December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[yoda]

12z Ukie smokes BR and west 

[stormtracker]

Waiting for the Euro. Just checked the Turkey and it’s about ready, so I got time. 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

12z Ukie smokes BR and west 

That’s very relevant for a ton of us.  Congrats everyone!

[yoda]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

That’s very relevant for a ton of us.  Congrats everyone!

Indeed it is

[TSSN+]

Ukmet 

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

Is it within 5 days or within 3 days where the odds of the snow going poof falls off a cliff?

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Is it within 5 days or within 3 days where the odds of the snow going poof falls off a cliff?

within 3 hours

[WxUSAF]

6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Ukmet 

 

Riding the 0.1” line. A familiar place.

[stormy]

The GFS is now seeing a colder solution for Tuesday, surface and aloft.

[Ralph Wiggum]

Now we have an amped up ~990mb tight to the coast. Preferred the weaker strung out wave we had been seeing tbh. That strength and track is going to torch BL for those areas right near the fall line. Congrats interior tho.

[winter_warlock]

48 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Definitely a different look on the cmc.

 

 

I'm just glad the gem still has the storm 5 days out lol

[T. August]

Purely speculation but this seems like one of those deals where PSU gets 3-4” and 95 gets excited about the first coating of the season.

[stormy]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Now we have an amped up ~990mb tight to the coast. Preferred the weaker strung out wave we had been seeing tbh. That strength and track is going to torch BL for those areas right near the fall line. Congrats interior tho.

The amped shift is cooling the interior.  The amped solution was lost yesterday at this time, warming everything. I dropped from 13 inches white stuff to .60" fr at 12z yesterday.

Will we lose it again?

[NorthArlington101]

AI EURO consistently and stubbornly south - kinda on it's own now if I'm remembering the 12z cycle right. We'll see what its ens do

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

AI EURO consistently and stubbornly south - kinda on it's own now if I'm remembering the 12z cycle right. We'll see what its ens do

Almost identical to 6z

[snowfan]

34 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Waiting for the Euro. Just checked the Turkey and it’s about ready, so I got time. 

JC, Randy. Get a timer lol. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

13 minutes ago, T. August said:

Purely speculation but this seems like one of those deals where PSU gets 3-4” and 95 gets excited about the first coating of the season.

I mean if PSU gets a few inches in the first week of Dec then that usually means there'll be ample activity in that season. At the very least a dead ratter is off the table.

[EastCoast NPZ]

36 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Waiting for the Euro. Just checked the Turkey and it’s about ready, so I got time. 

It's just a little dry...

[H2O]

39 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Waiting for the Euro. Just checked the Turkey and it’s about ready, so I got time. 

Looks under done. I’d let it cook for another couple hours until 18z comes out. Then it should be chefs kiss

[SnowenOutThere]

Euro looks weaker out west and slightly more confluence in the east. 

[T. August]

11 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I mean if PSU gets a few inches in the first week of Dec then that usually means there'll be ample activity in that season. At the very least a dead ratter is off the table.

I think he measured like 5” in November last year - then we had to wait 6 weeks for the lowlands lol.

[TSSN+]

Well this is a different solution. Keep throwing those darts.

 

[bncho]

12z Euro works for me. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

2 minutes ago, T. August said:

I think he measured like 5” in November last year - then we had to wait 6 weeks for the lowlands lol.

That's what an elevation difference will do to you.

[bncho]

randy's got his euro run. we just wait for him to notice

[Ji]

Just now, bncho said:

12z Euro works for me. 

its barely a precip event but its mostly frozen lol

[mitchnick]

I'd rather the Euro be weak at this point instead of a bomb it advertised all last year to no avail. 

[TSSN+]

Just now, Ji said:

its barely a precip event but its mostly frozen lol

Gfs/euro mix and we golden lol

[TSSN+]

Just now, mitchnick said:

I'd rather the Euro be weak at this point instead of a bomb it advertised all last year to no avail. 

Ya there was so many runs it showed getting hammered and was a bust or the one 7” storm we seen it kept showing its as 1-3” till like 24hrs out. 

[mitchnick]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Ya there was so many runs it showed getting hammered and was a bust or the one 7” storm we seen it kept showing its as 1-3” till like 24hrs out. 

It was just a poor model living off an old reputation it lost multiple "upgrades" ago.