December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[clskinsfan]

Looks OK for a thump out this way. Sleety after that. 

[TSSN+]

H5 not as impressive as 6z little messier storm, but it’s still there at least. 

[NorthArlington101]

Yeah, it's not as good. Real issue is we just don't get the rates we need to force a flip with marginal temperatures. Need a stronger and sharper vort and we don't get it this run.

[NorthArlington101]

12z pretty much storm total precip vs. 06z

[Alfoman]

Delicate balance with amplification and placement of the low pressure off the coast with the GFS progression at 500. Would not worry too much into the details as of now, we just need the energy spacing to be close to where it is. 

GFS already doing it's classic energy getting sheared and held out for longer in the SW US though that we saw in the 120-180 hour range all too often last year.

[mitchnick]

Ggem is a light event

[mitchnick]

Ukie looks to be too strong with the High.

[mitchnick]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Ukie looks to be too strong with the High.

Yep...ots

[yoda]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Ukie looks to be too strong with the High.

The cold air press looks stronger than the GFS/GGEM based off the 540 line location 

[WxUSAF]

Gfs with vodka cold next weekend (GGEM agrees), then a clipper goes Miller B for a high ratio powder storm. Lol

[mitchnick]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Gfs with vodka cold next weekend (GGEM agrees), then a clipper goes Miller B for a high ratio powder storm. Lol

It's like watching commercials for Vegas when everybody wins on every spin!

[simbasad2]

[Eskimo Joe]

12z GFS really tries to see something up around the 5th, 8th, and 10th. If we can't score at least climo snowfall then we'll need a regional exorcism.

[Solution Man]

Gang is returning 

[JenkinsJinkies]

How long until the weenies reach the "Bernie math" phase?

[Twilly05]

1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said:

GFS looks like it’ll probably hold to me - don’t quote me if I’m wrong in a few minutes. 

Where is Randy?

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, Twilly05 said:

Where is Randy?

Probably smart enough to wait for a EURO run to show something exciting within 5 days to come back and steer the PBP. For now it's amateur hour.

EURO went from amp'd and raining on us to kicked OTS in 12 hours. 

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Probably smart enough to wait for a EURO run to show something exciting within 5 days to come back and steer the PBP. For now it's amateur hour.

EURO went from amp'd and raining on us to kicked OTS in 12 hours. 

I suspect a Friday return, it’s Thanksgiving 

[mappy]

10 minutes ago, Twilly05 said:

Where is Randy?

He should be along soon. I sent him a text saying everyone was asking for him. He didn’t know models showed snow haha

[mitchnick]

Euro looks south of 0z early on.

[mitchnick]

Trough is more progressive 

[mitchnick]

Ots

[ravensrule]

6 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

I suspect a Friday return, it’s Thanksgiving 

He spends a ton of time basting his turkey. Randy is known as a master baster. 

[stormtracker]

You all know damn well you can't have a proper storm without me.

But seriously, been hella busy with work and now down here in South Carolina with fam for Thankskgiving, I really had no idea until Mappy texted me.  Glad I wasn't checking tho..this one seems to be going in the wrong direction?   I dunno, haven't been following.

 

[WxUSAF]

Something like the euro or GGEM is much more in line with the endless drought trend we’re on with weak sauce light precip.

[mitchnick]

Euro has 12/5 storm

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You all know damn well you can't have a proper storm without me.

But seriously, been hella busy with work and now down here in South Carolina with fam for Thankskgiving, I really had no idea until Mappy texted me.  Glad I wasn't checking tho..this one seems to be going in the wrong direction?   I dunno, haven't been following.

 

All hail, the King! Welcome my liege!

[mitchnick]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Euro has 12/5 storm

2-4"

[Eskimo Joe]

32 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

2-4"

Full climo for the month and we reinvigorate the December 5th Rule. Sold.