December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ji]

Euro stays 30 or lower for Leesburg all of Friday

[H2O]

I generally keep my dumb thoughts to myself(cause I’m more wrong than right) but this is why I kept stressing a -NAO and have it more west based. Think of it like a wreck on the beltway before the 270 split. Only after you see how bad the wreck is will you then find out how bad traffic snarls and jams up. You gotta get the block first. Then let it jam up the flow. NAO or AO too far east lets too much traffic find other ways to escape.  

This storm might not be it. But if it helps keep things jammed then look for the next one. 

[NorthArlington101]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro stays 30 or lower for Leesburg all of Friday

Def a tick south and colder makes it a respectable ice storm. Would be a wintry day at least 

[Heisy]

Noticed this a few times this year, think it’s some glitch, error, or something. Look at this precip output, ridiculous.




.

[Ji]

Noticed this a few times this year, think it’s some glitch, error, or something. Look at this precip output, ridiculous.




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Maybe it’s the higher res or the euro ?

[Ji]

The GFS has quite a climactic ending.

The upper level looked way better than the surface storm

[mitchnick]

31 minutes ago, H2O said:

I generally keep my dumb thoughts to myself(cause I’m more wrong than right) but this is why I kept stressing a -NAO and have it more west based. Think of it like a wreck on the beltway before the 270 split. Only after you see how bad the wreck is will you then find out how bad traffic snarls and jams up. You gotta get the block first. Then let it jam up the flow. NAO or AO too far east lets too much traffic find other ways to escape.  

This storm might not be it. But if it helps keep things jammed then look for the next one. 

Quit trying to excite Weather Will like that.

[mitchnick]

12z Eps snowfall on top and 18z below. I see movement south. Subtle, but it's there.

[clskinsfan]

Happy hour weenie run. What torch? Looks like the models are going to ruin another Christmas day with my family.

[WxUSAF]

The back doorings will continue until morale improves 

 

[WxWatcher007]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

The back doorings will continue until morale improves 

 

It’s been a constant theme for quite some time now. Let’s keep it going. 

[TSSN+]

Icon is colder and icier 

[JakkelWx]

20 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s been a constant theme for quite some time now. Let’s keep it going. 

Yep, and then it'll backdoor again in spring for weeks on end.

[TSSN+]

Gfs is nasty icy for northern tier 

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Gfs is nasty icy for northern tier 

Did get little warmer than last run though. 

[Ji]

Terrible run . No precip

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Ji said:

Terrible run . No precip

pretty snowy for NYC though. If it wasn’t a holiday it might be a good week to go 

[Ji]

We always get the wrong trend. Can’t even get precip

[jayyy]

“I’ll take the under on it being 70 degrees on Christmas” - me to Ji a week ago

Forecasted high of 46 on Christmas and a chance of wintry mix the day after with a high of 37

So much for a torch. Models look to be converging on the idea of possible winter revival by 1/5.. but we’ll see how that all looks a few days from now.

One thing is for sure - models are struggling past D10. Just have to be patient and see how things unfold this winter. Posting “weeklies” and 384hr OP runs every 6 hours is pointless. Save yourself the headache.

[ravensrule]

5 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

The back doorings will continue until morale improves 

 

You rang. 

[Herb@MAWS]

From NCEP Tuesday morning’s extended forecast discussion for 12/26-12/30. Note the word “now” picks up on colder trends. 
 

“THE COLDER NORTHERN TIER MAY SEE PLOWABLE SNOW CHANCES FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AND NOW MORE BROADLY ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND INTO THE NORTHERN MID-ATLANTIC AS SHORTWAVES AND FRONTAL SYSTEMS PASS THROUGH.”

[mappy]

6 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

Gfs is nasty icy for northern tier 

06z is about the same 

[Ji]

Depression setting in. Can’t even get a fantasy storm to show up

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

Depression setting in. Can’t even get a fantasy storm to show up

Keep in mind that the models have been horrendous in the 4+ day range, so it's hard to believe anything beyond 48hrs imho, good or bad. So even if  1 or 2 showed a storm beyond 4 days, chances are it's a lie.

[dailylurker]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

Depression setting in. Can’t even get a fantasy storm to show up

It seems drought is the base state this season. Forget snow. We need anything at this point. 

[Ji]

Not sure who deleted my maps @mappy but euro showed a pretty dirty wintry mix event

[mitchnick]

6z Euro went the wrong way for Friday. Yesterday's 6z Gfs is looking like a blip. I just hope we can skip the zr and ip. Nothing exciting about spending Christmas weekend day inside.

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6z Euro went the wrong way for Friday. Yesterday's 6z Gfs is looking like a blip. I just hope we can skip the zr and ip. Nothing exciting about spending Christmas weekend day inside.

Snow looks unlikely. Ice looking like a good bet. 

[Ji]

6z Euro went the wrong way for Friday. Yesterday's 6z Gfs is looking like a blip. I just hope we can skip the zr and ip. Nothing exciting about spending Christmas weekend day inside.

It starts too late so it dosent take advantage of colder air aloft

Euro never snowed for you anyway

Everyone jinxed it with the congrats Bob chill bs

[ravensrule]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6z Euro went the wrong way for Friday. Yesterday's 6z Gfs is looking like a blip. I just hope we can skip the zr and ip. Nothing exciting about spending Christmas weekend day inside.

I completely disagree, any real winter weather weenie would take any frozen precip. I’m in for a crippling ice storm that knocks out power for a week.