Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 On 11/28/2025 at 6:12 PM, Typhoon Tip said: It’ll likely pass thru 2 or 3 cycles selling a NW bias between 24 and 60 hours In principle we may be seeing this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 NAM is useless outside 48 hours, I'm glad it isn't showing a desirable outcome Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: In principle we may be seeing this So we're not looking at a Nam coup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 ICON and rgem are both good for many 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: ICON and rgem are both good for many Crazy gradients around 495 on both models. Rgem looked a little cooler by a smidge. Not that we really care what these models say unless the euro and GFS agree with them at this time range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 Reggie was a little south and stronger. Looked better for interior 495 area to CT border. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 They both get wound up pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 If we could get some of these to pull some NAM deepening south of ACK that would be fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 So were these 00z runs the ones that were expected to have better sampled data? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 Decent shift to a more consolidated low on gfs south of 18z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TalcottWx Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 2 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said: OT but is the east side of Simsbury really low in elevation? I'm surprised you're < 200' I just moved closer to '300, Granby side. I need to update it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 10 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: So were these 00z runs the ones that were expected to have better sampled data? I think so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Decent shift to a more consolidated low on gfs south of 18z Yeah I thought for a minute it was gonna try and NAM further south for the ending but it didn’t quite have enough juice aloft. NAM is still in its own world with that h5 look deepening so fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 Looks like 495 is setting up as the boundary tonight. GFS has west of west of 495/north of the pike very solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 I still am a little leery of this thing suffering some %age to model magnification correction in the short term. Flow’s compressed some. The embedded S/W’s, open and progressive. Those two predominating characteristics tend to foretell lesser production so we’ll see. We seem to have two concurrent hemispheric mode types, which is interesting. Blocking is competing with a velocity anomaly at lower latitudes May have a similar quandary the 6/7th then again out there toward the 10th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: I still am a little leery of this thing suffering some %age to model magnification correction in the short term. Flow’s compressed some. The embedded S/W’s, open and progressive. Those two predominating characteristics tend to foretell lesser production so we’ll see. We seem to have two concurrent hemispheric mode types, which is interesting. Blocking is competing with a velocity anomaly at lower latitudes May have a similar quandary the 6/7th then again out there toward the 10th. Are you saying what I think you're saying? That CC says I should find a new hobby? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 1 hour ago, UnitedWx said: Possibly, as long as you're not talking about the NAM this far out. It's not useful yet If the Euro caves at this time level, I would say it's not useful either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 Canadian is pretty warm. Think the euro fold is coming 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 1 minute ago, H2Otown_WX said: Are you saying what I think you're saying? That CC says I should find a new hobby? Ah not really. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheMainer Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 29 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Looks like 495 is setting up as the boundary tonight. GFS has west of west of 495/north of the pike very solid. This feels very early December 2007 to me and we cleaned up that month, but I still think 3-4 inches is our max here, though I can dream of the 18 inches the NAM dumps on my head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 Jesus, nothing ever comes easy for MBY. This seems more like a December 2000 setup, than a 2007/2008. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 I can't count how many times over the course of the past 7 years that gradient has set up in that spot, like 5 miles n of me in SE NH. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 5 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I can't count how many times over the course of the past 7 years that gradient has set up in that spot, like 5 miles n of me in SE NH. GFS is 100 miles se and its thermals are warmer? Totally cave to Euro evolving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 Euro AI not caving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 Euro looks a touch more amped/consolidated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
78Blizzard Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 13 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Euro looks a touch more amped/consolidated. Looked more than a touch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 2 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said: Looked more than a touch. ah yup... I'm putting that up on the fridge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 Yeah solid stuff all the way to the CT coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 Cory gets his squeeze box crushed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted November 30, 2025 Share Posted November 30, 2025 14 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said: ah yup... I'm putting that up on the fridge. That is a great mid level look up here. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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