December 2025 regional war/obs/disco thread

[Ginx snewx]

43 minutes ago, dendrite said:

Wtf is Maue doing with that product? Pivotal has the actual model derived 10m gusts and it’s nothing close to that at that time.

Don't know what but we are in for a blast.  12/18/23 Pete rePete

[WinterWolf]

Lol..none of those dates ring a bell…meh here WOR….as always, unless Tropical. 

[klw]

in case folks missed the BTV area discussion earlier:

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=BTV&issuedby=BTV&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1

Sfc analysis places powerful and deepening 985mb low pres near Ely
MN, while a 1030mb high pres is acrs the north Atlantic. Upper air
analysis shows sharpening full latitude mid/upper lvl trof acrs the
central Plains, while deep moisture advection continues on a
strengthening south to southwest flow in the 925mb to 500mb layer.
As sfc low pres deepens the 925mb to 850mb wind fields strengthens
overnight into Friday acrs our region. The NAM and RAP both show
progged 850mb winds of 75 to 90 knots, while 925mb winds are in the
55 to 70 knot range, highest over the northern Dacks into the
northern CPV. The difficult challenge continues to be how much
mixing occurs, as the strongest winds are co-located with the axis
of heaviest rainfall. However, given the progged fine line of
convective showers by NAM3KM/HRRR, the embedded heavier down
pours would have the potential to tap very strong winds in the
925mb to 850mb layer and transfer some higher speeds to the sfc.
Given this potential and latest RAP/HRRR soundings showing 500
foot agl winds of 45 to 55 knots, with 59 knots at Malone at
12z Friday, we have expanded the wind advisory. HREF shows 60
to 80% prob of 60 mph or greater winds along the Route 11
corridor and acrs parts of central/northern VT with <30% prob of
winds greater than 65 mph, while indicating 90 to 100% of winds
>45 mph acrs most of our cwa. Did consider High Wind Warning
for northern Dacks, but southeast direction and still some
uncertainty on boundary layer mixing, may limit areal coverage
of 60 mph wind gusts. Still something to watch closely. Also,
have some concerns over southern Greens with southeast downslope
gusts near Rutland, but soundings are showing slightly weaker
low level wind fields and limited mixing due to the moist
adiabatic sounding profile and weak inversion above ridgetop.
Generally thinking wind gusts in the 45 to 55 mph range, which
wl peak between 4 AM and Noon on Friday.

[kdxken]

20 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

We’ll see, but I’ll take the under.  Which is easy to do in the valley anyway.  
I hope Kevin can rip some 50-60 mph. 

Always take the under. The best winds are always from some unhyped front coming through.

[WinterWolf]

6 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Always take the under. The best winds are always from some unhyped front coming through.

Yes. 

[ORH_wxman]

16 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Lol..none of those dates ring a bell…meh here WOR….as always, unless Tropical. 

Xmas 2020 was pretty epic. We lost power Xmas morning. 

[Damage In Tolland]

This screamer reminds me explicitly of the ones we had in Nov: Dec 93-94. Monsters 

[met_fan]

1 hour ago, weatherwiz said:

what in the sam hell. What boundary layer physics/equations are used by the HRDPS? That looks like its mixing down 100% of 925mb lmao. Does it think 10m is 925mb

I don’t mean to be a pretentious ass, but I’ve read “Sam hell” on these forums 50 times over the years, but there is no such expression. It’s Sam Hill. Sorry.

[Ginx snewx]

1 minute ago, met_fan said:

I don’t mean to be a pretentious ass, but I’ve read “Sam hell” on these forums 50 times over the years, but there is no such expression. It’s Sam Hill. Sorry.

We take and twist to our own language. Sorry.

Man 18z Euro get us all white for Christmas 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

2 hours ago, SouthCoastMA said:

got em

 

Like shooting fish in a Home Depot bucket 

[Damage In Tolland]

6 minutes ago, met_fan said:

I don’t mean to be a pretentious ass, but I’ve read “Sam hell” on these forums 50 times over the years, but there is no such expression. It’s Sam Hill. Sorry.

It’s Sam hell 

[met_fan]

3 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

We take and twist to our own language. Sorry 

I’m well aware

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, met_fan said:

I’m well aware

 

[SouthCoastMA]

6 minutes ago, met_fan said:

I don’t mean to be a pretentious ass, but I’ve read “Sam hell” on these forums 50 times over the years, but there is no such expression. It’s Sam Hill. Sorry.

That may be the saying but Hill is still supposed to mean 'hell'. so who cares

 

 

[Ginx snewx]

Those without open ocean directly to their S or SE often don't remember these but hard to forget within 30 miles 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said:

Those without open ocean directly to their S or SE often don't remember these but hard to forget within 30 miles 

Do you remember those 2 in 93? Rippers . I remember tons of tall pines snapped or uprooted 

[Patrick-02540]

15 minutes ago, kdxken said:

Always take the under. The best winds are always from some unhyped front coming through.

The only time winds materialized for me, as forecast or greater, was on 12/23/2022- two weeks before my house generator was installed.  Lost 3 solid trees, roof shingles/flashing (roof needed to be replaced anyway). Also stupidly left a chair on the back deck which took out 12 spindles on my railing.  Power out for three days (right up through Christmas Day), as temperatures had crashed into the single digits.  I do not want to experience that again.

[kdxken]

3 minutes ago, SouthCoastMA said:

That may be the saying but Hill is still supposed to mean 'hell'. so who cares

 

 

Because, If you start letting things slide everything goes to hill.

[met_fan]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s Sam hell 

It’s not, but that’s fine…I’ll move on

[WinterWolf]

15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Xmas 2020 was pretty epic. We lost power Xmas morning. 

Ya, see those didn’t do that much here, no power loss. The 12/23/22 that was the warm rain(blizzard in Buffalo), then temps crashed. But again, no power loss.  But I get it…out east it was different. 

[WinterWolf]

14 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

We take and twist to our own language. Sorry.

Man 18z Euro get us all white for Christmas 

Off hour runs of late look good…on hour runs go the opposite way.  Weird. 

[Damage In Tolland]

The Drake !

https://x.com/danbury_wx/status/2001826392569450513?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

[Damage In Tolland]

Here’s a good sign .  Dendy is not CAD. He’s been rising . It’s coming 

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

The Drake !

https://x.com/danbury_wx/status/2001826392569450513?s=46&t=dhcbvkjmRcyBVQtDxJ3lRg

His scale…”flying no reindeer” what does that mean? Lol.  

[dendrite]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Here’s a good sign .  Dendy is not CAD. He’s been rising . It’s coming 

I still have snow from early Dec melting in my rain gauge. 

[CoastalWx]

Us tomorrow?

 

https://x.com/MyWeatherViewX/status/2001686271148572954?s=20

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I still have snow from early Dec melting in my rain gauge. 

Yeah if this was a meh event you’d be heavily CAD and so would the valley . The signs are there 

[metagraphica]

What time are we thinking for the worst winds tomorrow?

[FXWX]

3 minutes ago, metagraphica said:

What time are we thinking for the worst winds tomorrow?

8 to 2 pm

[WinterWolf]

12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Us tomorrow?

 

https://x.com/MyWeatherViewX/status/2001686271148572954?s=20

Lol…Kevin having an orgasm right now.