December Medium/Long Range Discussion

[bncho]

Just now, TSSN+ said:

Thoughts are you should wait a few days before even considering something 8 days out a possibility. 

damn good point 

[LP08]

Man that first week torch in December really went away.  Snow on the doorstep at 165 of the GFS.

[Solution Man]

5 minutes ago, LP08 said:

Man that first week torch in December really went away.  Snow on the doorstep at 165 of the GFS.

 Nice little event 

[WxUSAF]

1 hour ago, frd said:

SER shifting SE. Modeling has certainly trended to colder outcomes in the East and the SE. .  

 

Seems awfully cold for a torch?

[NorthArlington101]

Got a model run spitting this out at Day 7 and mostly crickets? We've matured.

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Got a model run spitting this out at Day 7 and mostly crickets? We've matured.

We know what happens next

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Got a model run spitting this out at Day 7 and mostly crickets? We've matured.

Yeah why bother? Lol Although I don't care how far out in lala land it is...clown maps like this still make me mad just because of the mere image of the fringeline nobody can explain 

[CAPE]

A well timed trailing wave with cold coming in behind the initial low is a pretty common and uncomplicated way to get  some snow here. The advertised pattern is conducive.

[bncho]

 

17 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Got a model run spitting this out at Day 7 and mostly crickets? We've matured.

I would say we've much less matured rather than being hurt time and time again by rug pull after rug pulls. especially last season in february

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

 

I would say we've much less matured rather than being hurt time and time again by rug pull after rug pulls. especially last year in february

Yea this is a big test of winter expectations and everyone is carrying almost a decade of scar tissue with them

[SnowenOutThere]

22 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Got a model run spitting this out at Day 7 and mostly crickets? We've matured.

Can’t believe it’s only a week out! Definitely our first realistic window with pattern support (and ofc the cmc is delayed)

[bncho]

1 minute ago, SnowenOutThere said:

Can’t believe it’s only a week out! Definitely our first realistic window with pattern support (and ofc the cmc is delayed)

soon we'll get randy's pbp

[TSSN+]

20 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Yea this is a big test of winter expectations and everyone is carrying almost a decade of scar tissue with them

Day 3 is when I’ll start to believe something has a chance. Anything beyond that is meh 

[WxUSAF]

While the “trend colder from mid-range” tendency is fun if it continues, the “trend drier from mid-range” needs to be remembered as well.

[Heisy]

This could get interesting, enough energy rounding the base, more than the GFS, possibly we’ll see….



.

[SnowenOutThere]

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

This could get interesting, enough energy rounding the base, more than the GFS, possibly we’ll see….



.

Lots of good confluence in the northeast too 

[NorthArlington101]

Ends up too warm for close D.C. metro but some snow elsewhere. Works at this range

[DanTheMan]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Ends up too warm for close D.C. metro but some snow elsewhere. Works at this range

As depicted would be enough to open up Ski season at least, hopefully some fun times ahead 

[CAPE]

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Ends up too warm for close D.C. metro but some snow elsewhere. Works at this range

Early Dec climo is a big hurdle for the lowlands. Not impossible because it does happen from time to time. Nice to have something to track however it goes.

[cbmclean]

6 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

To your point. And this Dec 3 “threat” is the day that looked like a mega torch a few days ago.

 

Didn't even check the thread before work as I usually catch up at lunch.  I saw this pop up on my phone while microwaving my lunch and thought if Webb is complaining about a vanishing trough it can't be too bad for us. 

We're going through a it's over/we're back cycle every day now  

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, cbmclean said:

Didn't even check the thread before work as I usually catch up at lunch.  I saw this pop up on my phone while microwaving my lunch and thought if Webb is complaining about a vanishing trough it can't be too bad for us. 

We're going through a it's over/we're back cycle every day now  

Euro has a second light event next weekend and then JB’s vodka rolls into town 

[frd]

Looking better, and hopefully other data in the next week will point to the MJO getting into phase 8 at a lower amplitude, and then enter phase 1. 

 

[adelphi_sky]

1 hour ago, bncho said:

 

I would say we've much less matured rather than being hurt time and time again by rug pull after rug pulls. especially last season in february

I needed therapy after that one. Now I think people learned to suffer in silence. However, 7 days out is better than 10. 

[Daniel Boone]

8 minutes ago, frd said:

Looking better, and hopefully other data in the next week will point to the MJO getting into phase 8 at a lower amplitude, and then enter phase 1. 

 

If realized, that would probably leave it's Mark against a possible hostile otherwise Pattern that Don sees. Interesting Times ahead.

[frd]

6 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

If realized, that would probably leave it's Mark against a possible hostile otherwise Pattern that Don sees. Interesting Times ahead.

That progression would at least  tend to help us based on the opinion of many mets. I did not see Don's post. However, I read here it was using some of the forecast data from the ECMWF weeklies which I do not trust. They can be wrong, and the last two winters when bullish on cold and snow were terrible.  So I feel them showing increased warmth can be incorrect as well. JMHO.

[Shad]

The Euro looks very cold, esp towards the end of the run, we will likely have several chances at flakes the first half of December

[NorthArlington101]

FWIW - AI is more optimistic then the EPS again, so just assume the EPS shows none of this, basically. I'd say 12/50 are a "hit" for the window around the 3rd ... and that's being a tad generous

[Eskimo Joe]

48 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Early Dec climo is a big hurdle for the lowlands. Not impossible because it does happen from time to time. Nice to have something to track however it goes.

Dec 5, 2005, Dec 5, 2009 and Dec 8, 2013 were winners for many. December used to be a light snow month.

[NorthArlington101]

Canadian is out and it's an ice storm... feel like the Canadian always goes ice. Temps are genuinely below freezing DC metro and east almost the whole event but it's close

[bncho]

GEFS has a decent signal (median and mean shown below)