First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[WinterWolf]

4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Start to worry 

Lol…the NAM IS NOT HAPPENING KEVIN. We are not getting 1.7” of QPF.  But torture yourself if you must. 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, WinterWolf said:

Lol…the NAM IS NOT HAPPENING KEVIN. We are not getting 1.7” of QPF.  But torture yourself if you must. 

You’ve got to factor it in

[SnowGoose69]

Think this is pretty realistic though the RA/SN line may be a tad too close to the coast in Mass...not sure I see all snow on west side of downtown Boston.

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025113018&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=ref1km_ptype&m=rrfs_a#

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Don't you think for one minute that's not in the back of my mind.

Yep. We nervous. 

[dryslot]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Yep. We nervous. 

Pats are due for a trap game.

[Torch Tiger]

1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Think this is pretty realistic though the RA/SN line may be a tad too close to the coast in Mass...not sure I see all snow on west side of downtown Boston.

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025113018&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=ref1km_ptype&m=rrfs_a#

Boston and metro west flips on that run easily

[Fozz]

Looking forward to my first New England snow in 4 years.

I’m in Worcester now 

[moneypitmike]

4 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Looking forward to my first New England snow in 4 years.

I’m in Worcester now 

Welcome back.  You're down in Cockeysville?  My daughter's in Monkton.

[78Blizzard]

5 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Think this is pretty realistic though the RA/SN line may be a tad too close to the coast in Mass...not sure I see all snow on west side of downtown Boston.

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025113018&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=ref1km_ptype&m=rrfs_a#

Again, this model shows 3º C vs -1º C on the Euro at 850 @ 0z Wed for this area.  Would you go with an experimental model or the Euro at this point if you had to make a forecast?

[Fozz]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Welcome back.  You're down in Cockeysville?  My daughter's in Monkton.

I sometimes go back to MD for work, and yeah I grew up in the county.

Monkton is just a few miles up the road.

[HoarfrostHubb]

11 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

Think this is pretty realistic though the RA/SN line may be a tad too close to the coast in Mass...not sure I see all snow on west side of downtown Boston.

 

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?rh=2025113018&fh=loop&dpdt=&mc=&r=us_ne&p=ref1km_ptype&m=rrfs_a#

RFSS?   I’ve never looked at that one

[HoarfrostHubb]

11 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Pats are due for a trap game.

Yeah.  I’ve got a not so great feeling about it.  The Giants might be hitting them at the worst time. 

[Torch Tiger]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

RFSS?   I’ve never looked at that one

RRFS Road Runner Forecast System? meep meep 

 

[SnowGoose69]

1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

RFSS?   I’ve never looked at that one

Its basically replacing the NAM in 2026. though last  I heard the NAM may run for another year or so.  Its much better than the HRRR it seems on ptype in winter events.  The HRRR just is always too cold in the mid-levels.  The biggest negative is no MOS data will be available which sucks as we will now have the GFS MOS and that is all.    

[UnitedWx]

28 minutes ago, weathafella said:

So…for my home location-do I need to contact my neighbor to clear the sidewalk?  Brookline can be dicks and ticket if you don’t clear.  We’re not expecting to be home before Thursday night.  I was thinking at my location it would be mainly slop.

Don't you have 24 hours? That's what most towns are.  And LOL at the name showing 6 to 8 inches in westfield, but none in Simsbury where I'm covering my friend's plow route. Definitely won't happen because I'm really not looking forward to plowing this storm

[eduggs]

ICON and RRFS are south of 12z

[CoastalWx]

Reggie is solid N and W of 128. Not far from RRFS.

[dryslot]

Reggie is 0.68" all snow up here.

[weathafella]

2 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Don't you have 24 hours? That's what most towns are.  And LOL at the name showing 6 to 8 inches in westfield, but none in Simsbury where I'm covering my friend's plow route. Definitely won't happen because I'm really not looking forward to plowing this storm

Yes.  But from a practical standpoint with some almost guaranteed mixing the flash freeze post system might make it very difficult.

[dryslot]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Reggie is solid N and W of 128. Not far from RRFS.

Similar.

[moneypitmike]

My gut is that RGEM may be how things play out.

[Torch Tiger]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Reggie is solid N and W of 128. Not far from RRFS.

Seems reasonable

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, moneypitmike said:

My gut is that RGEM may be how things play out.

Slide that snow line 25-50 miles SE and it’ll be about final 

[Fozz]

2 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

My gut is that RGEM may be how things play out.

I’m getting the sense that if I live in Worcester, I’d like to see BOS and PVD get something measurable.

Otherwise this is way too close to the rain/snow line for comfort.

[moneypitmike]

1 minute ago, Fozz said:

I’m getting the sense that if I live in Worcester, I’d like to see BOS and PVD get something measurable.

Otherwise this is way too close to the rain/snow line for comfort.

Where you are in Worcester can make a big difference.  Airport, e.g., can be way better than the DCU.

[Kitz Craver]

4 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

My gut is that RGEM may be how things play out.

That map just gave me the bubble gut

[moneypitmike]

5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

My gut is that RGEM may be how things play out.

Just realized this map reflects the PWM/BOX/ALY watch areas.