December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[aldie 22]

Lol I predict the euro will show 70 for Friday 

[T. August]

Canadian still sucked, but Gefs with a huge shift south. Colder and better precip orientation. 

[Ji]

if 850s are that cold...i would suspect....when the precip is heavy even down here we could see snow and sleet mix

[soadforecasterx]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

if 850s are that cold...i would suspect....when the precip is heavy even down here we could see snow and sleet mix

 

look like the warm is closer to the 700 level. can you pull that from weatherbell?

[Eskimo Joe]

Merry Christmas from 1993

 

[Eskimo Joe]

12z GEFS now trying to pop a ridge over the Alaska/Canada border by the end of the week.

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Merry Christmas from 1993

 

Horrendously disappointing winter. 

[Eskimo Joe]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Horrendously disappointing winter. 

The 1994 ice storms in Philly were great.

[Ji]

look like the warm is closer to the 700 level. can you pull that from weatherbell?

Well that map said zero. Didn’t pull
The graph

[mitchnick]

7 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

The 1994 ice storms in Philly were great.

Me no likey icey.

[soadforecasterx]

This seems to be the warmest point at the 700 level. You seem to be correct @Ji as long as you have good rates should be snow. 

[mitchnick]

Euro AI. We're getting there.

[bncho]

we can’t do snow or shut the blinds anymore so we turn into sleet/ice lol

[TSSN+]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Euro AI. We're getting there.

Regular euro says nah just ice 

[dailylurker]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Regular euro says nah just ice 

It looks to me like it says naa, here's a few rain showers. Enjoy the drought lol

[mappy]

There’s a dedicated thread for Friday 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[Lowershoresadness]

1 hour ago, TSSN+ said:

Ok then gfs lol

 

salisbury getting tea bagged?

[TSSN+]

9 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

It looks to me like it says naa, here's a few rain showers. Enjoy the drought lol

Not sure what your looking at but shows .25-.50” Qpf as frozen for northern Md 

[Ephesians2]

PDO looks much improved from the fall. 

[winter_warlock]

28 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

It looks to me like it says naa, here's a few rain showers. Enjoy the drought lol

Huh?? Looks like frozen for me in North Central md

[dailylurker]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

Huh?? Looks like frozen for me in North Central md

I live in the lowlands. Not the MD line lol

[winter_warlock]

Just now, dailylurker said:

I live in the lowlands. Not the MD line lol

Ohh ok ...well I'm in Baltimore county, not exactly md line but still birth central md

[H2O]

21 minutes ago, Lowershoresadness said:

salisbury getting tea bagged?

Too much sag given how cold it will be

[Eskimo Joe]

Webb caving

 

 

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

if 850s are that cold...i would suspect....when the precip is heavy even down here we could see snow and sleet mix

This will gradually evolve toward more snow.  That nw to se alignment is indicative of a high being east of Maine like the other moderate  snow maker we had.   I’m thinking that high will be more over Maine. The low then is more  along TN/KY line and further enough south to not let warm air override us so much 

[Scraff]

Here’s the latest Untappd snow forecast model. Hop Saturated Snow for the win! 

[CAPE]

2 hours ago, T. August said:

Canadian still sucked, but Gefs with a huge shift south. Colder and better precip orientation. 

GFS is all alone among the globals as far as sleet/snow goes in the majority of our region. Freezing rain? No interest.

[SnowenOutThere]

Geez I apparently need to take more breaks from this place! I come back and everyone's saying how we are looking good. I generally agree, though I'm not great at reading the long range pattern it seems good, or at the very least not a shit the blinds pattern at all. Even way out in la la land that we should have decent enough cold air thanks to a workable upper air pattern. Of course, its all very northern stream dominated and we generally appear maybe a bit too far south but considering the crazy trends we've seen so far this year who knows! 

[JenkinsJinkies]

It can torch all it wants in April. 80-85 in the first week? Sign me up. 70s this time of year? Them’s fighting words!