First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[ineedsnow]

23 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z euro kind of looks like 06z GFS. They are pretty close now. 

Still has that other low.. I don't think it moved that much? 

[ineedsnow]

[CoastalWx]

Euro at its height has the 925 0C line from about Ipswich to near Andover to probably nrn border of ORH and surrounding towns. 

[CoastalWx]

A good 50 mile shift from 12z euro yesterday. 

[CoastalWx]

That’s gonna be real close for Ray because it might be a little warmer below 925.

[MarkO]

NWS map going with warmer solution. If it doesn't bomb, it's 2" of slop for me. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

He would lose his shit if it moved N a hair

[CoastalWx]

Love how euro is the warmer model. LOL.

[Torch Tiger]

Looks like crap here. Awt

[HIPPYVALLEY]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

Love how euro is the warmer model. LOL.

[Fozz]

14 minutes ago, MarkO said:

NWS map going with warmer solution. If it doesn't bomb, it's 2" of slop for me. 

I’ll take the over.

[512high]

Lol almost game time and these models can't get a clue....

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, 512high said:

Lol almost game time and these models can't get a clue....

When 1C matters whether you get 8” or a coating, models will struggle. That’s not an easy thing to resolve.

[40/70 Benchmark]

55 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

06z euro kind of looks like 06z GFS. They are pretty close now. 

I think I should have gone 6-9" instead of 4-8" in the general area, and 7-10" instead of 5-10" in the JP band, but oh well....see what happens.

[40/70 Benchmark]

21 minutes ago, MarkO said:

NWS map going with warmer solution. If it doesn't bomb, it's 2" of slop for me. 

If I get 2", I'll show to the GTG on Saturday wearing nothing but a Santa hat.

[40/70 Benchmark]

26 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

That’s gonna be real close for Ray because it might be a little warmer below 925.

It is, but I think what may save me is the lack of wind in this event...no real mechanism to really drive the marine puke up my driveway, but it will be dicey given it's early December with no real antecedent high.

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think I should have gone 6-9" instead of 4-8" in the general area, and 7-10" instead of 5-10" in the JP band, but oh well....see what happens.

06z EURO says I made the right call, though,.

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It is, but I think what may save me is the lack of wind in this event...no real mechanism to really drive the marine puke up my driveway, but it will be dicey given it's early December with no real antecedent high.

I mean like 950 or so. Pretty stout east winds. But you will be close to the CF so the hope is for a Tip ageo north tug there. Which is possible.

[dryslot]

Euro went from the coldest aloft to the warmest aloft.......

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I mean like 950 or so. Pretty stout east winds. But you will be close to the CF so the hope is for a Tip ageo north tug there. Which is possible.

The CF is probably going to bisect Methuen at it's most inland point, which will put me barely on the seaward side. I like Salem, NH out to KASH and down to ORH for a jack.

[BrianW]

[CoastalWx]

Where is Kevin? The MLK fear runs deep.

[Kitz Craver]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Where is Kevin? The MLK fear runs deep.

I mean, this storm never had the ceiling that MLK did

[CoastalWx]

Just now, Kitz Craver said:

I mean, this storm never had the ceiling that MLK did

I mean MLK 2010.

[Snowcrazed71]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t think anything really has changed overnight. The euro ticking warmer wasn’t really a shock. This looks like a 495 north and west kind of deal with area still in question is inside 495 through about Kevin. The nam is out to lunch and zonked so that’s tossed.

I somewhat disagree with you. I know we don't use the n:am model as often, but it is in its range now. And then the GFS has a similar look to the NAM ( just not the crazy amounts the NAM put out ). But the GFS came down more from where it was and now has Connecticut in the zone of more snow. So to me that's a big change.

[dendrite]

7 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Euro went from the coldest aloft to the warmest aloft.......

Shocking, not shocking

[dryslot]

Just now, dendrite said:

Shocking, not shocking

A shell of itself.

[dendrite]

We’re really narrowing those goalposts now. 2-12” for IZG.

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, dryslot said:

A shell of itself.

I think that not only is there more data, but other guidance has closed the gap....so like I said, I don't think the EURO has gotten worse... but it runs more often and other guidance is better. JMO....I don't want to incur the wrath of Wolfie.

[Snowcrazed71]

Just now, dryslot said:

A shell of itself.

Is there one model that has done a good job so far with this event. I would say definitely not. The GFS had most of the snow way north of Southern New England ( well it did have it into into western Mass ). Now that's shifted down quite a bit south and has it down into Connecticut. So you could say they're all a shell of themselves. The new Norm?