Ralph Wiggum Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said: MERRY CHRISTMAS CHARLIE BROWN! You talking to Ji or @Maestrobjwa ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 12z Euro loses Friday but has the weekend event. 1-3", more up north 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: You talking to Ji or @Maestrobjwa ? Instigating clutters the thread too, you know...if that be the standard. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago the Euro AI digs the northern stream south and west....very nice sunday snowstorm for us. 4-6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 9 minutes ago, T. August said: 12z euro a dud for Friday. Tragic i think you may want it to be a dud if you want Sunday which has more potential to have a chance 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago Bases on the euro’s depiction, it’s pretty clear how only 1 of the 2 can really work out. The shortwaves are just close together. So a stronger Sunday shortwave prevents Friday from amplifying. Confluence on 12z is actually better than 0z for Friday. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago 7 minutes ago, bncho said: 12z Euro loses Friday but has the weekend event. 1-3", more up north I'll take the Friday night flizzard and the fact that it has a sort of similar idea as the AIFS for Sunday as a win for now. I'm more interested in Sunday but don't think either window is close to dead though not sure both can work out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 2 hours ago Share Posted 2 hours ago GFS and Euro couldnt look more different for Christmas Eve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 6 minutes ago, Ji said: GFS and Euro couldnt look more different for Christmas Eve Two different operational runs two weeks out. What do you expect? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, bncho said: Two different operational runs two weeks out. What do you expect? not a 50 degree difference in temps 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 50 minutes ago, LP08 said: Totally un-scientific but this year, with the amount of cold built up in Canada (SE especially), is just totally different than years past. I remember we would get good tracks with Highs in the right spots but it would be 31 degrees in Toronto and would do us no good. I'd be willing to go out on a limb and say we get a region wide "good" one this year. I don't disagree with this statement. As you said, in previous year Canada would be torched October and November, so there's no snow pack come winter. Even a 1035 mb high over Quebec would yield us 33 and white rain. This year, it just seems like the cold air is much closer. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, Ji said: not a 50 degree difference in temps One of the models is showing 100?? 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, Ji said: not a 50 degree difference in temps Gefs is starting to pick up on a building -nao and lower heights in the east so now ensembles are diverging too. Seasonal trend is muted lr warmth and blocking has been friendly since beginning of Nov. My gut says the gfs/gefs is probably on the right track. Timing is tricky because we're so used to adding 5 days when flipping warmish to coldish but there's a case to make for a quick transition. Interesting period imo 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 19 minutes ago, Ji said: GFS and Euro couldnt look more different for Christmas Eve Well considering Christmas Eve is 16 days away. I'm sure those models will change 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago AIFS ens have both threats - not sure right now if any of the members hit both, but late Friday clipper and Sunday more substantial storm. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: AIFS has both threats - not sure right now if any of the members hit both, but late Friday clipper and Sunday more substantial storm. Should we try and trade one in for the other? That always works out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Gefs is starting to pick up on a building -nao and lower heights in the east so now ensembles are diverging too. Seasonal trend is muted lr warmth and blocking has been friendly since beginning of Nov. My gut says the gfs/gefs is probably on the right track. Timing is tricky because we're so used to adding 5 days when flipping warmish to coldish but there's a case to make for a quick transition. Interesting period imo but what about the 10 foot wide area of destructive interference over the maritime continent? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 26 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: AIFS ens have both threats - not sure right now if any of the members hit both, but late Friday clipper and Sunday more substantial storm. EPS is similar - just less interested in both. But still appearing on the means. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted 48 minutes ago Share Posted 48 minutes ago 50 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: AIFS ens have both threats - not sure right now if any of the members hit both, but late Friday clipper and Sunday more substantial storm. That’s exactly how we roll in a normal winter. Clipper light 1-3” event followed by coastal storm development 4” or more! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted 46 minutes ago Share Posted 46 minutes ago 46 minutes ago, Scraff said: Should we try and trade one in for the other? That always works out! No because the Sunday system is needed to bring the cold and set up the baroclinic zone for coastal storm development. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted 39 minutes ago Share Posted 39 minutes ago 4 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: No because the Sunday system is needed to bring the cold and set up the baroclinic zone for coastal storm development. Hear that! At this point, I guess I’m just rooting for anything over 1”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Benjamn3 Posted 31 minutes ago Share Posted 31 minutes ago 7 minutes ago, Scraff said: Hear that! At this point, I guess I’m just rooting for anything over 1”. That’s what she said. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted 17 minutes ago Share Posted 17 minutes ago 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: Gefs is starting to pick up on a building -nao and lower heights in the east so now ensembles are diverging too. Seasonal trend is muted lr warmth and blocking has been friendly since beginning of Nov. My gut says the gfs/gefs is probably on the right track. Timing is tricky because we're so used to adding 5 days when flipping warmish to coldish but there's a case to make for a quick transition. Interesting period imo 12z eps with notable colder shift in second week vs 0z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted 13 minutes ago Share Posted 13 minutes ago 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 12z eps with notable colder shift in second week vs 0z Boom 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted 9 minutes ago Share Posted 9 minutes ago both Friday and weekend threats on the EPS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted 6 minutes ago Share Posted 6 minutes ago 25 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said: That’s what she said. Thank you for learning from me and contributing meaningfully, we greatly appreciate that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted 4 minutes ago Share Posted 4 minutes ago 1 hour ago, bncho said: Two different operational runs two weeks out. What do you expect? CAB Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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