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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

MAG5035

By MAG5035,
in Upstate New York/Pennsylvania

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Jns2183
Jns2183

My brother got my daughter and I , a nephew of his dog. Pure Husky. I had to put my dog down a year ago. He was alive before my daughter was born. He knew I was looking for one because I thought it wa

MAG5035
MAG5035

We have a couple potential events this week. A potent shortwave traversing the Great Lakes Wednesday and another potential wave(s) over the weekend. The low on Wednesday passes north of PA, which will

ChescoWx
ChescoWx

Another 1.0" has fallen here in East Nantmeal since 6am total snow 8.5"  Still some light snow temp down to 26.9

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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3 hours ago, GrandmasterB said:

From a met in the NE forum. Sign me up! 

“Seems a pretty straightforward setup for back half Jan, rebuild source region in western Canada late next week/weekend, likely leaking cold into the northast at times with GOA ridging (-EPO) beyond.  Chances for coastals during transition periods, and perhaps a more active southern stream from MLK and after.”

One thing to keep an eye on is the MJO, which has been in the null phase for most of the last few weeks (not a major influencer). Models are forecasting it to finally strengthen, with most sending it solidly into Phase 6 later next week (esp GEFS). Euro guidance was more toward the border of Phase 6/7. Phase 6 is more often than not one of the eastern US torch phases with a high degree of corellation. Given some lag time this would generally suggest another warm period coming at some point possibly late month. Ensembles are definitely NOT showing much signs of that today temp-wise in the D10-15 range.

So this will all be interesting to watch evolve. EPO/WPO are forecast to go pretty negative in that 10-15 day range along with a -AO/NAO. One of the few more recent examples of it not mattering much being in the warm phases was 2014 and 2015, and the main drivers of the cold those winters were in fact a persistently strong negative EPO/WPO.  

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Blizzard of 93

Blizzard of 93

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The best part about 0z so far for the 15th is that both the GFS & Canadian have an organized low that brings snow to the region. The last few days have shown a random run here or there that have looked interesting, but tonight it’s good  to see both models with a decent system that snows on us or very close by.

IMG_1437.png

IMG_1438.png

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pawatch

pawatch

Posted
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27 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:
Temperatures will trend warmer through Friday, but will the trend continue on Saturday?
There is CONSIDERABLE uncertainty in Saturday's high temperatures across Central PA.
A warm front will lift north, but how far north it gets will have BIG influence on temperatures
May be an image of text that says '70 Daily High Temperature Percentiles Harrisburg, PA Friday Saturday Thursday 65 Sunday 65 Case" 58 "Best 56 52 51 49 60 (너) Temperature 55 50 5 Max 吉 35 46 62 53 Most 52 Likely "Worst 0.49 Case" 45 48 44 30 40 38 25 Fri Jan 10 Jan Sat Son_Jan1 11 Jan Sun'

Not really sure what to think of this chart…we need percentages for what the temperature is going to be.

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pasnownut

pasnownut

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21 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

Maybe the best of winter is yet to come! Waiting for that 2' snow storm, it's been awhile!

Been thinking the same.  Looking at pattern evolution doesnt have that look....but seeing southern stream getting active and lots pinwheeling through the NS, you can see how chances are increasing, and it's litterally a matter of time(ing) till somethin pops.  At the minimum it really looks active, so me thinks much modelwatching is about to happen.  Prepare for blizz's snowmaps ^_^

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mahantango#1

mahantango#1

Posted
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1 minute ago, pasnownut said:

Been thinking the same.  Looking at pattern evolution doesnt have that look....but seeing southern stream getting active and lots pinwheeling through the NS, you can see how chances are increasing, and it's litterally a matter of time(ing) till somethin pops.  At the minimum it really looks active, so me thinks much modelwatching is about to happen.  Prepare for blizz's snowmaps ^_^

I remember back in the late 70s we had a snowstorm on a Monday,Wednesday and Friday the same week. I don't remember what month it was. It was either January or February. Each storm dumped a foot each time. I remember Penndot was working around the clock that whole week plowing. Would be nice to see that again.

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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

Posted
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Some large temperature spreads this morning across the area with lower valley locations like Warwick Township with a low at 25.8 degrees while higher spots like here in East Nantmeal could go no lower than 35.7 degrees. Our mild weather continues through Saturday before we turn back to temperatures not too far either side of average for January by Sunday and through much of next week. We have rain chances increasing by later tomorrow and lasting till toward midnight on Saturday night. This could be one of our more significant rain events in the last few months with some models hinting at over an inch of rain. Looking further ahead it appears likely we turn significantly colder by next weekend but at this point no significant winter events are on the horizon. For those on Team No Snow fingers crossed it stays that way!

image.png.5e625eaa2f1fe34902c9d4441fe25b93.pngimage.thumb.png.e806b98577e8979fe19b18da293ed9e8.png

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

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Posted
28 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said:

I remember back in the late 70s we had a snowstorm on a Monday,Wednesday and Friday the same week. I don't remember what month it was. It was either January or February. Each storm dumped a foot each time. I remember Penndot was working around the clock that whole week plowing. Would be nice to see that again.

1977-78. I had 71" that winter in Manor Township. That winter featured a true blizzard in late January that was the 3rd storm to hit in 7 days. My records (I was 13 at the time) was 11" on 1-13 followed by 7" on 1/16 and then the blizzard dropped 18" on 1/20. My notes indicate that we had a drift measuring nearly 10' high in our driveway the morning of 1/21 and had to have the township's V-plow dig us out. 

Edit: I compiled those notes with the help of my late father - they should be pretty darn accurate, or at least as accurate as 13 year old weather freak could be. :)  

The blizzard of 1978 was very unique in that snow totals were highest in NW PA and lowest in Philly. Uncommon for huge east coast storms. 

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mahantango#1

mahantango#1

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3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said:

1977-78. I had 71" that winter in Manor Township. That winter featured a true blizzard in late January that was the 3rd storm to hit in 7 days. My records (I was 13 at the time) was 11" on 1-13 followed by 7" on 1/16 and then the blizzard dropped 18" on 1/20. My notes indicate that we had a drift measuring nearly 10' high in our driveway the morning of 1/21 and had to have the township's V-plow dig us out. 

Edit: I compiled those notes with the help of my late father - they should be pretty darn accurate, or at least as accurate as 13 year old weather freak could be. :)  

Glad you have those records from way back!

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

Posted
Posted
Just now, mahantango#1 said:

Glad you have those records from way back!

You have a great memory. I have pretty vivid memories of the blizzard, it was the first time in my life that bushes in our front yard were completely buried. I honestly have little to no memory of the first 2 storms that week. 

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