First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[Baroclinic Zone]

So we’re 4-5 days out from our first winter storm of the season. Models are pretty consistent in bringing surface low off coast and traversing across the area. Prior to storm we have a cold front that pushes through proving antecedent airmass. This cold unfortunately won’t be locked in place. High pressure while initially in a pretty good spot just north of the area will be retreating allowing warmer air to intrude. Overall a pretty classic storm setup. With storm being so early in the season, areas inland and with elevation will be more favorable for staying on the snowier side while coastal areas will see perhaps an initial burst of snow but transitioning to rain as warmer air intrudes. The storm is pretty juiced up so we could see some seeing 6-10” snow out of this and those on the wet side seeing 0.5-1.0” of rain. Below are the latest 06z EPS and GEFS ensembles showing tracks and 24hr mean QPF.

 

[Ginx snewx]

Let's go 6z Euro is a dumper. Isothermic . Humpy dumpy 

[Modfan2]

And here it is, kiss of death, rains to Maine! 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, Modfan2 said:

And here it is, kiss of death, rains to Maine! 

Or whiff.  

Goalposts set tomorrow, I think it’s most likely a moderate snowstorm for the interior.  I’ll be watching the high to the North and if the models start leaning stronger or weaker system.  Euro AI had me slightly spooked but we’ll see. 

[dryslot]

Quite a few more west members at 12z then 06z on the EPS.

[WxWatcher007]

The thread was posted before the good runs at 12z, so maybe @Baroclinic Zonestill has the juice?

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Quite a few more west members at 12z then 06z on the EPS.

Big cluster converging toward the BM too...

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Big cluster converging toward the BM too...

Yeah, Getting a bit better clustering then 06z, That 12z op run was east of the BM.

[ineedsnow]

FWIW

[dryslot]

Last 3 EPS runs.

[mahk_webstah]

17 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Last 3 EPS runs.

Think this ends up between amped gfs runs and latest EPS?

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

If the euro is right, we snow. If anything else is right, we rain. What could go wrong 

[dryslot]

5 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Think this ends up between amped gfs runs and latest EPS?

It looks to be moving towards the GFS so yeah An inside the BM track looks doable.

[dendrite]

24 minutes ago, dryslot said:

Last 3 EPS runs.

Skynet ens had more zonked members too

[dryslot]

Just now, dendrite said:

Skynet ens had more zonked members too

Yeah, There is some inland tracks on some of these members which leads me to believe that the Euro is probably going to come west some in the next few cycles.

[Ginx snewx]

Increased QPF and stronger inflow colder column what could go wrong Bretty

[Ginx snewx]

4 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It looks to be moving towards the GFS so yeah An inside the BM track looks doable.

Oh how you pray.. can't speculate on what later runs will show but solid dumping for many seems a lock.

[ineedsnow]

nice to see the AIFS ENS come west

[Ginx snewx]

14 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

If the euro is right, we snow. If anything else is right, we rain. What could go wrong 

Totally wrong . 12Z was uniformly better sans GFS

[mahk_webstah]

12 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It looks to be moving towards the GFS so yeah An inside the BM track looks doable.

You’ve already had a mini start up there, but this will be a great start for many of. It comes true because it looks cold for a while.

[mahk_webstah]

13 minutes ago, dryslot said:

It looks to be moving towards the GFS so yeah An inside the BM track looks doable.

When you put it in the context of what the other models are showing, it would make sense that it would end up there.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Totally wrong . 12Z was uniformly better sans GFS

True… Canadian may have done the job here, it was close.

[dryslot]

4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

You’ve already had a mini start up there, but this will be a great start for many of. It comes true because it looks cold for a while.

A coating so far, But Western Maine is off to a good start, Dec looks cold as you say and it looks active too so there will be more snow chances going forward.

2 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

When you put it in the context of what the other models are showing, it would make sense that it would end up there.

GFS over the cape, Euro just outside the BM, Not a tough call really once they converge.

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Totally wrong . 12Z was uniformly better sans GFS

Brett ends up in a jackpot lol..watch. Guy will meh himself to a foot. 

[Ginx snewx]

3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Brett ends up in a jackpot lol..watch. Guy will meh himself to a foot. 

Very marginal in Eastern areas probably a game time now cast.Maybe with a Messenger shuffle screwing the rain casts?

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Very marginal in Eastern areas probably a game time now cast.Maybe with a Messenger shuffle screwing the rain casts?

SE areas will need big time rates to get more than advisory snows I'm thinking. So it's a tough needle to thread....on one hand, you want a colder/SE solution, but on the other, you still need those big rates. Best way to get it is probably push that initial cold front a little further south but also keep the shortwave fairly potent, so you get both. 

[Ginx snewx]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

SE areas will need big time rates to get more than advisory snows I'm thinking. So it's a tough needle to thread....on one hand, you want a colder/SE solution, but on the other, you still need those big rates. Best way to get it is probably push that initial cold front a little further south but also keep the shortwave fairly potent, so you get both. 

Some seem to think getting a perfect setup in early Dec is the way it should be. In fact there is a  reason most of us average under 4 inches up to Dec 15th, although the  3rd to 5th seems to be a special period in good years.

[dryslot]

muthafukkers!

KLEW   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE  11/28/2025  1200 UTC                       
 FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
      SAT 29| SUN 30| MON 01| TUE 02| WED 03| THU 04| FRI 05|SAT CLIMO
 N/X  22  38| 20  39| 29  32| 14  32| 23  36| 12  37|  1  28| 11 23 38
 TMP  26  28| 24  37| 29  22| 19  29| 25  28| 14  26|  3  20| 14      
 DPT  16  16| 20  34| 19  10| 16  26| 19  19|  7  12| -4   9| 10      
 CLD  PC  PC| PC  OV| OV  CL| OV  OV| OV  PC| OV  PC| CL  CL| PC      
 WND  11  15|  5   9| 14  17|  4  14| 21  13|  6  14|  8   7|  4      
 P12   5   5|  0  86| 60   8| 14  79| 76  14| 13  23| 14  12| 18999999
 P24       6|     87|     63|     80|     76|     23|     23|      999
 Q12   0   0|  0   2|  1   0|  0   4|  5   0|  0   0|       |         
 Q24       0|      2|      1|      4|      5|      0|       |         
 T12   0   0|  0   1|  2   1|  0   1|  1   0|  0   1|  0   0|  0      
 T24        |  0    |  3    |  1    |  1    |  1    |  2    |  0      
 PZP   2   0|  4   1|  1   1|  7   7| 13   6|  9   7|  8   6| 10      
 PSN  92  93| 92  45| 32  92| 87  67| 53  67| 72  61| 80  76| 67      
 PRS   4   2|  2  24| 35   4|  1  11| 13  12|  5   8|  4   3|  5      
 TYP   S   S|  S  RS| RS   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S   S|  S      
 SNW       0|      1|      0|      6|      1|      0|       |

[moneypitmike]

1 hour ago, dryslot said:

It looks to be moving towards the GFS so yeah An inside the BM track looks doable.

That would work.

We should be close to that rogue EC run that looks to end the world and then "returns to the regular program, already in progress."

[ORH_wxman]

18 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Will,

18z NAM really driving your -10 Mendoza line pretty far offshore 

Looks like it's hung up in CNE at 72h....18z Mon....we really want that further south for maintaining snow down to BOS to MMK line unless the mechanics of this change a bit. One of the things that happens if you drive the height field lower over us prior to that approaching shortwave, is that it creates more confluence when that shortwave approaches. We saw a bit of this on some prior runs a few days ago when that high was kind of sticking near CAR longer before finally retreating....I made the comment that some areas could get a good front-ender even if it flipped. The trend has been away from that for several cycles now, but if it trended even a little back toward that, it would make a huge difference....particularly for people closer to the coast and further south. I don't think it's a big deal over the deeper interior.