeling really hitting the sharp cutoff in the lead up to that event. It pretty much verified just a bit further north. This one is not currently modeled as extreme a cutoff as that event. 
Another positive that’s already been mentioned is the ratios will help us up here too. So I’ll be trying not to live and die with the QPF output, but will end up doing just that anyway. Will be a long week for sure.

[mahantango#1]

9 minutes ago, GrandmasterB said:

I remember the modeling really hitting the sharp cutoff in the lead up to that event. It pretty much verified just a bit further north. This one is not currently modeled as extreme a cutoff as that event. 
Another positive that’s already been mentioned is the ratios will help us up here too. So I’ll be trying not to live and die with the QPF output, but will end up doing just that anyway. Will be a long week for sure.

Sleepless nights are certain for the rest of this week.

[paweather]

Just now, mahantango#1 said:

Sleepless nights are certain for the rest of this week.

For sure stayed up for the EURO this morning might try to get some sleep tonight before staying up the rest of the week with naps lol