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December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread


Torch Tiger
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I normally would think this is a scraper at best but guidance has been so bad of late that I have to think calculating is damned difficult with an unusual flow pattern that is fast.  I would recommend low expectations but keep the door open for better until Thursday night (0Z/26) runs.

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26 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I normally would think this is a scraper at best but guidance has been so bad of late that I have to think calculating is damned difficult with an unusual flow pattern that is fast.  I would recommend low expectations but keep the door open for better until Thursday night (0Z/26) runs.

I felt 48 hours ago the place to be here would be SNE because I felt despite the block the shortwave would gain enough latitude over the Upper Midwest it would be hard to keep this forced that far SW.  I still think something like the RGEM may happen and some areas of CT might do well between BDL and HVN and W-SW of there.  I am of the belief still NYC changes over to sleet for a decent period and if that happens it probably means CT jackpots.  RI/MA need more help than I think we're going to get.

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6 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

I felt 48 hours ago the place to be here would be SNE because I felt despite the block the shortwave would gain enough latitude over the Upper Midwest it would be hard to keep this forced that far SW.  I still think something like the RGEM may happen and some areas of CT might do well between BDL and HVN and W-SW of there.  I am of the belief still NYC changes over to sleet for a decent period and if that happens it probably means CT jackpots.  RI/MA need more help than I think we're going to get.

These move north at the end so many times. The soundings and 700/850 tracks will matter and whether the snow comes in like a thump or shredded crap. I'm a little hopeful for MBY 30 miles east of Central Park but if this blocking lets up by a hair it's congrats this entire subforum while I drown in sleet. Hopefully there's a way we can all win. 

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