December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[rjvanals]

Euro Weeklies unfortunately don’t look great today 

[Eskimo Joe]

28 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Eps fwiw

Looks like a parting kiss-off by winter. Shame lr maps looking like just that. We'll see.

Yea, long range isn't looking great. Really hope we don't flip to Pacific Puke for the rest of the winter after a false start.

[winter_warlock]

13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea, long range isn't looking great. Really hope we don't flip to Pacific Puke for the rest of the winter after a false start.

 Yuk don't want any pacific crap!!!

[Jebman]

8 hours ago, TowsonWeather said:

 

I love the Euro. No matter what.

But, Mid Atlantic is gonna get NAM'MED and shellacked.

[Jebman]

12 hours ago, kristia said:

Mele Kalikimaka

LMAO. Hawaiian weather in dca for Xmas.

Late dad born in Hawaii, we always said mele kalikimaka first thing Xmas morning after we got up. I'll never forget that...

[Blizzard of 93]

6 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Euro operational has cold returning with a vengeance the 26th. Eps? Naso much.

The 30 day temperature anomaly on today’s Euro Weeklies is near normal for the period from late December into late January for this region.

Hopefully we have chances for Winter storms with near normal being good enough in January.

[JenkinsJinkies]

Given all the warmups so far being can kicked, what is making this time different in regards to the sentiment I’ve been seeing?

[cbmclean]

16 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Given all the warmups so far being can kicked, what is making this time different in regards to the sentiment I’ve been seeing?

Staying power.  The changes that lead to the warmth are already in process early next week.  That's close enough for confidence.

[JenkinsJinkies]

18 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Staying power.  The changes that lead to the warmth are already in process early next week.  That's close enough for confidence.

Now the question is will this be one of those warmups where it shows 70+ highs 2 weeks out but winds up getting walked back to the 50s once it's in range?

[Terpeast]

19 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Now the question is will this be one of those warmups where it shows 70+ highs 2 weeks out but winds up getting walked back to the 50s once it's in range?

Or just one day of 70 before strong fropa, succeeding a week of 50s

[JenkinsJinkies]

Gleaming what I saw from Eric Webb's latest tweets things get more favorable right after New Years, is there any possibility this is one of those hostile patterns that entrench themselves in a way where it takes ~3 weeks to undo the damage to snow prospects?

It just seems that if the metros can score 2-3" of cumulative snowfall in the first half of December then statistically we shouldn't be facing a potential dead ratter rest of the season.

[Ralph Wiggum]

21 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

 

It just seems that if the metros can score 2-3" of cumulative snowfall in the first half of December then statistically we shouldn't be facing a potential dead ratter rest of the season.

You are now obligated to change your name to Jenkins Jinxes when this actually happens.

[Weather Will]

Will be watching the PNA the next couple of weeks to see how long our warmup lasts starting later next week. As long as PNA stays near -3 standard deviation then it is very hard for it to be cold enough to snow at our latitude no matter what the other signals show.