Discussion OBS for minor to possibly moderate impact winter storm interior 4A Tue - midnight Tue 12/2/25, may bring first measurable snow-sleet to coastal areas including NYC

[golfer67]

5 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Incoming winter storm. About 36 hrs. out. Possible 1st measurable snow in CP..  No comments in over 2 hrs.? Only 5 members viewing? 

Most posters are NYC metro on south...not looking at much of anything there

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Incoming winter storm. About 36 hrs. out. Possible 1st measurable snow in CP..  No comments in over 2 hrs.? Only 5 members viewing? 

Unless it affects NYC, LI and the coastal plain of NJ there isn't much interest on this forum. Let's face it that's where 95%of the people on this forum live. 

WS watch here in Orange County. If it was in Manhattan this thread would be 10 times longer. 
 

 

[qg_omega]

15 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Incoming winter storm. About 36 hrs. out. Possible 1st measurable snow in CP..  No comments in over 2 hrs.? Only 5 members viewing? 

Looks like rain on Tuesday with temps around 40, like today so not much to discuss

[snywx]

17 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Incoming winter storm. About 36 hrs. out. Possible 1st measurable snow in CP..  No comments in over 2 hrs.? Only 5 members viewing? 

Unless you are in Sussex, Orange , Dutchess into NWCT there isn’t much interest in this storm. Most of this forum is in NYC, LI, urban Jersey where it’s gonna be 95% rain 

[sussexcountyobs]

2 minutes ago, snywx said:

Unless you are in Sussex, Orange , Dutchess into NWCT there isn’t much interest in this storm. Most of this forum is in NYC, LI, urban Jersey where it’s gonna be 95% rain 

Yes. I guess you are right. But still, this is an interesting storm to track. Could be surprises? I don't forecast, so I enjoy reading all the tracking, thoughts,  and forecasts of members.

[snywx]

3 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Yes. I guess you are right. But still, this is an interesting storm to track. Could be surprises? I don't forecast, so I enjoy reading all the tracking, thoughts,  and forecasts of members.

Not sure if you are aware but we do have an interior thread that gets fairly active during interior only events. 
 

 

[CPcantmeasuresnow]

12 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Yes. I guess you are right. But still, this is an interesting storm to track. Could be surprises? I don't forecast, so I enjoy reading all the tracking, thoughts,  and forecasts of members.

Leading up to storms like this I find myself going to the New England thread for updates.

Where I live 50 miles north of the city has a lot more in common with SW interior NE weather than it does with NYC and points south and east. 

[North and West]

Unless you are in Sussex, Orange , Dutchess into NWCT there isn’t much interest in this storm. Most of this forum is in NYC, LI, urban Jersey where it’s gonna be 95% rain 

Do you think anything going on at MMU with this to be interested in?

Live look in:



.

[NorthShoreWx]

48 minutes ago, snywx said:

Unless you are in Sussex, Orange , Dutchess into NWCT there isn’t much interest in this storm. Most of this forum is in NYC, LI, urban Jersey where it’s gonna be 95% rain 

What?  5% not rain?  Now I'm getting interested!

[donsutherland1]

30 minutes ago, CPcantmeasuresnow said:

Leading up to storms like this I find myself going to the New England thread for updates.

Where I live 50 miles north of the city has a lot more in common with SW interior NE weather than it does with NYC and points south and east. 

3"-6" seems realistic for Orange County (as for my sister in Milford, PA). This should be a nice event to get the winter season started.

[Snowlover11]

4 hours ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Incoming winter storm. About 36 hrs. out. Possible 1st measurable snow in CP..  No comments in over 2 hrs.? Only 5 members viewing? 

meh, even here in rockland county I’m not overly excited. I’m expecting maybe an inch or so(If that).

[Wxoutlooksblog]

5 hours ago, sussexcountyobs said:

Yes. I guess you are right. But still, this is an interesting storm to track. Could be surprises? I don't forecast, so I enjoy reading all the tracking, thoughts,  and forecasts of members.

Modeling is now good enough we do not usually get the surprises we got in the 1960s & 70s (very few in the 70s).

WX/PT

[Wxoutlooksblog]

5 hours ago, NorthShoreWx said:

What?  5% not rain?  Now I'm getting interested!

Less.

WX/PT

[Noteaster101]

1 hour ago, Snowlover11 said:

meh, even here in rockland county I’m not overly excited. I’m expecting maybe an inch or so(If that).

I’m right here in Pearl River, I’m definitely taking the ride up to Harriman or if I have to even go a little further to Monroe, those two areas seem to be the sweet spot of 5 to 8 inches, I will be enjoying the storm on Tuesday, don’t have to drive that far up the palisades to get into the good stuff

[ForestHillWx]

6 hours ago, North and West said:

Do you think anything going on at MMU with this to be interested in?

Live look in:



.

1-3”; rain snow line is real close to us. 

[Tatamy]

3 hours ago, Wxoutlooksblog said:

Modeling is now good enough we do not usually get the surprises we got in the 1960s & 70s (very few in the 70s).

WX/PT

This continues to be a highly interesting storm to track.  Multiple models have the rain/snow line within 10 miles north or south of my house.  The line seems to flip with each run.  For 06z I have been NAMed.  I do agree with your statement about less surprises however this storm certainly looks to be a good test of model precision.

[wdrag]

I've noted the adverse comments on storm interest.  I'll review any MODERATOR impression on value added for this thread. This has been accurately portrayed in advance, I think,  and the thread still looks pretty good as of 5AM today.

Moderator just tell me if you dont want a headline for the forum on an event like this.  Thanks... Walt

[Snowlover11]

Advisory for 3 to 5 inches here I don’t see that happening. 

[wdrag]

Regarding the NAM: I've no idea what will replace it or will it have a FOUS?  That said... the NAM is a bit whacked. First it had very little south of I84 min earlier cycles, now its gone ballistic Poconos to BOS.  I've not used this in my personal briefing.

I do add for your interest, something that we can all evaluate with the Wed morning CoCoRaHs data. imo, play the numbers conservative. I do think 1"/hr snowfall rates from just north of KABE into nw NJ tomorrow morning 9A-Noon, then rain or mixed. 

mPing may be of value for NYC.

4AM advisory and watches in purple and blue. Then various model outputs from the 00z/1 cycle. 

 

[wdrag]

Added the NWS snowman that weren't into the 4AM forecasts, and the side bar notes are my opinion.  Will check back at 5P. 

[NEG NAO]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

I've noted the adverse comments on storm interest.  I'll review any MODERATOR impression on value added for this thread. This has been accurately portrayed in advance, I think,  and the thread still looks pretty good as of 5AM today.

Moderator just tell me if you dont want a headline for the forum on an event like this.  Thanks... Walt

I would just stress in the headline the model guidance is not reliable especially past a certain number of hours - if that is the case - so folks won't get false hope - some storms there is no doubt we will end up with snowstorm region wide but these borderline situations have high bust potential regarding precip type especially- I still think there will be busts in the forecast for tomorrow one way or the other in certain areas yet to be determined.

AI overview

Meteorology is called an "inexact science" because the Earth's atmosphere is a massive, complex system that is impossible to measure with complete accuracy, and is governed by principles of chaos theory, making long-term, precise prediction impossible. While the underlying physics and math are precise, the application to predicting weather is limited by factors like incomplete initial data, the sheer scale of the atmosphere, and the amplification of tiny errors over time, a concept known as the "Butterfly Effect". 

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, wdrag said:

I've noted the adverse comments on storm interest.  I'll review any MODERATOR impression on value added for this thread. This has been accurately portrayed in advance, I think,  and the thread still looks pretty good as of 5AM today.

Moderator just tell me if you dont want a headline for the forum on an event like this.  Thanks... Walt

Personally, I think that there should be a headline. Even if NYC, its nearby suburbs, and Long Island won't be getting much, if any, snowfall, parts of the forum will. 

[Tatamy]

3 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

Personally, I think that there should be a headline. Even if NYC, its nearby suburbs, and Long Island won't be getting much, if any, snowfall, parts of the forum will. 

I will add my 2 cents on this topic.  As it looks now this event looks questionable to attain a NESIS rating.  Do we want to consider that as a possible parameter for events of this type going forward?

[jm1220]

It’s fine that there’s a headline. It will be a disruptive storm event for the northern areas of the subforum and it’s the first real winter storm of the season even if for most posters it will be rain. 

[MANDA]

I'm sticking with my forecast of 2-4" for MBY.  Will see where it all shakes out in about 36 hours when all is said and done.  See no reason to change anything based on overnight data.  

[Bxstormwatcher360]

Rooting for the N models,nam and navgem. Both bring snow to nyc in the backend. Interestingly enough,my forecast went from mostly rain to rain and snow for tomm. I do believe we get backend flakes though. 

[wdrag]

Forum moderators may still redefine the headlining thresholds.  Have heard from one. 

I do not hide behind reiterating the obvious variabilities and I don't want to be too wordy.. come to bat...see the ball and give it my best swing at an encompassing useful set of info and go from there.  No one should complain tomorrow if there are any morning delays.  The complaints can be profuse if its overkill and I'll stomach the wrong headline.

All the NWS and non-NWS tools that I know ion were balanced applied. 

We on the forum gave useful days lead time and information on how to consider a disruptive event even if for only a few hours whether air or sfc travel. 

mPing event coming to NYC I think despite the warmer cycles. NYC probably no go on measurable sleet snow due to temps at sunrise near 36. 

CoCoRaHs obs Wed am as well as posters and ASOS/AWOS will answer. 

For now... edge snow snow-sleet-ice just nw of I95.

 

 

 

[Brian5671]

31 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Rooting for the N models,nam and navgem. Both bring snow to nyc in the backend. Interestingly enough,my forecast went from mostly rain to rain and snow for tomm. I do believe we get backend flakes though. 

Back end snow rarely works out.  Don't hang your hat on that.

[Brian5671]

NAMS both moving NW with the snow which is not a surprise in this setup

[WeatherGeek2025]

32 minutes ago, Bxstormwatcher360 said:

Rooting for the N models,nam and navgem. Both bring snow to nyc in the backend. Interestingly enough,my forecast went from mostly rain to rain and snow for tomm. I do believe we get backend flakes though. 

hello there,

 

I don't think they do, not one model shows a flake for NYC! At least not that I seen, maybe i'm wrong!