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Central PA Winter 25/26 Discussion and Obs

MAG5035
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WmsptWx

WmsptWx

Posted
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7 minutes ago, Mount Joy Snowman said:

It's certainly possible, and if that does end up being the case it will likely be due to lack of qpf more than anything else.  Additionally, the worst of the conditions may hold off until much later in the evening after people are done running around, which would add to the perceived flop.  I still think conditions will be treacherous for a time tonight, but it may be late enough to not cause serious problems.  We shall see. 

Yeah, temps aren't the issue, it just seems like the precip shield is going to end up further NE than what it was looking like. It will still be slick in some spots but we're starting to become the detour again for north and south. 

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Jns2183
Jns2183

My brother got my daughter and I , a nephew of his dog. Pure Husky. I had to put my dog down a year ago. He was alive before my daughter was born. He knew I was looking for one because I thought it wa

MAG5035
MAG5035

We have a couple potential events this week. A potent shortwave traversing the Great Lakes Wednesday and another potential wave(s) over the weekend. The low on Wednesday passes north of PA, which will

ChescoWx
ChescoWx

Another 1.0" has fallen here in East Nantmeal since 6am total snow 8.5"  Still some light snow temp down to 26.9

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ChescoWx

ChescoWx

Posted
Posted

Our 6th winter event of the season arrives across the area late this afternoon and evening. We should see a brief period of snow followed by a longer period of accumulating sleet and ending early tomorrow as some freezing drizzle. Temperatures will remain well below freezing in most spots with highs in the middle and upper 20's. Road conditions will deteriorate rapidly this evening. We will stay cloudy and cold tomorrow with temperatures near freezing. Rain arrives on Sunday afternoon and lasts through much of Monday with much warmer temperatures on Monday. We turn sharply colder again on Monday night with temperatures remaining well below normal to close out 2025 and welcome in 2026.

image.png.62caa5dab42da11c986daf5d53381139.pngimage.thumb.png.f5f7e522fdc66631bfe54e540ae729fd.png

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Itstrainingtime

Itstrainingtime

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On 12/22/2025 at 9:26 AM, Itstrainingtime said:

@Mount Joy Snowman fun fact: as of this morning, here are two seasonal snowfall totals that I find interesting:

  • Itstrainingtime's house: 5.5"
  • Mammoth Lakes, CA: 4"

It has been an historically awful start to the ski/winter season in CA. There are bare spots on Mammoth right now...that's just ludicrous in late December. Good news for them, things are changing in a big way this week. Snow arrives in town tomorrow and by the weekend there should be at least 3-4' in town with at least double that on the mountain. 

96 hours later - 

Itstrainingtime's house: 5.6"

Mammoth Lakes, CA: 71" 

This is potentially good news for us as we want storm cycles to eject out of CA at our latitude as they begin their journey east. 

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mitchnick

mitchnick

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29 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said:

Latest HRRR brings over 1 inch of sleet to Harrisburg & Lancaster with a tenth or 2 of freezing rain on top.

IMG_1278.png

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This system has reverted back to the old days of Niñas when the snow/freezing line slowly crept north as we got closer to the event. Unlike the snows in VA earlier in the month that never really bugged much at all from several days out.

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Superstorm

Superstorm

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96 hours later - 
Itstrainingtime's house: 5.6"
Mammoth Lakes, CA: 71" 
This is potentially good news for us as we want storm cycles to eject out of CA at our latitude as they begin their journey east. 

Like your thinking.

The models starting to show some real action.


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Jns2183

Jns2183

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Temps creeping up in West Hanover Township 30.2, dew point of 12 is going to be the saving grace for frozen precipitation.
I mean it is 1030am and I see the halo sun. Did we not expect temperature to rise at all today? Don't most winter storms have a component of dynamic cooling? If anything today I would pay attention to mid level dry air intrusion. That's why I'm bullish on more freezing rain/drizzle than most. I think we see an extended period of freezing drizzle at the end. That's outcome of less preceiptitation in total. Much more ice

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Jns2183

Jns2183

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Looks very dry im glad I didn't want a ice storm
Dry is what gives you a worse ice storm around here. Wet we would have a raging sleet bomb which is fun in its own right, but much easier to handle road wise. 0.02" to 0.05" per hour is the ideal rate for ice accretion at the temperatures this evening. I don't know what you want from this storm besides. It seems like you would be happiest if we got nothing.

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Jns2183

Jns2183

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If you want a storm that is a blizzard cradle to death you had one in 1993. It happens once ever 50-100 years. Everything else is going to be hard around here. If you move to mt. Shasta it's a bit easier

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Ruin

Ruin

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35 minutes ago, WX-PA said:

Doesn't take much for an ice storm..roads are going to be horrible late this afternoon

I know but the state of the radar gives me hope what ever falls wont do much esp with temps all ready above where they were forecasted at this point.

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MAG5035

MAG5035

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1 hour ago, Jns2183 said:

I mean it is 1030am and I see the halo sun. Did we not expect temperature to rise at all today? Don't most winter storms have a component of dynamic cooling? If anything today I would pay attention to mid level dry air intrusion. That's why I'm bullish on more freezing rain/drizzle than most. I think we see an extended period of freezing drizzle at the end. That's outcome of less preceiptitation in total. Much more ice

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This was the 12z sounding at LWX (Dulles) this morning at 12z, which was similar to PIT’s. One heck of a dry layer between 900-800mb at that time. There will certainly be some dynamic cooling to be had as this event gets going but also that dry layer is going to need to be overcome as well. Precip is already hitting the ground in a lot of C-PA spots though looking at mPING obs, but also could remain more scattered for awhile like the near term guidance has been hinting.

image.thumb.png.46892abaf1850624be48069105d7c128.png

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Jns2183

Jns2183

Posted
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This was the 12z sounding at LWX (Dulles) this morning at 12z, which was similar to PIT’s. One heck of a dry layer between 900-800mb at that time. There will certainly be some dynamic cooling to be had as this event gets going but also that dry layer is going to need to be overcome as well. Precip is already hitting the ground in a lot of C-PA spots though looking at mPING obs, but also could remain more scattered for awhile like the near term guidance has been hinting.
image.thumb.png.46892abaf1850624be48069105d7c128.png
I also think it's hard for people to grasp that a low preceiptitation rate and this lower preceiptitation can turn out worse for ice accretion than a steady rain. Ice accretion has a band for maximum effect that depends upon temperature, basically the lower a temperature at the surface the bigger a band. A multi hour light preceiptitation event that's freezing rain in the upper 20's is prime trouble.

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