mreaves Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 hour ago, bairn said: Might need to spend a bit more after this season’s start. Should have spent a little less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Eh I mean they are subtle differences but it might mean a lot in sensible wx outcome. I’d say the overall trend on that system has been better than 2 days ago….hopefully we push it just enough south to make it better. I could make a decent argument for either direction right now…on one hand, you have the sfc ridge still cresting over Maine at 12z on Tuesday which would argue the Euro is being way too quick to shove the sfc front northeast…OTOH, it’s not exactly a blocked flow there, so maybe it’s right. I have to look at this over the weekend....I just briefly paid it homage on a wider, synoptic scale on Tuesday, but haven't yet done a deep dive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Euro is dog crap. It’s AI version is much better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I have to look at this over the weekend....I just briefly paid it homage on a wider, synoptic scale on Tuesday, but haven't yet done a deep dive. It’s not a very exciting system so yeah, you can wait a day or two to really say anything about it. The only novelty about the system is it will give a white Xmas to those who can grab a couple inches. There’s a low probability maybe it morphs into an advisory event if we shove it south a little more and it can grab a little more inflow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 2 minutes ago, weathafella said: It’s AI version is much better This will be a constant theme I think…. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: It’s not a very exciting system so yeah, you can wait a day or two to really say anything about it. The only novelty about the system is it will give a white Xmas to those who can grab a couple inches. There’s a low probability maybe it morphs into an advisory event if we shove it south a little more and it can grab a little more inflow. Yeah. Absolutely nothing special about it other than its timing. Just now, ORH_wxman said: This will be a constant theme I think…. It really does seem to be a razor's edge pattern. It could cut either way with warmth/cold and hence our snow chances. This board will have dramatically different viewpoints on January based on what happens the next 10/11 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: It’s AI version is much better I know but starting to doubt it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: It’s not a very exciting system so yeah, you can wait a day or two to really say anything about it. The only novelty about the system is it will give a white Xmas to those who can grab a couple inches. There’s a low probability maybe it morphs into an advisory event if we shove it south a little more and it can grab a little more inflow. Yea, this is probable a "one and done" forecast, like the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: This will be a constant theme I think…. I'm largely ignoring AI guidance this season...they are in AAA in my view. Maybe ready for the big leagues next season...maybe consider as an ensemble at times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, WxWatcher007 said: Yeah. Absolutely nothing special about it other than its timing. It really does seem to be a razor's edge pattern. It could cut either way with warmth/cold and hence our snow chances. This board will have dramatically different viewpoints on January based on what happens the next 10/11 days. The trend has definitely been warmer post-Xmas. I’d be surprised if we did anything wintry on 12/26….even 12/28 is looking tough. The one plus about today’s Euro run (out to 204 so far) is that it’s starting to go nuclear with both the Atlantic blocking and WPO blocking…so that wound set the stage for a pretty good look as we get closer to New Years. We’ll see how it looks as it keeps coming out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago On 12/18/2025 at 12:12 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said: I still suspect the blocking is being overdone, but hopefully we deviate a bit from my seasonal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Not a frigid look but the coldest anomalies are in the right place and not all bottled up on the other side of the globe and no shortage of sw’s traversing the continent. I don’t want to see big blocking combined with a -epo that shunts systems south. Later in the period you see the scandi block retrograde which would support more region wide systems. Really good run and the teleconnections support it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago EPS is def at odds with OP run around 12/28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The trend has definitely been warmer post-Xmas. I’d be surprised if we did anything wintry on 12/26….even 12/28 is looking tough. The one plus about today’s Euro run (out to 204 so far) is that it’s starting to go nuclear with both the Atlantic blocking and WPO blocking…so that wound set the stage for a pretty good look as we get closer to New Years. We’ll see how it looks as it keeps coming out. The trend has certainly been warmer, even up here, but I'm not sold that what we're seeing now is the final word for some of the reasons you explained earlier. Not saying it'll be frigid, but maybe not as warm (or warmer if things break the opposite direction). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NW_of_GYX Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS is def at odds with OP run around 12/28. Toss the op 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I know but starting to doubt it Like was said here a couple days back, and we all need to remember is that both A.I.s are in a huge learning curve at this point. From what I've read (hopefully) every day that passes they'll get better. Problem for the weenies is that may take a couple more years... at least. And there's the ever present data in issue 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago that operational Euro's extended only achieves one thing and one thing only ... why you should never look at an extended range Euro solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Got to love the good 'Ol Fuccuweather push notifications. Just had an alert that mixed precip will be ending this afternoon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 4 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: Like was said here a couple days back, and we all need to remember is that both A.I.s are in a huge learning curve at this point. From what I've read (hopefully) every day that passes they'll get better. Problem for the weenies is that may take a couple more years... at least. And there's the ever present data in issue I heard through the grapevine that they tweaked the model and that some of the solutions have been rather bad, so it makes me wonder about that model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 7 minutes ago, UnitedWx said: Like was said here a couple days back, and we all need to remember is that both A.I.s are in a huge learning curve at this point. From what I've read (hopefully) every day that passes they'll get better. Problem for the weenies is that may take a couple more years... at least. And there's the ever present data in issue I'm curious if they actually can learn enough to improve or is it simply impossible due to too many variables and too much complexity for what it's trying to solve. It's cool that we're going to get to witness how they play out over the next several years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago EPS essentially says we get a lot more favorable after next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 8 minutes ago, Layman said: I'm curious if they actually can learn enough to improve or is it simply impossible due to too many variables and too much complexity for what it's trying to solve. It's cool that we're going to get to witness how they play out over the next several years. I think model data assimilation and initialization is still going to be a big limiting factor. So I’m not expecting anything crazy awesome in the next few years until that part of modeling is improved. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago Just now, weathafella said: EPS essentially says we get a lot more favorable after next week. Fighting SE ridge but the big NAO and WPO blocking is an encouraging sign. If we have that heading toward New Years, I’d feel decent. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted 1 hour ago Share Posted 1 hour ago 14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I heard through the grapevine that they tweaked the model and that some of the solutions have been rather bad, so it makes me wonder about that model. And, they're only as good as what the ingest to begin their calculations. It seem to me that we need better data before "better" computing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kdxken Posted 58 minutes ago Share Posted 58 minutes ago Just had some thunder and lightning from that line moving east in southborough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted 54 minutes ago Share Posted 54 minutes ago 44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I know but starting to doubt it actually pretty awesome if you like warm days. There's like 3 of them across that span ticklin' record taint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted 49 minutes ago Share Posted 49 minutes ago Snow almost gone. 52F. Max gust 37mph. We always rip some good S winds Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted 39 minutes ago Share Posted 39 minutes ago 26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I think model data assimilation and initialization is still going to be a big limiting factor. So I’m not expecting anything crazy awesome in the next few years until that part of modeling is improved. This right here for 100000 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted 29 minutes ago Share Posted 29 minutes ago 27 minutes ago, kdxken said: Just had some thunder and lightning from that line moving east in southborough. Lightning accompanying downpour in Tewksbury 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted 22 minutes ago Share Posted 22 minutes ago 48.6F temperature is now dropping. Heavy rain mixed with small hail. Winds gusting to 43mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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