December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Ralph Wiggum]

13 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

MERRY CHRISTMAS CHARLIE BROWN!

You talking to Ji or @Maestrobjwa ?

[bncho]

12z Euro loses Friday but has the weekend event. 1-3", more up north

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

You talking to Ji or @Maestrobjwa ?

Instigating clutters the thread too, you know...if that be the standard.

[Ji]

the Euro AI digs the northern stream  south and west....very nice sunday snowstorm for us. 4-6 inches

[Ji]

9 minutes ago, T. August said:

12z euro a dud for Friday. Tragic

i think you may want it to be a dud if you want Sunday which has more potential to have a chance

[WxUSAF]

Bases on the euro’s depiction, it’s pretty clear how only 1 of the 2 can really work out. The shortwaves are just close together. So a stronger Sunday shortwave prevents Friday from amplifying. Confluence on 12z is actually better than 0z for Friday. 

[NorthArlington101]

7 minutes ago, bncho said:

12z Euro loses Friday but has the weekend event. 1-3", more up north

I'll take the Friday night flizzard and the fact that it has a sort of similar idea as the AIFS for Sunday as a win for now. I'm more interested in Sunday but don't think either window is close to dead though not sure both can work out

[Ji]

GFS and Euro couldnt look more different for Christmas Eve

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

GFS and Euro couldnt look more different for Christmas Eve

Two different operational runs two weeks out. What do you expect?

[Ji]

Just now, bncho said:

Two different operational runs two weeks out. What do you expect?

not a 50 degree difference in temps

[Eskimo Joe]

50 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Totally un-scientific but this year, with the amount of cold built up in Canada (SE especially), is just totally different than years past.  I remember we would get good tracks with Highs in the right spots but it would be 31 degrees in Toronto and would do us no good.  I'd be willing to go out on a limb and say we get a region wide "good" one this year.  

I don't disagree with this statement. As you said, in previous year Canada would be torched October and November, so there's no snow pack come winter. Even a 1035 mb high over Quebec would yield us 33 and white rain. This year, it just seems like the cold air is much closer.

[wxdude64]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

not a 50 degree difference in temps

One of the models is showing 100?? 

[Bob Chill]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

not a 50 degree difference in temps

Gefs is starting to pick up on a building -nao and lower heights in the east so now ensembles are diverging too. Seasonal trend is muted lr warmth and blocking has been friendly since beginning of Nov.

My gut says the gfs/gefs is probably on the right track. Timing is tricky because we're so used to adding 5 days when flipping warmish to coldish but there's a case to make for a quick transition. Interesting period imo

 

[winter_warlock]

19 minutes ago, Ji said:

GFS and Euro couldnt look more different for Christmas Eve

Well considering Christmas Eve is 16 days away. I'm sure those models will change 

[NorthArlington101]

AIFS ens have both threats - not sure right now if any of the members hit both, but late Friday clipper and Sunday more substantial storm.

[Scraff]

3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

AIFS has both threats - not sure right now if any of the members hit both, but late Friday clipper and Sunday more substantial storm.

Should we try and trade one in for the other? That always works out! 

[JakkelWx]

11 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Gefs is starting to pick up on a building -nao and lower heights in the east so now ensembles are diverging too. Seasonal trend is muted lr warmth and blocking has been friendly since beginning of Nov.

My gut says the gfs/gefs is probably on the right track. Timing is tricky because we're so used to adding 5 days when flipping warmish to coldish but there's a case to make for a quick transition. Interesting period imo

 

 

but what about the 10 foot wide area of destructive interference over the maritime continent?

[NorthArlington101]

26 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

AIFS ens have both threats - not sure right now if any of the members hit both, but late Friday clipper and Sunday more substantial storm.

EPS is similar - just less interested in both. But still appearing on the means.

[Kevin Reilly]

50 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

AIFS ens have both threats - not sure right now if any of the members hit both, but late Friday clipper and Sunday more substantial storm.

That’s exactly how we roll in a normal winter.  Clipper light 1-3” event followed by coastal storm development 4” or more! 

[Kevin Reilly]

46 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Should we try and trade one in for the other? That always works out! 

No because the Sunday system is needed to bring the cold and set up the baroclinic zone for coastal storm development.

[Scraff]

4 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

No because the Sunday system is needed to bring the cold and set up the baroclinic zone for coastal storm development.

Hear that! At this point, I guess I’m just rooting for anything over 1”. 

[Benjamn3]

7 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Hear that! At this point, I guess I’m just rooting for anything over 1”. 

That’s what she said. 

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

Gefs is starting to pick up on a building -nao and lower heights in the east so now ensembles are diverging too. Seasonal trend is muted lr warmth and blocking has been friendly since beginning of Nov.

My gut says the gfs/gefs is probably on the right track. Timing is tricky because we're so used to adding 5 days when flipping warmish to coldish but there's a case to make for a quick transition. Interesting period imo

 

12z eps with notable colder shift in second week vs 0z

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

12z eps with notable colder shift in second week vs 0z

Boom

[bncho]

both Friday and weekend threats on the EPS

[ravensrule]

25 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said:

That’s what she said. 

Thank you for learning from me and contributing meaningfully, we greatly appreciate that. 

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

Two different operational runs two weeks out. What do you expect?

CAB

[Eskimo Joe]

 

 

[mitchnick]

46 minutes ago, bncho said:

both Friday and weekend threats on the EPS

Eps totally screwed mby with the snow to rain threat last week with 5" 4+ days out, 3" the day before and 2"+ on the 6z run the morning of the event only to get close to 3/4" snow and sleet. I guess it's me, but the Eps are always wrong with accumulations imby.

[WxUSAF]

42 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

12z eps with notable colder shift in second week vs 0z

 

37 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Boom

For reference, it’s colder than 0z, but still has AN temps most of that week. Just keeps the ridge axis more in the center of the country vs over us. But maybe a step toward again muting west coast troughing and an east coast warmup.