December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[mreaves]

1 hour ago, bairn said:

Might need to spend a bit more after this season’s start.

Should have spent a little less. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Eh I mean they are subtle differences but it might mean a lot in sensible wx outcome. I’d say the overall trend on that system has been better than 2 days ago….hopefully we push it just enough south to make it better. I could make a decent argument for either direction right now…on one hand, you have the sfc ridge still cresting over Maine at 12z on Tuesday which would argue the Euro is being way too quick to shove the sfc front northeast…OTOH, it’s not exactly a blocked flow there, so maybe it’s right. 

I have to look at this over the weekend....I just briefly paid it homage on a wider, synoptic scale on Tuesday, but haven't yet done a deep dive.

[weathafella]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Euro is dog crap.

It’s AI version is much better 

[ORH_wxman]

4 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I have to look at this over the weekend....I just briefly paid it homage on a wider, synoptic scale on Tuesday, but haven't yet done a deep dive.

It’s not a very exciting system so yeah, you can wait a day or two to really say anything about it. The only novelty about the system is it will give a white Xmas to those who can grab a couple inches. There’s a low probability maybe it morphs into an advisory event if we shove it south a little more and it can grab a little more inflow. 

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It’s AI version is much better 

This will be a constant theme I think….

[WxWatcher007]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s not a very exciting system so yeah, you can wait a day or two to really say anything about it. The only novelty about the system is it will give a white Xmas to those who can grab a couple inches. There’s a low probability maybe it morphs into an advisory event if we shove it south a little more and it can grab a little more inflow. 

Yeah. Absolutely nothing special about it other than its timing. 

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

This will be a constant theme I think….

It really does seem to be a razor's edge pattern. It could cut either way with warmth/cold and hence our snow chances. This board will have dramatically different viewpoints on January based on what happens the next 10/11 days.  

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, weathafella said:

It’s AI version is much better 

I know but starting to doubt it

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

It’s not a very exciting system so yeah, you can wait a day or two to really say anything about it. The only novelty about the system is it will give a white Xmas to those who can grab a couple inches. There’s a low probability maybe it morphs into an advisory event if we shove it south a little more and it can grab a little more inflow. 

Yea, this is probable a "one and done" forecast, like the last one.

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

This will be a constant theme I think….

I'm largely ignoring AI guidance this season...they are in AAA in my view. Maybe ready for the big leagues next season...maybe consider as an ensemble at times.

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah. Absolutely nothing special about it other than its timing. 

It really does seem to be a razor's edge pattern. It could cut either way with warmth/cold and hence our snow chances. This board will have dramatically different viewpoints on January based on what happens the next 10/11 days.  

The trend has definitely been warmer post-Xmas. I’d be surprised if we did anything wintry on 12/26….even 12/28 is looking tough. 
 

The one plus about today’s Euro run (out to 204 so far) is that it’s starting to go nuclear with both the Atlantic blocking and WPO blocking…so that wound set the stage for a pretty good look as we get closer to New Years. We’ll see how it looks as it keeps coming out. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 12/18/2025 at 12:12 PM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I still suspect the blocking is being overdone, but hopefully we deviate a bit from my seasonal.

 

[NW_of_GYX]

Not a frigid look but the coldest anomalies are in the right place and not all bottled up on the other side of the globe and no shortage of sw’s traversing the continent. I don’t want to see big blocking combined with a -epo that shunts systems south. Later in the period you see the scandi block retrograde which would support more region wide systems. Really good run and the teleconnections support it. 

[ORH_wxman]

EPS is def at odds with OP run around 12/28. 

[WxWatcher007]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The trend has definitely been warmer post-Xmas. I’d be surprised if we did anything wintry on 12/26….even 12/28 is looking tough. 
 

The one plus about today’s Euro run (out to 204 so far) is that it’s starting to go nuclear with both the Atlantic blocking and WPO blocking…so that wound set the stage for a pretty good look as we get closer to New Years. We’ll see how it looks as it keeps coming out. 

The trend has certainly been warmer, even up here, but I'm not sold that what we're seeing now is the final word for some of the reasons you explained earlier. Not saying it'll be frigid, but maybe not as warm (or warmer if things break the opposite direction). 

[NW_of_GYX]

4 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS is def at odds with OP run around 12/28. 

Toss the op 

[UnitedWx]

15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know but starting to doubt it

Like was said here a couple days back, and we all need to remember is that both A.I.s are in a huge learning curve at this point. From what I've read (hopefully) every day that passes they'll get better. Problem for the weenies is that may take a couple more years... at least. And there's the ever present data in issue

[Typhoon Tip]

that  operational Euro's extended only achieves one thing and one thing only ...

why you should never look at an extended range Euro solution

[UnitedWx]

Got to love the good 'Ol Fuccuweather push notifications. Just had an alert that mixed precip will be ending this afternoon

[CoastalWx]

4 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Like was said here a couple days back, and we all need to remember is that both A.I.s are in a huge learning curve at this point. From what I've read (hopefully) every day that passes they'll get better. Problem for the weenies is that may take a couple more years... at least. And there's the ever present data in issue

I heard through the grapevine that they tweaked the model and that some of the solutions have been rather bad, so it makes me wonder about that model.

[Layman]

7 minutes ago, UnitedWx said:

Like was said here a couple days back, and we all need to remember is that both A.I.s are in a huge learning curve at this point. From what I've read (hopefully) every day that passes they'll get better. Problem for the weenies is that may take a couple more years... at least. And there's the ever present data in issue

I'm curious if they actually can learn enough to improve or is it simply impossible due to too many variables and too much complexity for what it's trying to solve.  It's cool that we're going to get to witness how they play out over the next several years.

[weathafella]

EPS essentially says we get a lot more favorable after next week.

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, Layman said:

I'm curious if they actually can learn enough to improve or is it simply impossible due to too many variables and too much complexity for what it's trying to solve.  It's cool that we're going to get to witness how they play out over the next several years.

I think model data assimilation and initialization is still going to be a big limiting factor. So I’m not expecting anything crazy awesome in the next few years until that part of modeling is improved. 

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, weathafella said:

EPS essentially says we get a lot more favorable after next week.

Fighting SE ridge but the big NAO and WPO blocking is an encouraging sign. If we have that heading toward New Years, I’d feel decent. 

[UnitedWx]

14 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I heard through the grapevine that they tweaked the model and that some of the solutions have been rather bad, so it makes me wonder about that model.

And, they're only as good as what the ingest to begin their calculations. It seem to me that we need better data before "better" computing

[kdxken]

Just had some thunder and lightning from that line moving east in southborough.

[Typhoon Tip]

44 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I know but starting to doubt it

actually pretty awesome if you like warm days.  There's like 3 of them across that span ticklin' record taint

[Lava Rock]

Snow almost gone. 52F. Max gust 37mph. We always rip some good S winds

[weatherwiz]

26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I think model data assimilation and initialization is still going to be a big limiting factor. So I’m not expecting anything crazy awesome in the next few years until that part of modeling is improved. 

This right here for 100000

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Just had some thunder and lightning from that line moving east in southborough.

Lightning accompanying downpour in Tewksbury 

[wxeyeNH]

48.6F  temperature is now dropping.  Heavy rain mixed with small hail.  Winds gusting to 43mph