December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[dendrite]

13 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Us tomorrow?

 

https://x.com/MyWeatherViewX/status/2001686271148572954?s=20

Typical day for kdxken

[WinterWolf]

2 minutes ago, FXWX said:

8 to 2 pm

Maybe we lose power at school tomorrow morning…lol…we can only hope. 

[Torch Tiger]

The first of last years December cutters (power cutter iirc) was very memorable and wild. Hoping for that

[Ginx snewx]

21 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Us tomorrow?

 

https://x.com/MyWeatherViewX/status/2001686271148572954?s=20

Notice the dry slot. Always the dry slot 

[weatherwiz]

3km remains impressive looking. Really interested to see how we look in the AM, particularly with satellite 

[WxWatcher007]

33 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Us tomorrow?

 

https://x.com/MyWeatherViewX/status/2001686271148572954?s=20

[FXWX]

44 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Maybe we lose power at school tomorrow morning…lol…we can only hope. 

Fielded lots of calls about that today!  The worry about bus routes and tree limbs falling is always a significant concern for many districts.  Many districts will be in the middle of their elementary bus runs as this event ramps up.  But given the fickle nature of tree damage and strong wind events in general, usually nothing proactive you can do in advance; unless we are dealing with the rare case of a true tropical system coming onshore.  Hopefully this event under-performs, like most of our wind events?  But it does have chance to be locally nasty.

[das]

7 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

He’s around. But in his defense, the NWS is really getting hosed. It’s a tough situation for all of them and I’ll just leave it at that. 

It’s awful. Good people doing important work pilloried due to nonsense. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Still have about 1.5" of crust on the ground here....all a dream tomorrow.

[das]

7 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

How have the AI models done up to this point in time, this year?   I don't really count last year - I don't think.  It was just too primitive and sparsely existing.  But now there appears to be an actual competitive market getting going so it should be time to compare verification and scoring 

This is the right question. Last year was prototyping. This year is massive telemetry gathering. Next year is tuning in response to those telemetrics. The one caveat is that observability is nascent so the value of the telemetry gathering is low but sharply increasing. So, the quality of that observability will (is) increasing exponentially, ferreting out bias, low value feedback and creating a positive feedback loop of increasing telemetry quality / observability of high-value output / input (retraining) back into the LLM’s and SLM’s. 

[MJO812]

Gfs solid for the 23-24

[WinterWolf]

We take. 

[WxWatcher007]

Yeah better run for the region.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Yeah better run for the region.

Looks kind of warm to me 

[WxWatcher007]

3 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Looks kind of warm to me 

Definitely warmer down your way, though colder than 18z verbatim. 

[MJO812]

I can see the snowstorm on the gfs near the 30th come north with a better phase.

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

14 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

Definitely warmer down your way, though colder than 18z verbatim. 

Cutting across the region or even north of here isn’t going to get it done.

Id feel good in NNE

[Torch Tiger]

 pretty much everything sucks on that sounding

[Snowcrazed71]

24 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

Cutting across the region or even north of here isn’t going to get it done.

Id feel good in NNE

Dude .. you are broken. You've now joined the ranks of Torch Tiger and Qshmegma 

[Torch Tiger]

https://insightspsychology.org/the-dark-side-of-toxic-positivity/

Examples of Toxic Positivity:

• Telling someone who is grieving, “Everything happens for a reason.”
• Advising a friend going through a tough time to “look on the bright side.”
• Posting on social media with hashtags like #NoNegativity or #StayPositive in the context of serious challenges.
• Shaming someone for expressing sadness, fear, or anger by saying, “You’re bringing down the vibe.”

While these phrases are often well-intentioned, they can invalidate the recipient’s feelings and prevent meaningful emotional processing.

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Dude .. you are broken. You've now joined the ranks of Torch Tiger and Qshmegma 

It’s definitely not as good down his way. Rain on the 23rd while everyone else is snowing would objectively suck. Still time for this one though so nothing is locked. 

[WinterWolf]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s definitely not as good down his way. Rain on the 23rd while everyone else is snowing would objectively suck. Still time for this one though so nothing is locked. 

That would be so poignant though…rain for the chronic and constant curmudgeon…while everyone else snows. Payback from ma nature is such a bitch. 

[dendrite]

8 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Here’s a good sign .  Dendy is not CAD. He’s been rising . It’s coming 

Thanks a lot 

[UnitedWx]

6Z GFS still insisting on the 80s "Rain changing to snow before ending" this afternoon, and even looks to have a little Norlun weenie over Mnt.Tolland  Also still has a decent signal for the 23rd, but I'd feel better if it would trend a little south

[CoastalWx]

Hope for 1-3 on the 23rd and somehow makes it through Christmas Eve night when it finally goes below 32. Other than that overnight runs meh. What a pattern. 

[CoastalWx]

AI models are cooler fwiw on the 23rd. Hope for that especially SoP.

[CoastalWx]

May have a nice squall as secondary cold front comes through in SNE. Hi res shows it this evening.

[CoastalWx]

53 outside. Temp rising faster than Kevin at bear week in Provincetown.

[CoastalWx]

Looks like BOx expanded HWW to the rest of SE MA like we talked about yesterday. Could be an interesting day around here.

[Damage In Tolland]

49 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Thanks a lot 

I saw that lol