December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[rjvanals]

Euro Weeklies unfortunately don’t look great today 

[Eskimo Joe]

28 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Eps fwiw

Looks like a parting kiss-off by winter. Shame lr maps looking like just that. We'll see.

Yea, long range isn't looking great. Really hope we don't flip to Pacific Puke for the rest of the winter after a false start.

[winter_warlock]

13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea, long range isn't looking great. Really hope we don't flip to Pacific Puke for the rest of the winter after a false start.

 Yuk don't want any pacific crap!!!

[Jebman]

8 hours ago, TowsonWeather said:

 

I love the Euro. No matter what.

But, Mid Atlantic is gonna get NAM'MED and shellacked.

[Jebman]

12 hours ago, kristia said:

Mele Kalikimaka

LMAO. Hawaiian weather in dca for Xmas.

Late dad born in Hawaii, we always said mele kalikimaka first thing Xmas morning after we got up. I'll never forget that...

[Blizzard of 93]

6 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Euro operational has cold returning with a vengeance the 26th. Eps? Naso much.

The 30 day temperature anomaly on today’s Euro Weeklies is near normal for the period from late December into late January for this region.

Hopefully we have chances for Winter storms with near normal being good enough in January.

[JenkinsJinkies]

Given all the warmups so far being can kicked, what is making this time different in regards to the sentiment I’ve been seeing?

[cbmclean]

16 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Given all the warmups so far being can kicked, what is making this time different in regards to the sentiment I’ve been seeing?

Staying power.  The changes that lead to the warmth are already in process early next week.  That's close enough for confidence.

[JenkinsJinkies]

18 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Staying power.  The changes that lead to the warmth are already in process early next week.  That's close enough for confidence.

Now the question is will this be one of those warmups where it shows 70+ highs 2 weeks out but winds up getting walked back to the 50s once it's in range?

[Terpeast]

19 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Now the question is will this be one of those warmups where it shows 70+ highs 2 weeks out but winds up getting walked back to the 50s once it's in range?

Or just one day of 70 before strong fropa, succeeding a week of 50s

[JenkinsJinkies]

Gleaming what I saw from Eric Webb's latest tweets things get more favorable right after New Years, is there any possibility this is one of those hostile patterns that entrench themselves in a way where it takes ~3 weeks to undo the damage to snow prospects?

It just seems that if the metros can score 2-3" of cumulative snowfall in the first half of December then statistically we shouldn't be facing a potential dead ratter rest of the season.

[Ralph Wiggum]

21 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

 

It just seems that if the metros can score 2-3" of cumulative snowfall in the first half of December then statistically we shouldn't be facing a potential dead ratter rest of the season.

You are now obligated to change your name to Jenkins Jinxes when this actually happens.

[Weather Will]

Will be watching the PNA the next couple of weeks to see how long our warmup lasts starting later next week. As long as PNA stays near -3 standard deviation then it is very hard for it to be cold enough to snow at our latitude no matter what the other signals show.

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

Will be watching the PNA the next couple of weeks to see how long our warmup lasts starting later next week. As long as PNA stays near -3 standard deviation then it is very hard for it to be cold enough to snow at our latitude no matter what the other signals show.

Looks like the back half of December is written off then.

[mitchnick]

47 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Looks like the back half of December is written off then.

Exactly why I made my post in the other thread saying models showed nothing positive for weeks to come that you weenied me. Lol

[Chris78]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Exactly why I made my post in the other thread saying models showed nothing positive for weeks to come that you weenied me. Lol

The last few weeks any posts that describe a model run as being a negative to our snow chances gets weenied.

I think it's an odd lack of reality for some.

[JenkinsJinkies]

31 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Exactly why I made my post in the other thread saying models showed nothing positive for weeks to come that you weenied me. Lol

That was before the widespread sentiment shifted to this one having legs.
 

22 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

The last few weeks any posts that describe a model run as being a negative to our snow chances gets weenied.

I think it's an odd lack of reality for some.

In fairness every bad pattern thus far got can kicked, it was quite recently when this upcoming one showed to be legit.

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

That was before the widespread sentiment shifted to this one having legs.
 

In fairness every bad pattern thus far got can kicked, it was quite recently when this upcoming one showed to been legit.

In fairness, I  made the post a few hours ago when Euro weeklies have shown it for days and all 0z modeling, including ensembles, we're out. Lol

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

we're out. Lol

Until a week or so after new years if the sentiment is anything to go by. The cold air is on this side of the hemisphere this year.

[Stormchaserchuck1]

What's Christmas without a 570dm ridge overhead?

[Chris78]

31 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

That was before the widespread sentiment shifted to this one having legs.
 

In fairness every bad pattern thus far got can kicked, it was quite recently when this upcoming one showed to be legit.

This warm up has been modeled for a atleast a week now and has universal support from all ensembles. 

Not sure why posting about what the models show long term would be weenieish lol

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

What's Christmas without a 570dm ridge overhead?

What is the Cascades Alex!?

[Weather Will]

WB latest weeklies.....as we go through January it looks better....showing roughly 3rd week.

[dailylurker]

11 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

This warm up has been modeled for a atleast a week now and has universal support from all ensembles. 

Not sure why posting about what the models show long term would be weenieish lol

Is it me or does it seem like models can sniff out a warm period from weeks away and they never seem deviate. A modeled cold period can go poof in one random run. 

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB latest weeklies.....as we go through January it looks better....showing roughly 3rd week.

So just 5 weeks to get through? 

[Benjamn3]

51 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

What's Christmas without a 570dm ridge overhead?

Disgusting. Hoping for a Xmas miracle. 

[Ephesians2]

58 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

What's Christmas without a 570dm ridge overhead?

Might be controversial, but I'd rather have this than cold without snow 

[Siberian-Snowcover-Myth]

The upcoming Xmas Warmth is reminiscent of December 2015. 70degree temps in central Va for numerous days. Dominant WAR….Then the following month January 23rd, we received 18” from Winter Storm “Jonas”. So there’s always hope!

[mitchnick]

39 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

Might be controversial, but I'd rather have this than cold without snow 

Definitely cheaper 

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, Siberian-Snowcover-Myth said:

The upcoming Xmas Warmth is reminiscent of December 2015. 70degree temps in central Va for numerous days. Dominant WAR….Then the following month January 23rd, we received 18” from Winter Storm “Jonas”. So there’s always hope!

It’s weird, 70s in December is usually a blip but if it’s 70s in January then it’s a harbinger of a dead ratter.