Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[mahantango#1]

 

DT-WxRisk

 

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0Z TUES UKMET/ EURO ENSEMBLE SNOWFALL MAPS: these maps are based on 10 to 1 snow ratios. Jan 24-25 will see arctic air in Mid Atlantic/ TN valley so these snow maps could be UNDERDONE #wxtwitter #vawx #mdwx #wvwx #dcwx #pawx #phlwx #rvawx #ncwx #rduwx #njwx #nywx #nycwx #ohwx #kywx #tnwx

 

 

4:49 AM · Jan 20, 2026

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‪DT-WxRisk‬ ‪@wxrisk.bsky.social‬

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[mahantango#1]

 

[Mount Joy Snowman]

11 at the house when I left and 3 through the rurals. I haven’t had much time to dive into things for this weekend, will do so today, but from what I’ve seen on this board my pants are officially getting tight. Big week ahead. 

[NepaJames8602]

Zero degrees here in my part of the Poconos at 630 am. Wind died down some, and snow pack really allowed temps to plummet. 

This weekend is now looking more interesting. It's a good thing being on the northern edge 4 to 5 days out imo.

[Voyager]

This is from Mount Holly, but relates to our forum as well. As of now, a 40% chance of at least moderate impacts for many in our area.

[mahantango#1]

3 minutes ago, Voyager said:

This is from Mount Holly, but relates to our forum as well. As of now, a 40% chance of at least moderate impacts for many in our area.

We can't shovel potential and probability, only the real deal can be shoveled.  but we'll take this at this point.

[mahantango#1]

4 this morning.

[Blizzard of 93]

Great trends continue at 6z for this weekend. 

6z GEFS bumped north with the good snow by at least 50 miles over 0z.

[anotherman]

Great trends continue at 6z for this weekend. 
6z GEFS bumped north with the good snow by at least 50 miles over 0z.

Some of the good posters on the mid-atlantic board expect it to come more north.

[Blizzard of 93]

6z GFS & Euro AI at 6z also bumped north. 

[Itstrainingtime]

Anxiously following and pulling hard for you guys! Can't believe I might miss something special. Reel it in.

48 here in Cocoa Beach. That's not too bad until you factor in a north wind at 17 gusting to near 30. Coldest I've experienced here since 2006.

[Blizzard of 93]

Low of 7 in Marysville.

[Itstrainingtime]

1 hour ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

11 at the house when I left and 3 through the rurals. I haven’t had much time to dive into things for this weekend, will do so today, but from what I’ve seen on this board my pants are officially getting tight. Big week ahead. 

Pants tight?

I remember those times...

[canderson]

10 is my low 

[paweather]

Game on!

[mahantango#1]

1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said:

Anxiously following and pulling hard for you guys! Can't believe I might miss something special. Reel it in.

48 here in Cocoa Beach. That's not too bad until you factor in a north wind at 17 gusting to near 30. Coldest I've experienced here since 2006.

I think You need to cut your vacation short and head home immediately to potentially enjoy the festivities that mother nature could provide.

[mahantango#1]

Last nights northern lights.

 

[anotherman]

Anxiously following and pulling hard for you guys! Can't believe I might miss something special. Reel it in.
48 here in Cocoa Beach. That's not too bad until you factor in a north wind at 17 gusting to near 30. Coldest I've experienced here since 2006.

When I went to Disney world a few years ago between Christmas and NYE I was terrified I would miss a big storm.

[Eskimo Joe]

18 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Latest qpf from the National Blend of Models.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Latest qpf from the National Blend of Models.

That's what we are talking about lol. Already posted.

[mahantango#1]

2 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Latest qpf from the National Blend of Models.

It needs to come more north about 150- 200 more miles. Still time for it to do that. But will it?

[CAPE]

From Google AI-

Key Methods for Determining Snow Ratios in NBM:

• Temperature-Based Algorithms: The SLR is highly dependent on boundary layer and low-level temperatures (surface to 850 mb). Generally, colder air results in higher ratios (fluffy, dry snow), while temperatures near freezing produce lower ratios (wet, dense snow).
• Melting Rates for Marginal Temperatures: For temperatures at or above 32°F, the NBM v4.2 incorporates idealized melting rates. The total SLR is reduced based on the ratio of melting to accumulating snow, effectively lowering the ratio if the snow melts as it falls.
• Dynamic/Algorithm-Based Ratios: Instead of a default 10:1, the NBM uses algorithms that consider factors such as:
  • Wind Speed: Higher wind speeds can lead to lower ratios due to snowflake fracturing.
  • Cloud Structure: The presence of supercooled water droplets (higher riming) vs. depositional growth influences the ratio.
• Ensemble Member Blending: The NBM uses output from several models (HRRR, GFS, ECMWF) to calculate a probabilistic snowfall, utilizing the best-performing models to determine the most likely ratio for a given area.
• Elevation Adjustments: Ratios are adjusted upward at higher elevations to account for colder, drier conditions in mountainous terrain.