pasnownut Posted yesterday at 04:44 PM Share Posted yesterday at 04:44 PM CMC not as good as 6z GFS, but its closer to something. Still need to sort out energy w/ NS and SS. longer duration light/mod event verbatim. I'd sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted yesterday at 05:37 PM Share Posted yesterday at 05:37 PM Happy birthday @sauss06 Saturday looks like a washout. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted yesterday at 06:03 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:03 PM 23 minutes ago, canderson said: Happy birthday @sauss06 Saturday looks like a washout. Sure does. The airmass is in place to hit your 60 degree prediction but I wonder if there will be enough clouds and rain around to keep us just shy. Could be close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted yesterday at 06:28 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:28 PM Overachieving temps out there today...up to 57 in Maytown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted yesterday at 06:56 PM Share Posted yesterday at 06:56 PM 26 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Overachieving temps out there today...up to 57 in Maytown. Low to mid 50's in Allentown, but only 46 in my backyard. Wish it was sunnier, but we're mostly cloudy here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted yesterday at 07:02 PM Share Posted yesterday at 07:02 PM Car reads 59. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted yesterday at 07:35 PM Author Share Posted yesterday at 07:35 PM 3 hours ago, GrandmasterB said: From a met in the NE forum. Sign me up! “Seems a pretty straightforward setup for back half Jan, rebuild source region in western Canada late next week/weekend, likely leaking cold into the northast at times with GOA ridging (-EPO) beyond. Chances for coastals during transition periods, and perhaps a more active southern stream from MLK and after.” One thing to keep an eye on is the MJO, which has been in the null phase for most of the last few weeks (not a major influencer). Models are forecasting it to finally strengthen, with most sending it solidly into Phase 6 later next week (esp GEFS). Euro guidance was more toward the border of Phase 6/7. Phase 6 is more often than not one of the eastern US torch phases with a high degree of corellation. Given some lag time this would generally suggest another warm period coming at some point possibly late month. Ensembles are definitely NOT showing much signs of that today temp-wise in the D10-15 range. So this will all be interesting to watch evolve. EPO/WPO are forecast to go pretty negative in that 10-15 day range along with a -AO/NAO. One of the few more recent examples of it not mattering much being in the warm phases was 2014 and 2015, and the main drivers of the cold those winters were in fact a persistently strong negative EPO/WPO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted yesterday at 08:21 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:21 PM 2 hours ago, canderson said: Happy birthday @sauss06 Saturday looks like a washout. Happy Birthday @sauss06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted yesterday at 08:31 PM Share Posted yesterday at 08:31 PM Happy birthday Jon! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted yesterday at 09:10 PM Share Posted yesterday at 09:10 PM Happy Birthday Sauss! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 22 hours ago Share Posted 22 hours ago 2 hours ago, pawatch said: Happy Birthday Sauss! Happy birthday @sauss06 ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 19 hours ago Share Posted 19 hours ago Happy birthday @sauss06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted 18 hours ago Share Posted 18 hours ago More wind Sunday. Advisories probably I’d think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 16 hours ago Share Posted 16 hours ago The best part about 0z so far for the 15th is that both the GFS & Canadian have an organized low that brings snow to the region. The last few days have shown a random run here or there that have looked interesting, but tonight it’s good to see both models with a decent system that snows on us or very close by. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago Much need rain is coming, as of now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago BIG CHANGES NEXT WEEK THIS WEEK IN WEATHER JAN 7-8 2026 Great video presentation. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted 10 hours ago Share Posted 10 hours ago Temperatures will trend warmer through Friday, but will the trend continue on Saturday? There is CONSIDERABLE uncertainty in Saturday's high temperatures across Central PA. A warm front will lift north, but how far north it gets will have BIG influence on temperatures Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 53 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Much need rain is coming, as of now. The other day it was .76” rain keeps dwindling, but we will take what we can get. 32 degrees this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 27 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Temperatures will trend warmer through Friday, but will the trend continue on Saturday? There is CONSIDERABLE uncertainty in Saturday's high temperatures across Central PA. A warm front will lift north, but how far north it gets will have BIG influence on temperatures Not really sure what to think of this chart…we need percentages for what the temperature is going to be. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago Global ensembles overnight continued to ramp up snow amounts for week 2 through day 16. We should at least have chances for Winter weather tracking starting next week & beyond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Global ensembles overnight continued to ramp up snow amounts for week 2 through day 16. We should at least have chances for Winter weather tracking starting next week & beyond. Maybe the best of winter is yet to come! Waiting for that 2' snow storm, it's been awhile! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted 9 hours ago Share Posted 9 hours ago 5 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Global ensembles overnight continued to ramp up snow amounts for week 2 through day 16. We should at least have chances for Winter weather tracking starting next week & beyond. Good news. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 21 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: Maybe the best of winter is yet to come! Waiting for that 2' snow storm, it's been awhile! Been thinking the same. Looking at pattern evolution doesnt have that look....but seeing southern stream getting active and lots pinwheeling through the NS, you can see how chances are increasing, and it's litterally a matter of time(ing) till somethin pops. At the minimum it really looks active, so me thinks much modelwatching is about to happen. Prepare for blizz's snowmaps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: Been thinking the same. Looking at pattern evolution doesnt have that look....but seeing southern stream getting active and lots pinwheeling through the NS, you can see how chances are increasing, and it's litterally a matter of time(ing) till somethin pops. At the minimum it really looks active, so me thinks much modelwatching is about to happen. Prepare for blizz's snowmaps I remember back in the late 70s we had a snowstorm on a Monday,Wednesday and Friday the same week. I don't remember what month it was. It was either January or February. Each storm dumped a foot each time. I remember Penndot was working around the clock that whole week plowing. Would be nice to see that again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Some large temperature spreads this morning across the area with lower valley locations like Warwick Township with a low at 25.8 degrees while higher spots like here in East Nantmeal could go no lower than 35.7 degrees. Our mild weather continues through Saturday before we turn back to temperatures not too far either side of average for January by Sunday and through much of next week. We have rain chances increasing by later tomorrow and lasting till toward midnight on Saturday night. This could be one of our more significant rain events in the last few months with some models hinting at over an inch of rain. Looking further ahead it appears likely we turn significantly colder by next weekend but at this point no significant winter events are on the horizon. For those on Team No Snow fingers crossed it stays that way! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 28 minutes ago, mahantango#1 said: I remember back in the late 70s we had a snowstorm on a Monday,Wednesday and Friday the same week. I don't remember what month it was. It was either January or February. Each storm dumped a foot each time. I remember Penndot was working around the clock that whole week plowing. Would be nice to see that again. 1977-78. I had 71" that winter in Manor Township. That winter featured a true blizzard in late January that was the 3rd storm to hit in 7 days. My records (I was 13 at the time) was 11" on 1-13 followed by 7" on 1/16 and then the blizzard dropped 18" on 1/20. My notes indicate that we had a drift measuring nearly 10' high in our driveway the morning of 1/21 and had to have the township's V-plow dig us out. Edit: I compiled those notes with the help of my late father - they should be pretty darn accurate, or at least as accurate as 13 year old weather freak could be. The blizzard of 1978 was very unique in that snow totals were highest in NW PA and lowest in Philly. Uncommon for huge east coast storms. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Obviously, I was still fairly young in 1978 but I suspect that if I was a little older, that week might have been my best week of winter weather and not the weeks in 2010 or 1996. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: 1977-78. I had 71" that winter in Manor Township. That winter featured a true blizzard in late January that was the 3rd storm to hit in 7 days. My records (I was 13 at the time) was 11" on 1-13 followed by 7" on 1/16 and then the blizzard dropped 18" on 1/20. My notes indicate that we had a drift measuring nearly 10' high in our driveway the morning of 1/21 and had to have the township's V-plow dig us out. Edit: I compiled those notes with the help of my late father - they should be pretty darn accurate, or at least as accurate as 13 year old weather freak could be. Glad you have those records from way back! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Just now, mahantango#1 said: Glad you have those records from way back! You have a great memory. I have pretty vivid memories of the blizzard, it was the first time in my life that bushes in our front yard were completely buried. I honestly have little to no memory of the first 2 storms that week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mount Joy Snowman Posted 8 hours ago Share Posted 8 hours ago Low of 34. Looks like the rain is indeed cutting back on the forecasted highs for saturday, as I'm now down to 51. Maybe Friday will pop with a bit of early clearing. After starting this stretch of warmth ~4 degrees BN, MDT will end it ~4 degrees AN. Then things turn "interesting" again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now