December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[mitchnick]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Interesting it shows an AK vortex but still ridging over the west coast. Probably because it is pos tilted. Orientation matters.

Yes, a trough over Japan is always preferred! 

[NorthArlington101]

Lock it in for Friday. 

[frd]

I like this possibility. 

Mike Thomas  @MikeTFox5  1h

 

 

It's early! But definitely intrigued by next weekend. Compared to say, Tuesday, it is looking like a little better chance for the DC area. It's not perfect but again, it is a week out it doesn't need to be yet. Pattern wise definitely like that both -NAO and a 50/50 low are showing up in a lot of the modeling. Again, not perfect...the west could be a lot better and NAO could be more west based...but these are both features we are lacking with Tuesday so them showing up is a good start. Also of note is the Southern Oscillation Index, or SOI. One of my college professors loved the teleconnection that a sharp SOI dive was well correlated with East Coast storms. Well the SOI is forecast to take it's sharpest dive in at least 4 months around next weekend. So something interesting to keep an eye on!

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

17 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Lock it in for Friday. 

Tuesday sets the table. Friday we eat.

[NorthArlington101]

12z EURO not all that interested. Real sloppy looking storm verbatim 

[Ji]

6 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

12z EURO not all that interested. Real sloppy looking storm verbatim 

yea its a warm sloppy disaster

[WxUSAF]

47 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Lock it in for Friday. 

Just finally registered with me that AI gets this started at like lunch time Friday! And it’s cold powder too…

[frd]

 

 

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

56 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

12z EURO not all that interested. Real sloppy looking storm verbatim 

Always we need to wait til we have very established cold to have a chance. With a warmer base state due to climate change I feel like hedging towards warm sloppy mess for the metros makes sense, especially early season.  

[BTRWx's Thanks Giving]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Lock it in for Friday. 

That model has not been good at the surface.  

[mitchnick]

Can someone post the Eps AI snowfall total for the entire run? I have Pivotal and for some reason doesn't have snowfall amounts from that one despite the other info. Maybe it doesn't want me to go blind, idk. Anyway, Tia.

[jaydreb]

38 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Can someone post the Eps AI snowfall total for the entire run? I have Pivotal and for some reason doesn't have snowfall amounts from that one despite the other info. Maybe it doesn't want me to go blind, idk. Anyway, Tia.

[WxUSAF]

How does regular EPS look for the 5-6th?

[Terpeast]

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

How does regular EPS look for the 5-6th?

2-4” dc metro (mean)

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

How does regular EPS look for the 5-6th?

 

[frd]

32 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

That looks consistent with yesterday's I believe, or the day before. But, consistency does not prove accuracy in this case.  Although maybe the ensembles here are better than the AI model itself.  

[frd]

 

Active and cold =   I can dream.    

 

 

 

 

[mitchnick]

Nice influx of cold this week, that's for sure.

[frd]

9 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Nice influx of cold this week, that's for sure.

I keep checking bluesky to see whether HM ( aka Anthony M. )  posted any updats regarding his December weather thoughts.  Not seeing anything. I know someone posted a while back he was enthused for this Jan. 

 

 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 hours ago, jaydreb said:

Man that would be the snowiest December in a a decade down here in Baltimore County.

[WxUSAF]

Happy hour is T-2” for next weekend for many

[Herb@MAWS]

NWS local forecast for Columbia on Friday is some sun, hi 33. Good start for the weekend. 

[frd]

3 minutes ago, Herb@MAWS said:

NWS local forecast for Columbia on Friday is some sun, hi 33. Good start for the weekend. 

Mount Holly for my area late week.   Brrr 

Thursday Night

Partly cloudy, with a low around 19.

Friday

Partly sunny, with a high near 33.

Friday Night

A chance of snow. Cloudy, with a low around 26. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

 

[Ji]

Happy hour is T-2” for next weekend for many

That sad hour

[JenkinsJinkies]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

That sad hour

Not by early December standards.

[Ji]

Okay this winter is getting really old really fast. The 500mb pattern is so flawed. Highs can’t lock in. Weak southern stream. The is no ridge on the west coast. Flat progressive flow. Fantasy storms disappearing. Real storms string out
Phase 8 my as$

[Weather Will]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Okay this winter is getting really old really fast. The 500mb pattern is so flawed. Highs can’t lock in. Weak southern stream. The is no ridge on the west coast. Flat progressive flow. Fantasy storms disappearing. Real storms string out
Phase 8 my as$

Ji is back before Dec. 1!!!!!  Relax dude, a lot of winter ahead.  

[Chris78]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Ji is back before Dec. 1!!!!!  Relax dude, a lot of winter ahead.  

Mid season form

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

10 minutes ago, Ji said:

Okay this winter is getting really old really fast. The 500mb pattern is so flawed. Highs can’t lock in. Weak southern stream. The is no ridge on the west coast. Flat progressive flow. Fantasy storms disappearing. Real storms string out
Phase 8 my as$

OMG!!!!  And in about 3 weeks, the sun angle will start working against us!!  Dogs and cats living together, mass hysteria!!!

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

10 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Ji is back before Dec. 1!!!!!  Relax dude, a lot of winter ahead.  

 

4 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Mid season form

It's the Ji version of a Modiki Nino/-NAO/+PNA/MJO phase 8!!!