First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[Typhoon Tip]

On 11/28/2025 at 6:12 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

It’ll likely pass thru 2 or 3 cycles selling a NW bias between 24 and 60 hours 

In principle we may be seeing this 

[H2Otown_WX]

NAM is useless outside 48 hours, I'm glad it isn't showing a desirable outcome

[Snowcrazed71]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

In principle we may be seeing this 

So we're not looking at a Nam coup

[moneypitmike]

ICON and rgem are both good for many

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

ICON and rgem are both good for many

Crazy gradients around 495 on both models. Rgem looked a little cooler by a smidge. Not that we really care what these models say unless the euro and GFS agree with them at this time range. 

[CoastalWx]

Reggie was a little south and stronger. Looked better for interior 495 area to CT border.

[moneypitmike]

They both get wound up pretty good.

[CoastalWx]

If we could get some of these to pull some NAM deepening south of ACK that would be fun. 

[moneypitmike]

So were these 00z runs the ones that were expected to have better sampled data?

[CoastalWx]

Decent shift to a more consolidated low on gfs south of 18z

[TalcottWx]

2 hours ago, H2Otown_WX said:

OT but is the east side of Simsbury really low in elevation? I'm surprised you're < 200'

I just moved closer to '300, Granby side. I need to update it. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

10 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

So were these 00z runs the ones that were expected to have better sampled data?

I think so. 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Decent shift to a more consolidated low on gfs south of 18z

Yeah I thought for a minute it was gonna try and NAM further south for the ending but it didn’t quite have enough juice aloft. NAM is still in its own world with that h5 look deepening so fast. 

[moneypitmike]

Looks like 495 is setting up as the boundary tonight.

GFS has west of west of 495/north of the pike very solid.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

I still am a little leery of this thing suffering some %age to model magnification correction in the short term. Flow’s compressed some. The embedded S/W’s, open and progressive.  Those two predominating characteristics tend to foretell lesser production so we’ll see. 

We seem to have two concurrent hemispheric mode types, which is interesting. Blocking is competing with a velocity anomaly at lower latitudes 

May have a similar quandary the 6/7th then again out there toward the 10th. 

[H2Otown_WX]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I still am a little leery of this thing suffering some %age to model magnification correction in the short term. Flow’s compressed some. The embedded S/W’s, open and progressive.  Those two predominating characteristics tend to foretell lesser production so we’ll see. 

We seem to have two concurrent hemispheric mode types, which is interesting. Blocking is competing with a velocity anomaly at lower latitudes 

May have a similar quandary the 6/7th then again out there toward the 10th. 

Are you saying what I think you're saying? That CC says I should find a new hobby? 

[78Blizzard]

1 hour ago, UnitedWx said:

Possibly, as long as you're not talking about the NAM this far out. It's not useful yet

If the Euro caves at this time level, I would say it's not useful either.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

Canadian is pretty warm. Think the euro fold is coming

[Typhoon Tip]

1 minute ago, H2Otown_WX said:

Are you saying what I think you're saying? That CC says I should find a new hobby? 

Ah not really. 
 

[TheMainer]

29 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Looks like 495 is setting up as the boundary tonight.

GFS has west of west of 495/north of the pike very solid.

 

This feels very early December 2007 to me and we cleaned up that month, but I still think 3-4 inches is our max here, though I can dream of the 18 inches the NAM dumps on my head. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Jesus, nothing ever comes easy for MBY. This seems more like a December 2000 setup, than a 2007/2008.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I can't count how many times over the course of the past 7 years that gradient has set up in that spot, like 5 miles n of me in SE NH.