Nov 28-30th Post Turkey Day Wintry Potential

[WxMatt21]

1 hour ago, IWXwx said:

@Jackstraw Euro is doin' its thing to us.

A bit strange to see such a dramatic reversal - it's on an island at this point. Even the ensemble isn't quite so drastic with the cut off. 

If some of the hi res guidance suggested something like this I would start getting concerned, but after seeing the 12z GFS/HRRR, as well as the 15z RAP, I don't think this run was the start of an overall trend. Crossing fingers 

[Radtechwxman]

1 hour ago, fluoronium said:

I worry about mixing too. Winds will have a southerly component here for the whole event and the low tracks to our NW. Even in January, that gives a rainer almost every time. We should at least get a good hit near the start though. 

Yeah the early morning through mid to possibly late afternoon look good here. Probably several hours of solid rates. But I would be shocked with a low track that north if we dont mix or switchover at some point. But good thing is here looks to happen towards end of the event when most of our accumulation is done already. This system doesn't have much of a deformation zone. 

[IWXwx]

12 minutes ago, WxMatt21 said:

A bit strange to see such a dramatic reversal - it's on an island at this point. Even the ensemble isn't quite so drastic with the cut off. 

If some of the hi res guidance suggested something like this I would start getting concerned, but after seeing the 12z GFS/HRRR, as well as the 15z RAP, I don't think this run was the start of an overall trend. Crossing fingers 

Crossing my fingers too. I saw your call and if it is onto something, you might have to bring your totals down a little, especially to the south and I would that for you (and me lol). But at least you have warned the public about possible last minute changes since we are riding the edge. So far IWX and you are in pretty good agreement though.

[SchaumburgStormer]

For old times sake, SREF plume has me at 9.5” with a number of higher members and nothing below 7”. Locked in. 

[hawkeye_wx]

12z Euro... doesn't get much better for Iowa.