December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[Jebman]

52 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

You can see another area of vorticity just barely escape out ahead of our wave. 

I mean this is the GFS at hour 147 and just look at how close our waves are to creating something truly special

Instead it escapes and its all the NS doing work

Ngl for whatever reason I'm feeling this one. We got all the stuff setup at the H5 level and just need something to combine together. 

I want this SO BAD for this entire Sub. I wish there was something I could do. I want to see you all GLUED to the evolution of a super triple phaser in just the right place for the sub to get BURIED ALIVE in The Day After Tomorrow snows! Like six feet, with a trowal that forms right over the sub then refuses to flat out BUDGE for ten days! Imagine the enthusiasm up in here! I'd be so severely distracted lmao!

[SnowenOutThere]

With the 0z HRRR running for the Monday storm I'm going to do a quick breakdown of what we want it to show (as its 18z run was by far the best we've seen for us). I will be comparing it to the 18z Euro. So starting out early in the run the first appreciable difference is that the more northern parts of the shortwave (plus the northern crusher) are weaker compared to the Euro. 

This helps our system out by allowing it to consolidate a bit more rapidly in the plains which in turn allows for an earlier amplification period. However, the real difference is in the confluence up north. The Euro has this running across our northeastern states. 

The HRRR on the other hand has it around 50 plus miles further north keeping the confluence located more in Canada and less across upstate New York. This obviously gives our storm a bit more room to breathe. 

So as the 0z runs its going to be important to see if it maintains these positive aspects. Additionally, it gives us a reference for how the setup would need to look in order to get snow into the subforum proper. 

[SnowenOutThere]

So far (and this is borderline delusional to say) I like the changes that the HRRR has made through the grad total of hour... 15. 

[Ephesians2]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

So far (and this is borderline delusional to say) I like the changes that the HRRR has made through the grad total of hour... 15. 

Love your posts. What do you think about the Euro? Seems like an outlier (and to a lesser extent the NAM 3k) in holding to a relatively weak storm that doesn't bring accumulating snow outside of the Smokies and eastern NC? What are the differences between the way the Euro develops the system and the GFS/Canadian/ICON/HRRR? I imagine it's a stronger trough over New England and/or a weaker shortwave?

[SnowenOutThere]

4 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

So far (and this is borderline delusional to say) I like the changes that the HRRR has made through the grad total of hour... 15. 

Just now realizing how delusional it is to truly be trying to extrap the hour 15 of the HRRR its like this

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

Love your posts. What do you think about the Euro? Seems like an outlier (and to a lesser extent the NAM 3k) in holding to a relatively weak storm that doesn't bring accumulating snow outside of the Smokies and eastern NC? What are the differences between the way the Euro develops the system and the GFS/Canadian/ICON/HRRR? I imagine it's a stronger trough over New England and/or a weaker shortwave?

Thank you! To be entirely honest knowing which model solution is correct goes beyond my forecasting ability as I don't know enough about the synoptics behind storm formation yet (though I am trying to learn). However, I am generally able to identify which runs are better and why in relation to synoptics. I think the main way that the Euro develops the storm to be weaker lies in it having less favorable interactions with the low pressure up north. Looking just at the GFS to Euro we can see the GFS gets the ULL out of the northeast slightly faster so there is less connection between the waves. 

The Euro on the other hand keeps it a little slower with the northern ULL so there is more suppression and reduction in actual ability to form a low. 

Though as I said before this is getting to the end of my knowledge so take it with a grain of salt. 

[bncho]

20 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Just now realizing how delusional it is to truly be trying to extrap the hour 15 of the HRRR its like this

i'm liking the HRRR at hr 35, definitely more north than 18z

[WxUSAF]

Hrrr snows on basically all of us

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 hours ago, CAPE said:

lol pretty radical

That PNA is textbook

[SnowenOutThere]

23 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Just now realizing how delusional it is to truly be trying to extrap the hour 15 of the HRRR its like this

[SnowenOutThere]

29 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

So far (and this is borderline delusional to say) I like the changes that the HRRR has made through the grad total of hour... 15. 

18z

[WxUSAF]

Now just need a real model to show things that far north 

[bncho]

 

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

18z

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

18z

Zoomed in map with pretty much all snow done at this point

[SnowenOutThere]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Now just need a real model to show things that far north 

I mean assuming I got the positive changes from 18z to 0z right at hour 15 (also couldve been an unrelated factor) that is technically the HRRR's wheelhouse? Or am I insane?

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

I mean assuming I got the positive changes from 18z to 0z right at hour 15 (and it was an unrelated factor, which I mean it could be) that is technically the HRRR's wheelhouse? Or am I insane?

Need more support, but I like it

[ravensrule]

Just now, Solution Man said:

Need more support 

Need it more North. 

[SnowenOutThere]

3k NAM is going to make a significant jump north based on the confluence at hour 30. That said, it was a southern outlier at the 18z run but should help @Ephesians2 out

[LordBaltimore]

37 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Now just need a real model to show things that far north 

HRRR and similar CAM's are literally the one thing we do better than the Europeans.

[WesternFringe]

52 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Zoomed in map with pretty much all snow done at this point

I am liking the trends north and the trend towards more amped and organized that I was hoping for in my post last night.

I am west of you in the valley, but have been enjoying your posts lately as someone that has skin in the game at my latitude.  Please keep it up!