Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

[WmsptWx]

7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

It's certainly possible, and if that does end up being the case it will likely be due to lack of qpf more than anything else.  Additionally, the worst of the conditions may hold off until much later in the evening after people are done running around, which would add to the perceived flop.  I still think conditions will be treacherous for a time tonight, but it may be late enough to not cause serious problems.  We shall see. 

Yeah, temps aren't the issue, it just seems like the precip shield is going to end up further NE than what it was looking like. It will still be slick in some spots but we're starting to become the detour again for north and south. 

[Blizzard of 93]

Latest HRRR brings over 1 inch of sleet to Harrisburg & Lancaster with a tenth or 2 of freezing rain on top.

[Jns2183]

Skew-t diagrams are going to earn their keep today

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[ChescoWx]

Our 6th winter event of the season arrives across the area late this afternoon and evening. We should see a brief period of snow followed by a longer period of accumulating sleet and ending early tomorrow as some freezing drizzle. Temperatures will remain well below freezing in most spots with highs in the middle and upper 20's. Road conditions will deteriorate rapidly this evening. We will stay cloudy and cold tomorrow with temperatures near freezing. Rain arrives on Sunday afternoon and lasts through much of Monday with much warmer temperatures on Monday. We turn sharply colder again on Monday night with temperatures remaining well below normal to close out 2025 and welcome in 2026.

[Itstrainingtime]

On 12/22/2025 at 9:26 AM, Itstrainingtime said:

@Mount Joy Snowman fun fact: as of this morning, here are two seasonal snowfall totals that I find interesting:

• Itstrainingtime's house: 5.5"
• Mammoth Lakes, CA: 4"

It has been an historically awful start to the ski/winter season in CA. There are bare spots on Mammoth right now...that's just ludicrous in late December. Good news for them, things are changing in a big way this week. Snow arrives in town tomorrow and by the weekend there should be at least 3-4' in town with at least double that on the mountain. 

96 hours later - 

Itstrainingtime's house: 5.6"

Mammoth Lakes, CA: 71" 

This is potentially good news for us as we want storm cycles to eject out of CA at our latitude as they begin their journey east. 

[mitchnick]

29 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Latest HRRR brings over 1 inch of sleet to Harrisburg & Lancaster with a tenth or 2 of freezing rain on top.

This system has reverted back to the old days of Niñas when the snow/freezing line slowly crept north as we got closer to the event. Unlike the snows in VA earlier in the month that never really bugged much at all from several days out.

[HBGCPA10]

Temps creeping up in West Hanover Township 30.2, dew point of 12 is going to be the saving grace for frozen precipitation.

[canderson]

2 minutes ago, HBGCPA10 said:

Temps creeping up in West Hanover Township 30.2, dew point of 12 is going to be the saving grace for frozen precipitation.

It’s super dry air out there - static shock city this morning 

[Superstorm]

96 hours later - 
Itstrainingtime's house: 5.6"
Mammoth Lakes, CA: 71" 
This is potentially good news for us as we want storm cycles to eject out of CA at our latitude as they begin their journey east. 

Like your thinking.

The models starting to show some real action.


.

[Jns2183]

Temps creeping up in West Hanover Township 30.2, dew point of 12 is going to be the saving grace for frozen precipitation.

I mean it is 1030am and I see the halo sun. Did we not expect temperature to rise at all today? Don't most winter storms have a component of dynamic cooling? If anything today I would pay attention to mid level dry air intrusion. That's why I'm bullish on more freezing rain/drizzle than most. I think we see an extended period of freezing drizzle at the end. That's outcome of less preceiptitation in total. Much more ice

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[Ruin]

Looks very dry im glad I didn't want a ice storm

[WX-PA]

4 minutes ago, Ruin said:

Looks very dry im glad I didn't want a ice storm

Doesn't take much for an ice storm..roads are going to be horrible late this afternoon

[pawatch]

2 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Additionally, most of us are slightly above normal snow for the season to date as well.

Blizzard -3.4” on snowfall this season. Hopefully we will get caught back up in the future.

[Blizzard of 93]

2 minutes ago, pawatch said:

Blizzard -3.4” on snow fall this season. Hopefully we will get caught back up in the future.

MDT is above normal for the season to date at 5.0” 

 

 

[MAG5035]

Precip starting here, ZR and some pingers. 28.6/16.0ºF

[canderson]

My new TV is set to be delivered currently at 3:44 pm. It’ll be fun seeing how this goes. 

[Jns2183]

Looks very dry im glad I didn't want a ice storm

Dry is what gives you a worse ice storm around here. Wet we would have a raging sleet bomb which is fun in its own right, but much easier to handle road wise. 0.02" to 0.05" per hour is the ideal rate for ice accretion at the temperatures this evening. I don't know what you want from this storm besides. It seems like you would be happiest if we got nothing.

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[Jns2183]

If you want a storm that is a blizzard cradle to death you had one in 1993. It happens once ever 50-100 years. Everything else is going to be hard around here. If you move to mt. Shasta it's a bit easier

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[717Weather]

25.7/14.1 Here on the east side awaiting the start. 

Temp has been nearly stable in the mid 20s since 3am.

[Ruin]

35 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

Doesn't take much for an ice storm..roads are going to be horrible late this afternoon

I know but the state of the radar gives me hope what ever falls wont do much esp with temps all ready above where they were forecasted at this point.

[Blizzard of 93]

Just now, Ruin said:

I know but the state of the radar gives me hope what ever falls wont do much esp with temps all ready above where they were forecasted at this point.

Look at your dew point…………..

[Blizzard of 93]

MDT dew point is currently 9.

Lots of cold air in place, so say it with me… “air temp will drop when precipitation begins”. Lol!

[Mount Joy Snowman]

9 minutes ago, Jns2183 said:

If you want a storm that is a blizzard cradle to death you had one in 1993. It happens once ever 50-100 years. Everything else is going to be hard around here. If you move to mt. Shasta it's a bit easier

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Mt. Shasta!  My profile pic!

[mahantango#1]

Temp here 28.6 dp 16

[MAG5035]

1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

I mean it is 1030am and I see the halo sun. Did we not expect temperature to rise at all today? Don't most winter storms have a component of dynamic cooling? If anything today I would pay attention to mid level dry air intrusion. That's why I'm bullish on more freezing rain/drizzle than most. I think we see an extended period of freezing drizzle at the end. That's outcome of less preceiptitation in total. Much more ice

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This was the 12z sounding at LWX (Dulles) this morning at 12z, which was similar to PIT’s. One heck of a dry layer between 900-800mb at that time. There will certainly be some dynamic cooling to be had as this event gets going but also that dry layer is going to need to be overcome as well. Precip is already hitting the ground in a lot of C-PA spots though looking at mPING obs, but also could remain more scattered for awhile like the near term guidance has been hinting.

[Storm Clouds]

Radar is pretty pathetic…good no one needs ice during the holidays and all the traveling! 

[Jns2183]

This was the 12z sounding at LWX (Dulles) this morning at 12z, which was similar to PIT’s. One heck of a dry layer between 900-800mb at that time. There will certainly be some dynamic cooling to be had as this event gets going but also that dry layer is going to need to be overcome as well. Precip is already hitting the ground in a lot of C-PA spots though looking at mPING obs, but also could remain more scattered for awhile like the near term guidance has been hinting.

I also think it's hard for people to grasp that a low preceiptitation rate and this lower preceiptitation can turn out worse for ice accretion than a steady rain. Ice accretion has a band for maximum effect that depends upon temperature, basically the lower a temperature at the surface the bigger a band. A multi hour light preceiptitation event that's freezing rain in the upper 20's is prime trouble.

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[WmsptWx]

It's coming 

 

 

[Ruin]

3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Latest HRRR brings over 1 inch of sleet to Harrisburg & Lancaster with a tenth or 2 of freezing rain on top.

keeps on lowering it late last night it was 2 inchs of sleet

[WmsptWx]

Coming down HARD