First Winter Storm to kickoff 2025-26 Winter season

[Baroclinic Zone]

So we’re 4-5 days out from our first winter storm of the season. Models are pretty consistent in bringing surface low off coast and traversing across the area. Prior to storm we have a cold front that pushes through proving antecedent airmass. This cold unfortunately won’t be locked in place. High pressure while initially in a pretty good spot just north of the area will be retreating allowing warmer air to intrude. Overall a pretty classic storm setup. With storm being so early in the season, areas inland and with elevation will be more favorable for staying on the snowier side while coastal areas will see perhaps an initial burst of snow but transitioning to rain as warmer air intrudes. The storm is pretty juiced up so we could see some seeing 6-10” snow out of this and those on the wet side seeing 0.5-1.0” of rain. Below are the latest 06z EPS and GEFS ensembles showing tracks and 24hr mean QPF.

 

[Ginx snewx]

Let's go 6z Euro is a dumper. Isothermic . Humpy dumpy 

[Modfan2]

And here it is, kiss of death, rains to Maine! 

[HIPPYVALLEY]

1 minute ago, Modfan2 said:

And here it is, kiss of death, rains to Maine! 

Or whiff.  

Goalposts set tomorrow, I think it’s most likely a moderate snowstorm for the interior.  I’ll be watching the high to the North and if the models start leaning stronger or weaker system.  Euro AI had me slightly spooked but we’ll see.