12/2 Cold Rain and High Elevation Snow

[mappy]

4 minutes ago, 87storms said:

Dew point is favorable, too

38/22 currently

[mappy]

1 minute ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Congrats your wet bulb is below freezing already. I think you get an inch of snow.

My backyard station confirms a wet bulb of 32. It’s gonna snow whether it accumulates or not. 

[Terpeast]

40/23, still clear

[TSSN+]

37/20 here under mostly clear skies 

[bncho]

41/23. Mainly clear.

[Imgoinhungry]

What is HRRR picking up on that the NAM is not? Hrrr shows frozen precipitation for morning rush in dc metro. NAM does not.

Nam showing warmer temps aloft?

Is one better than the other within 12 hours of onset?


.

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said:

What is HRRR picking up on that the NAM is not? Hrrr shows frozen precipitation for morning rush in dc metro. NAM does not.

Nam showing warmer temps aloft?

Is one better than the other within 12 hours of onset?


.

It's a very marginal setup...the HRRR and GFS aren't in actuality THAT far from the other guidance...they are just 1-2 degrees colder and have the precip come in a little harder initially...that combo is the difference between a thump snow along our NW fringe regions...and not.  It's not like the guidance is showing some vastly different outcome...its just the minor differences have rather significant impacts on the ground truth in this case.  

[wxdude64]

53 minutes ago, bncho said:

The Mid-Atlantic would be an extraordinarily snowy climate if water froze at 36 instead of 32.

It'd just drop to 38 degrees then.

[Imgoinhungry]

It's a very marginal setup...the HRRR and GFS aren't in actuality THAT far from the other guidance...they are just 1-2 degrees colder and have the precip come in a little harder initially...that combo is the difference between a thump snow along our NW fringe regions...and not.  It's not like the guidance is showing some vastly different outcome...its just the minor differences have rather significant differences in the ground truth in this case.  

Appreciate the response, thanks. I think i recall the hrrr doing well last winter? Particularly with all the snow south of DC.


.

[H2O]

40.3/22.6

[mitchnick]

Rgem did well up here with the January 19 storm last winter, though it turned out to be too cool further south. I'm going to bet it does OK with this one up here solely because it's the best case next to the Gfs that wants to drop 5-6" up here per the 18z run. So Rgem with its 2.5-3" is a fair compromise between other guidance and the Gfs outlier.

[wxmeddler]

We're at the point where we want to stay clear as long as possible.

[wxdude64]

The 'big thump' is exactly what is needed to get the very marginal spots to get accumulation before it warms a bit, best of luck to all of us! Whether we get snow or not, I think tomorrow is gonna be a dicy travel day, especially from the fall line west.

[wxdude64]

For those pushing the 'colder' ideas, I topped at 39.1 here after a 43 degree forecasted high. Currently 37.5/21.0. My chances of snow are much slimmer than further north, but it MAY start that way and get us white before the sleet and freezing rain take over.

Edit, in the time between looking to check and type this and now (maybe 5 minutes) I've dropped to 35.9/21.1. 

[Terpeast]

Dropped 3 degrees in 25 min. Now 37/22

[Chris78]

33 in Smithsburg 

[mappy]

Harford schools 2hr late

[mappy]

20 minutes ago, wxmeddler said:

We're at the point where we want to stay clear as long as possible.

Clear here. 34/20 WB 29

[SnowenOutThere]

Clouds are on the Southwestern horizon in Cville so I doubt I get much radiational cooling. That said, this was always going to be an ice and not snow "threat" for me. 

[Kay]

5 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

@wxmeddler did a thing for us!

 

 

On topic, bumping this post up. Off topic, I see there's now a Harford station, in Abingdon. Nice!

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

Harford schools 2hr late

With what the models are showing for that area?

[bncho]

39/23. It's still clear.

[mappy]

Just now, JenkinsJinkies said:

With what the models are showing for that area?

You’d have to call and ask them