December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ji]

Always interesting tweets from the British weenies. Did it get cold in January 77?

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Always interesting tweets from the British weenies. Did it get cold in January 77?

Seeing as one of those January days had a low of -2...yep, sounds like it, lol Ya had only 4 days the entire month get to 40 degrees! Snowfall, on the other hand...was 8.5"...and we only measured a trace for the rest of the season. Oof...and seeing as the next year was a Niño, I wonder if 1976-77 was indeed a dying nina like this one seems to be. Rather paltry results in the snowfall department...and February torched as you'd expect, lol

Anybody got what they indices (AO/NAO/PNA) were that winter?

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Always interesting tweets from the British weenies. Did it get cold in January 77?

Would be real nice is this verified lol

[winter_warlock]

6 hours ago, Ji said:

it actually looks like a ridge lol

Yes I know.  Was a poor attempt at humor lol

[winter_warlock]

4 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

2" - 4" for Christmas would be solid 

I'd take an inch for Christmas. That would be cool!!

[bncho]

I had a mental breakdown trying to understand the 0z Euro.

[mitchnick]

3 hours ago, bncho said:

I had a mental breakdown trying to understand the 0z Euro.

In a word...blocking. See JI's post above.

[mitchnick]

0z AIGFS has 2 snow threats. One starting at 210hrs:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=aigfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025121800&fh=210

The other threat starting at 288hrs:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=aigfs&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn&runtime=2025121800&fh=288

Unfortunately, neither Tropical Tidbits nor Pivotal have pretty surface maps showing snow, only precip. But if you use those TT links and look at Pivotal 850, 925 and surface temps, it's snow, or rain to snow depending on exact location.

[snowfan]

GFS showing some mixed precip possible for the northers heading into Christmas Day. 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, snowfan said:

GFS showing some mixed precip possible for the northers heading into Christmas Day. 

Just gunna' post that the 6z Gfs has a couple of threats and the run hasn't ended. I think as the operational models detect that block, we'll start to see threats showing up along the cold air boundary. 

[mitchnick]

6z Gfs at 318hrs is best case scenario with this pattern. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

15 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Just gunna' post that the 6z Gfs has a couple of threats and the run hasn't ended. I think as the operational models detect that block, we'll start to see threats showing up along the cold air boundary. 

Something has been brewing on all the LR ops between Dec 28-Jan 2 period for a few days now as blocking gets going. Sniffing something out.

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6z Gfs at 318hrs is best case scenario with this pattern. 

NW US trof gets some help from the East-based -NAO. As you said, without any sort of a block we would be toast with that PAC look.

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6z Gfs at 318hrs is best case scenario with this pattern. 

 

[brooklynwx99]

can’t say this isn’t becoming a bit more interesting. can see the ridge axis go from the OH Valley -> Plains as the -NAO cranks 

if you get that Pacific trough to retro a bit and allow the ridge axis to sit more near Montana, you reach a bit of an inflection point and you have legit coastal potential. we’ll see