Winter 2025-26 Medium/Long Range Discussion

[cmillzz]

20 minutes ago, DocATL said:

AI Euro is looney toons. GEFS also. Sigh.

AI GFS wasn’t terrible, and funnily enough it’s been one of the more consistent models. Seems to be fairly good at picking up long range pattern changes.

[michsnowfreak]

39 minutes ago, DocATL said:

AI Euro is looney toons. GEFS also. Sigh.

AI Euro has done decent this winter. But get ready for plenty of model waffling this week.

[A-L-E-K]

ready for a palm crusher

[DocATL]

GFS is pretty reserved and feels correct. Bigger storms to our north.

[cyclone77]

Yeah winter (afa snow) died back on Dec 8th for this area.  Next meaningful snow 8+ months away.

MLI now 11.5 inches down below avg.

[RemoteSenses]

Still holding out hope for one more “snowstorm” that surely will melt the next day. Not holding my breath.

[A-L-E-K]

26 minutes ago, cyclone77 said:

Yeah winter (afa snow) died back on Dec 8th for this area.  Next meaningful snow 8+ months away.

MLI now 11.5 inches down below avg.

wheels really fell off and climo definitely not on our side at this point

just chasing qpf at this point

[Baum]

4 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

wheels really fell off and climo definitely not on our side at this point

just chasing qpf at this point

Probably means he’ll get a foot of clay a week from now

[beavis1729]

Does anyone have access to ensembles for the potential storm, either the individual members or the mean/median?

The op runs are all over the place, even more so than usual.

[A-L-E-K]

not sure which potential storm you're referencing comrade 

[Chicago Storm]

bump.

 

[beavis1729]

51 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

not sure which potential storm you're referencing comrade 

Fair question - should have been clearer. I'm talking snow totals over the next 10-15 days, regardless of the individual storm threats.

I saw some ensemble info in the TN sub-forum a few days ago, showing some big dogs for our area. Of course, that's good and bad...bad because the ensemble mean can be skewed by a couple of outliers. 6z GEFS from 3/7:

 

[TheClimateChanger]

Record highs set at Chicago & Rockford today.

[Chicago Storm]

23 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Fair question - should have been clearer. I'm talking snow totals over the next 10-15 days, regardless of the individual storm threats.

I saw some ensemble info in the TN sub-forum a few days ago, showing some big dogs for our area. Of course, that's good and bad...bad because the ensemble mean can be skewed by a couple of outliers. 6z GEFS from 3/7:

there's still a good spread, but a majority are a quality hit along/north of the border currently.